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Comment Re: Capacity !=production (Score 2) 97

not in a world with mainstream EVs

I'm not particularly worried about it. Our ability to build and deploy Wind and PV (measured in GW capacity) is much larger than our ability to build and deploy EV batteries (measured in GWh capacity). China is deploying around 1 GW of new PV per day within its own borders, and exporting a huge amount to other countries. Meanwhile, the estimates of China's battery manufacturing capacity (EVs, stationary, portables) is on the order of 10 GWh/day.

As you rightly point out, capacity (GW peak) is not the same as production (GWh). A 1-GW solar array won't produce 24-GWh of electricity in a day. For a decent site, you might get a 15% capacity factor, or 3.6 GWh. That's less than the new battery capacity per day - we can't win! But just like there's a capacity factor for renewables, so too is there one for EVs: hardly anyone is filling and discharging their entire battery every day. In fact, most folks don't use more than 20% of their available capacity per day.

They are both growing, but I think that electricity production can stay ahead of demand.

Comment Re:developer market share (Score 2) 118

In short, Java was invented for a reason, and while it has become a victim of legacy cruft as well, the underlying concept of truly portable apps, with a minimum of fuss to jump from platform to platform, still ought to be the preferable path. The problem is that that true platform neutrality/ambiguity pretty much kills Microsoft in all but a few niches, like gaming, but only because hardware vendors put less effort into drivers for other operating systems.

Yes, Office is still king, although I think that crown is beginning to slip, and it may end up being Excel, with its large list of features, that may last the longest. But it isn't 1990, or even 2000 anymore. Developers have multiple ways of developing portable applications, and while MS may (for the nth time) update or swap out its toolchains, the real question is will developers really care?

Comment Re:What good is AI (Score 1) 50

Good question. My understanding is this: we're being nudged toward an era where there are only a few powerful computers, we don't own them, but we rent computing power from them. To use in our dumb terminals. Not too much unlike an era we had a few decades ago.

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers" - Thomas Watson

Comment Re:The fusion delusion strikes again (Score 2) 55

While it is an enormous problem, possibly the most significant, we know how to shield against radiation, but it's going to take mass in the form of hydrogen-rich molecules like water or polyethylene (as examples). To solve that problem we are either going to have to make launches a lot cheaper, or figure out how to do it all in orbit.

It's at the edge of our technological capacity to produce such a spacecraft now, so the barrier is economic. That's a massive barrier, but in theory we definitely could, if we put a significant percentage of GDP of the wealthiest nations towards the project, produce a spacecraft that keep astronauts alive and relatively protected from ionizing radiation both on the journey and while on Mars.

As to your general assholery, I guess everyone has to have an outlet, though why Slashdot is a bit mysterious.

Comment Winner of the Pulitzer (Score 3, Interesting) 39

Soul of a New Machine is a really fun book from the standpoint of the technology and culture of the time. But let's not forget it was widely regarded as just awesome writing: it won the Pulitzer and the National Book Award for nonfiction.

Tracey Kidder also wrote Mountains Beyond Mountains, about Dr. Paul Farmer and the work of his medical non-profit Partners In Health. Another excellent read.

Comment Weapons of Math Destruction (Score 4, Informative) 73

These kinds of poor outcomes were described thoroughly in the book "Weapons of Math Destruction" by Cathy O'Neil. She cites examples in bail / parole recommendation algorithms, HR screening tools, insurance, etc. In her view, a WMD is a computer system that has some/most of these characteristics:
* that makes serious decisions affecting people other than the person using the tool,
* uses proxy measurements (zip code, socioeconomic status) for the thing they're actually trying to quantify (e.g., risk of recidivism),
* whose inner workings are opaque, and/or built on data of unknown provenance,
* are not or cannot be corrected in light of new data or mistakes,
* are difficult or impossible to contest,
* have little to no regulation.

That was published in 2017, well before LLMs and AI really hit the scene. But the dangers were already apparent even then, and f*&k-all has been done to mitigate them.

Comment Re:Color me skeptical. (Score 1) 312

Large amateur rockets can achieve >Mach5 , which qualifies as hypersonic. You could probably build something like that for
You couldn't build, transport, and launch one for that kind of money - the ground infrastructure and permitting would be onerous and expensive.

Nor do amateur rockets carry munitions in hypersonic glide vehicles. So that part is worthy of skepticism.

Comment Re:Illegal (Score 4, Informative) 73

In case anyone is curious, this is illegal.

So is launching a war in Iran without Congressional approval. So is cancelling funding mandated by Congress. So are foreign gifts, emoluments, and self-dealing. So is federalizing the National Guard on false pretenses. So is putting a sitting president's mug on a coin. And yet...

Comment Re:Really? (Score 1) 46

Ah, just remembered, "maximising shareholder value" is a sort of value.

"Greed...is good. Greed is right. Greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Greed in all of its forms - greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge - has marked the upward surge of mankind. And greed, you mark my works, will not only save [OpenAI], but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA. Thank you very much." [ref"

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