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Comment Re: Capacity !=production (Score 2) 110

not in a world with mainstream EVs

I'm not particularly worried about it. Our ability to build and deploy Wind and PV (measured in GW capacity) is much larger than our ability to build and deploy EV batteries (measured in GWh capacity). China is deploying around 1 GW of new PV per day within its own borders, and exporting a huge amount to other countries. Meanwhile, the estimates of China's battery manufacturing capacity (EVs, stationary, portables) is on the order of 10 GWh/day.

As you rightly point out, capacity (GW peak) is not the same as production (GWh). A 1-GW solar array won't produce 24-GWh of electricity in a day. For a decent site, you might get a 15% capacity factor, or 3.6 GWh. That's less than the new battery capacity per day - we can't win! But just like there's a capacity factor for renewables, so too is there one for EVs: hardly anyone is filling and discharging their entire battery every day. In fact, most folks don't use more than 20% of their available capacity per day.

They are both growing, but I think that electricity production can stay ahead of demand.

Comment Re:What good is AI (Score 1) 50

Good question. My understanding is this: we're being nudged toward an era where there are only a few powerful computers, we don't own them, but we rent computing power from them. To use in our dumb terminals. Not too much unlike an era we had a few decades ago.

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers" - Thomas Watson

Comment Winner of the Pulitzer (Score 3, Interesting) 39

Soul of a New Machine is a really fun book from the standpoint of the technology and culture of the time. But let's not forget it was widely regarded as just awesome writing: it won the Pulitzer and the National Book Award for nonfiction.

Tracey Kidder also wrote Mountains Beyond Mountains, about Dr. Paul Farmer and the work of his medical non-profit Partners In Health. Another excellent read.

Comment Weapons of Math Destruction (Score 4, Informative) 73

These kinds of poor outcomes were described thoroughly in the book "Weapons of Math Destruction" by Cathy O'Neil. She cites examples in bail / parole recommendation algorithms, HR screening tools, insurance, etc. In her view, a WMD is a computer system that has some/most of these characteristics:
* that makes serious decisions affecting people other than the person using the tool,
* uses proxy measurements (zip code, socioeconomic status) for the thing they're actually trying to quantify (e.g., risk of recidivism),
* whose inner workings are opaque, and/or built on data of unknown provenance,
* are not or cannot be corrected in light of new data or mistakes,
* are difficult or impossible to contest,
* have little to no regulation.

That was published in 2017, well before LLMs and AI really hit the scene. But the dangers were already apparent even then, and f*&k-all has been done to mitigate them.

Comment Re:Color me skeptical. (Score 1) 312

Large amateur rockets can achieve >Mach5 , which qualifies as hypersonic. You could probably build something like that for
You couldn't build, transport, and launch one for that kind of money - the ground infrastructure and permitting would be onerous and expensive.

Nor do amateur rockets carry munitions in hypersonic glide vehicles. So that part is worthy of skepticism.

Comment Re:Illegal (Score 4, Informative) 73

In case anyone is curious, this is illegal.

So is launching a war in Iran without Congressional approval. So is cancelling funding mandated by Congress. So are foreign gifts, emoluments, and self-dealing. So is federalizing the National Guard on false pretenses. So is putting a sitting president's mug on a coin. And yet...

Comment Re:Really? (Score 1) 46

Ah, just remembered, "maximising shareholder value" is a sort of value.

"Greed...is good. Greed is right. Greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Greed in all of its forms - greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge - has marked the upward surge of mankind. And greed, you mark my works, will not only save [OpenAI], but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA. Thank you very much." [ref"

Comment And nuclear propulsion (Score 3, Informative) 73

Missing from the summary is this tidbit:

NASA will launch the Space Reactor1 Freedom, the first nuclear powered interplanetary spacecraft, to Mars before the end of 2028, demonstrating advanced nuclear electric propulsion in deep space....
When SR-1 Freedom reaches Mars, it will deploy the Skyfall payload of Ingenuityclass helicopters to continue exploring the Red Planet. SR-1 Freedom will establish flight heritage nuclear hardware, set regulatory and launch precedent, and activate the industrial base for future fission power systems across propulsion, surface, and longduration missions.

So, a nuclear-electric tug between Earth and Mars, and more helicopters on the red planet. That seems 1) much more likely to happen than the lunar base plans, and 2) very exciting technologically.

Comment Chandra is a marvel (Score 5, Interesting) 27

Let's bear in mind that Chandra has been in orbit for over 25 years. Not quite as long as Hubble, but from the same era. Unlike Hubble, it was not made for servicing or upgrades - it's the same hardware that Columbia launched in 1999. At over 20 tons, it was the heaviest payload every launched by the shuttle. And folks reckon it has at least ten more good years of operation ahead of it.

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