https://www.k2think.ai/

"Before LLMs your computer did not prove theorems at all. Now it can prove a lot of them correctly."

Actually that was a bit of hype stemming from one success. The hallucinations and high error rates we see in other types of content have been show to still be present in gpt5 proofs.

The thing still doesn't think, reason, or walk through anything... it still just mindlessly spits out a search engine result listing using a statistics based algorithm. The only reason it looks like reasoned output is because the listing is composed of the reasoned contents it was trained on.

You've been drinking authoritarian koolaid. We've just started using our Constitution again here in the states and we tossed the authoritarians. We seem to be making some inroads in helping the UK and Canada ditch their authoritarians as well.

This is why tariffs on solar panels brought by both parties over the last two decades make no sense. If you actually want to preserve the environment, because it’s in national security interests as well as fucking common sense, then solar panels should be so cheap homeless people use perfectly good ones to sleep under because cardboard is too valuable. Domestic production was less than 1% at the time and now it’s about 1.8% with no possibility of actually competing because the vastly higher costs of domestic production make adoption financially unviable, meanwhile China is on goal to actually be renewable with almost twice the solar installed in may as the entire US last year because it’s cheap power. Instead of adding taxes to stop adoption, a trade war with no price floor would have been amazing and exactly what the world needed flooding the world with nearly free panels. China provided this and the money to keep domestic production afloat would have been trivial compared to the value of all that free power generation capacity, but the American people were taxed into not being able to take advantage so it’s the reverse of what you claim. The financial path was there but the American people were screwed out of cheaper energy by established interests looking to profit at the expense of everyone else.

Does it come back to your hand if you drop it?

Nothing says reliable like non-deterministic output.

But the planks, oakum, and rigging keep getting replaced by the masses as it’s sinking and burning, so is it really the same ship?

"If armed foes with functional and strong economies were so easy to knock over, Japan would have lost the Pacific in "18 months".
It didn't last 18 months. It lasted 48 months."

We started the conflict with Japan from the position of having virtually our entire pacific fleet wiped out. We begin a naval struggle with China having them massively outgunned. We also don't have to topple them, simply overcome their naval resistance, bomb a couple pipelines, and implement a blockade. Once that occurs ALL the opposition is in starvation mode on oil and at that point everything but small arms becomes useless to them and their positions weaken while the US position only continues to strengthen.

"Russia nearly matches the US in oil production"

That isn't even close to accurate with current US production more than 30% higher than Russia and Europe is a non-entity in a global war because they lack the capacity to project force [in fact their military assets are highly dependent on US infrastructure that gets shut off if they for some reason opposed the US. China is the only other significant entity in the conflict and they depend on oil from the middle east.

"And ultimately- I'm pretty confident we'd lose to ground invasion."

You must be kidding. Who is launching this ground invasion? How do you imagine them arriving? And once they've arrived how long do you really think they last against the millions of heavily armed veterans from the last 70 years of continuous war the US has engaged in?

There is also the simple fact that the US is the third most populous nation in the world and the entire military is essentially a veteran professional volunteer military. Russia definitely doesn't have the numbers vs us and China has untested soldiers who are pressed into service. Chinese equipment has failed where tested in battle and the last time our troops clashed the US averaged a better than 10:1 kill ratio on the ground.

Nobody is fielding better air defenses than Russia and Russia doesn't have substantially better air defenses than Iraq did.

"Stealth is not some magical cloaking device. It simply reduces your cross-section."

Which drastically reduces the probability of detecting it in the first place. The F-117 had a radar cross section of 0.003m. Sure, toss enough missiles at it and they eventually got it but that is old tech now and they first had to know it was there. Note, that F-117 is the ONLY US "Stealth" capable craft ever shot down. The F22 is 0.0001 m and 0.001m is insect territory. The new F-47 can stealth WHILE going supersonic, so good luck hitting that thing even after you know it's there.

You are also failing to account for our vastly more advanced jamming, radar, and electronic warfare capabilities and our large and only recently revealed naval drone manufacturing.

"However, it'd be a closer fight than any of them would like, because even all combined- they only outproduce us by about 33%"

I suppose it depends on how you measure it. After we shut down oil to China the war is lost for 'the world' and it's just a mop up operation but I'll grant that becomes an issue of 'how you measure victory' but at that point the US grows stronger and continues to produce more bombs and drops strategic targets while others can't harm the US or build momentum. As for manufacturing capacity, currently the US outspends the globe with only ~3% of it's GDP, in WW2 we ramped up to 40% of our GDP so even if we were only half as serious we'd very quickly crush a 33% edge.

Also a way to circumvent separation of church and state.

Its like those state sponsored road side signs that were popular about 20 years ago that said “Keep your eyes on the road”. Sigh..

Given an error rate of 50%, and an inability to reason even the most basic things like simple addition or comparing two numbers and returning which is larger or smaller, they can’t be used for any informative purposes whatsoever. The only thing llm are fit for is taking an existing document template example, and filling it in with ever so slightly different information. Even then it requires a human to proof read. Things like coding are straight out the window, completely useless unless you already know how to do and fix everything, it that case it might speed you up slightly if it’s massive blunders don’t waste more time than it saves.

This is like saying home loans aren’t race based, but if your black you might not get the home you want. It’s still illegal for obvious reasons, it’s not a credit based system anymore with those caveats.

Colleges get plenty of money from students, the more students the more money. Sure, some things like private donations don’t scale with attendance but with more alums then it’s likely you will get more donations down the road. Some government funding, like for state run schools, actually do scale with attendance. So in short there is artificial scarcity because many of the top institutions aren’t actually merit based institutions where the best minds go to learn, it’s an old boys club that’s exclusive to keep out the wrong people and it’s more about how much your family donated than actual brains which goes against the principles DEI is supposed to stand for and what is being sold as the founding principle of their reputation even if they let in a couple of tokens to appease the masses.

In a zero sum scenario, where pretty much all schools have that policy, those students definitely do not receive as “good” an education because the schools with better funding and reputation become full. The system is no longer a merit based system, though with the nepotism and generational wealth dependence perhaps they never were, but it’s been sold as true.

Perhaps not in a pure capitalistic sense, but many countries not only have free student housing, but free college as well. Further, college costs tend to be higher and there isn’t the same incentive to keep costs down with unforgivable student loans so colleges can just build and build unnecessary things and keep getting students to pay. You do realize how limiting education with artificial scarcity or scarcity through incompetence is bad for everyone, right?

Yes because they quite literally are held down by their situation, instead of those who had every resource available and simply aren’t skilled and thus don’t deserve in a merit based system. But it’s also obvious they don’t perform as well as if they had resources from birth. LeBron would be amazing at basketball even if he was forced to not play or train till 18, I’m sure far outperforming the average person with that same history, but it’s obvious he wouldn’t be at the top of his game just as someone who was never properly educated because they didn’t have somewhere to sleep, or food to eat, or proper school supplies until college.

Sure, of course we didn't all know about the genocide at the time. We did know about them hawking their domestic information control technology [the wraps around the genocide was likely part of the sales pitch]. I think the bigger issue would be the wealthy socialists buying the organs and the population control tech.

It’s easy to pull yourself up by your bootstraps when you can afford 5 thousand horsepower microturbine engines to fly your ass wherever you want to go.