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Comment Re:Heavy Lifting (Score 2) 66

Investors are chasing a company that achieves some kind of AI singularity. Let's set aside the fact that there's no reason to believe there is anything but diminishing marginal returns by making marginal refinements to current frontier models. Let's imagine someone hits the jackpot and gets, not even AGI, but a system that's as far ahead of today's frontier model are ahead of 2020's GPT 2.0 in performance.

Globally AI revenues are 150 billion, against a cumulative burn rate of 450 billion. A model that is a generation ahead of others would almost certainly capture the lion's share of that revenue.

If AGI magically appears as a Sam Altman has promised investors it will, a hundred million is way too low. Add, maybe, another zero to the revenues.

Conservatively, a safer assumption is that frontier models will get marginally better based on refinements in training and reinforcement and the other bits and bobs that go into these systems. The nobody is winning the lion's share of anything, at least overnight. But you have to define "safe". By "safe" I mean unlikely to lose money. But some investors are clearly defining "safe" as "having the greatest chance of owning a piece of the biggest thing ever."

I'm not following this super-closely, but if Anthropic is pursuing adding multi-step model based reasoning to their system, that could be the basis of a generational leap in capability. But if that is an approach that looks like it has a chance of working, then their competitors are no doubt pursuing the same thing. In that case you'd expect the revenue pie to grow as the scope of model utilty increases, but that growth to be split among several competitors. This could credibly result in a revenue stream for some of them that is as big as the entire industry's revenue stream today. But there's going to be hell to pay on the data center impacts end of things.

Comment Completely infeffective (Score 4, Insightful) 84

Taking antiviral tablets for 8 to 12 weeks can cure more than 95% of cases.

As any anti-vaxxer like Robert F. Kennedy, Jr will tell you, if it's not 100% effective then it's useless. This drop in Hepatitis C cases can in no way be attributed to an antiviral medication. In reality, it's just people's natural immune system becoming more effective.

Note: if you have to ask, yes it is.

Comment Re:Ivermectin is better (Score 2) 208

which are?

Nothing in particular. Just the inability to move, muscle pain or stiffness, joint pain, and swollen, painful, or tender lymph glands in the armpit to name just a few. And that's just for dosage given under supervision of a doctor. If someone decides to use the horse version, they can have seizures or go blind. This is in addition to other neurologal or gastrointestinal issues. Or death.

So now that you have been factually informed, go ahead and make excuses and/or move the goalposts.

Comment Another of those preclusive authorities? (Score 2) 210

Is insider trading one of those preclusive constitutional authorities the Supreme Court was talking about? Or will this fall under an unofficial act?

It's hard to tell since the Supreme Court has said a president is immune from nearly every crime even though the Founding Fathers said the opposite.

Comment Re:it is destroying evidence like it or not (Score 2) 182

If data that you own is not personal property, then what is it?

This is like saying the words on a page are not personal property, but the paper is. No court would agree to that.

Personal property is anything you own or have possesion of, including intangibles such as stock or copyrights, that is not attached to land or fixed to real estate. Data on a phone falls within that definition. The phone is a physical item you own. It's your personal property. The data within the phone is also personal property, though intangible.

Comment Re:And this is how they miss their $30k price poin (Score 1, Interesting) 103

There are just some people who are too stuck in their ways to ever own an EV.

There are those people who don't want to ask their vehicle for permission before they can drive it. They want to turn the key and go, not be tied to an app or some nebulous company who can disable the vehicle they bought on a whim

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