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Comment Re:Physical Basis (Score 1) 360

Climate models are projections. They show an expected outcome given certain inputs. They don't actually predict how much C02 or methane we'll emit. They don't predict volcanic eruptions. They don't predict aerosol emissions. Each of these has an impact on the climate.

The model can say "if we have a volcanic eruption of this magnitude at this lattitude then we should expect this result", but cannot determine whether, how many, or where we will get eruptions. Plugging real world events into models after the fact can bring them closely in line with reality, That's not a fault of the climate models.

Even still, they do a remarkable job of projecting global warming.

Comment Physical Basis (Score 2) 360

correlation is not causation

It's a little more complicated than that. The underlying mechanism involves the relationship between changing zonal mean temperatures and the strength and position of maxima in the mid-latitude westerly jet. The main condition for resonance is the formation of a zonally-directed waveguide for a particular zonal wavenumber k, which depends only on the wavenumber and the shape of the zonal-mean zonal wind (U) profile. Such a waveguide is present when a mid-latitude region of positive squared meridional wavenumber l2 is bounded by latitudes both north and south where l2 vanishes, inhibiting the dispersion of wave energy and trapping excited planetary waves in the upper troposphere (300–500mb). This can occur for zonal wavenumbers k=6–81,2, with the waveguide found at the equatorward flank of the subtropical jet at latitudes around 30–45N.

Such conditions are typically associated with a profile for U characterized by two maxima in the Northern Hemisphere, i.e. a double jet latitudinal structure. In contrast to a single jet, a double jet regime associated with a profile for U is characterized by a confined sub-tropical jet with sharp edges wherein wind speeds change rapidly with latitude3. Such sharp sub-tropical jets are highly effective waveguides30,31, a central requirement for QRA (quasi-resonant amplification).

The team here has isolated a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art (“CMIP5”) historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets.

Comment Re:Netflicks? (Score 1) 71

People still pay for that stuff? Why?

You do know there are streaming sites out there which remove all the commercials, offer closed captioning, and a selectable quality from 360p-1080p.

I would be totally cool with a working Netflix plugin for my linux-based Kodi installation. I have no problem handing Netflix a tenner every month just to get reliable access to the content they host.

Comment Re:There's no law... (Score 1) 171

There's no law against using an email alias. Why is anyone even talking about this?

Er, because the NY Attorney General is accusing Exxon of contempt of court (though it's up to the judge to rule) because they were using deliberate tactics to obscure official emails from legal discovery.

But yeah, why would anyone want to make a big deal about someone sending and receiving official emails through unofficial channels? I mean, it's not like they should be locked up for it or anything.

Comment Now we know why models underestimated sea ice loss (Score 1) 279

This study may partly explain why models drastically underestimated Arctic sea ice loss:

Possibly sea ice loss due to man made global warming is in line with projections, but natural variability causes the observed melting to oscillate outside of projections. If so we should see the melt rate slow over the next few decades.

Comment Re: Not surprise in the least... (Score 1) 457

...there is nothing un-American about weighing such evidence as we have and leading chants of "Prosecute Her"....

Again, I would agree. If that's what they'd chanted. But it wasn't. The chanters are the people I have no truck with. I applaud anyone with a healthy scepticism toward the application of the law in America... as long as they're focused on fixing the system rather than bringing its injustice and inequity to bear on a different (class of) victim.

Comment Re:You are wrong (Score 1) 308

EVERY. SINGLE. PERSON. I. KNOW. has commented on Vault#7

It is simply not being reported.

That's empirically false, as others have noted.

I think the explanation is vastly simpler than that: Hark back to the Last Week Tonight show when John Oliver warned the world that the NSA could see their dick pics. It was a magisterial take down.

What he didn't count on, though, was that the majority of the population is actually okay with total strangers seeing their dick pics. The thing that makes them nervous, uncomfortable and afraid is when their family and friends see their dick pics. The NSA so far has largely avoided that scenario, and so, apparently, have the CIA.

I'm not excusing this gross legal and constitutional overreach. I'm just saying people care, but not in the abstract. They care in the particular.

Comment Re:Is this news going to bring them more business (Score 2, Informative) 164

If you have nothing to hide, why should it matter either way?

Because the 4th Amendment to the Constitution of the United States explicitly makes this kind of fishing expedition illegal for Federal agencies, and the FBI is arguably breaking the very laws it's sworn to uphold and enforce.

But... aside from deliberate and willful lawlessness which circumvents legal protections the Founders saw fit to write into the foundational law of country... yeah, what's the problem?

Comment Re: Not surprise in the least... (Score 1) 457

Presumption of innocence is essential to a society run by laws, and it says, if you didn't get convicted by a court, you're presumed to be innocent (in the eyes of the law). There's not one iota of ambiguity there.

NOT THE SAME as saying you ARE innocent in reality, only that as far as the law goes, you have the benefit of any doubt (and various legal protections against others acting on their own as if you were guilty).

I take your point. My problem, however, is with people leaping to the conclusion that a person is guilty and therefore that respect for the rule of law requires a conviction.

The implication, of course, is that maybe it's not conducive to civil discourse to lead chants of 'Lock Her Up' at political rallies. Because that's un-American, in the sense that it deliberately and maliciously subverts the fundamental precepts of Common Law. And I'll remind you that respect for the rule of law was the jumping off point for these rants.

But you're welcome to your niggle about other interpretations of guilt. :-)

Regarding OJ, by the way: I have my suspicions about his guilt. But I will not entertain them in my newspaper. Nor should a political leader use such speculation as a rallying cry that has the effect of casting aspersions on him—or on black men in general.

Comment Re: Not surprise in the least... (Score 5, Insightful) 457

... and the conclusion was that 'No reasonable prosecutor would take the case.'

You're assuming that the only reason no reasonable prosecutor would take the case is her innocence.

No, for fuck sakes, I'm saying that you can't defend the rule of law, and then jump straight to a guilty verdict without passing through these interim steps.

My entire point is that it's perfectly fair to complain about the lack of consistency in prosecutorial decision-making. It's perfectly fair to question the FBI's investigative techniques. It's perfectly fair to discuss at length and in detail all of the countless deficiencies that exist in the American criminal justice system. People spend lifetimes doing just that.

But you do NOT get to say, 'That bitch is guilty' when she's never even gone to trial. Not if you stand for the rule of law.

Say, she should be prosecuted, she should be re-investigated, say that what she's doing is dodgy as fuck. I'm right beside you there. Say that she and her husband are conscience-free, calculating sociopaths. Say that she's insincere. Say whatever the fuck you want. But you still don't get to say she's guilty until she's convicted. Not if, as the poster did, you claim to support the rule of law.

Too many people think presumption of innocence is a trivial thing, that it only applies when trials run right. That's not true. Presumption of innocence is essential to a society run by laws, and it says, if you didn't get convicted by a court, you're innocent of the crime. There's not one iota of ambiguity there.

This matters to me because, as a journalist, I regularly see people accused of horrible crimes, and I see the human toll of people who are put through the ringer of social opprobrium. I've seen what happens when vigilante justice prevails, and trust me, you don't ever want to see it happen.

We have the rule of law because we as a society agree to play by the rules. That means that you stop making exceptions when someone that you don't like benefits from those rules. It sucks sometimes, but there it is.

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