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Comment Re:Not entirely bad (Score 1) 41

This is just the latest escalation in a long-running arms race that incentivizes both sides to spam and use automation. It goes back at least as far as employers using keyword filtering. Now with AI-generated applications, AI-hosted interviews, and ghost jobs, the process is so completely broken that hires rarely happen without "connections." It's turned previously somewhat-meritocratic job markets into the pure cronyism of a corrupt 3rd world country because that's the only hiring option that hasn't been ruined by automation.

Unfortunately applying for 100 jobs doesn't mean getting invited to 100 computerized interviews these days, on average you'd get a number of interviews you could count on one hand, so things are far worse for job seekers who have clearly lost the arms race and are getting absolutely massacred.

I've heard people propose attaching fees to job applications to keep job seekers from growing the haystacks with spam, and while it would work to do that it would also act as an inequality accelerator. But if there were some system in place to limit the number of applications that job seekers could send and punish companies that post ghost jobs it would greatly improve the system.

Comment Re:Erm... (Score 2) 137

It will never cost that little. A Falcon 9 has about 400 tons of propellant. If it were all commercial diesel, it would cost $400,000, or $17 per kg of weight launched to LEO. But of course it's not commercial diesel. Liquid oxygen and RP1 are both much more expensive.

Starship burns methane, not RP1.

Between SuperHeavy and Starship, a fully-loaded stack needs 3500 tons of LOX and 1000 tons of CH4. So what do those cost?

Well, oxygen is easy to get from the atmosphere, so the cost of LOX is really just some equipment (which isn't terribly expensive to buy and maintain) plus electricity, and the cost ends up being dominated by the cost of electricity. It takes between 150 kWh and 800 kWh to separate and liquify a ton of oxygen, so if you're paying $0.10 per kWh, LOX costs $15-80 per ton. There are some other costs to handle and store it, so let's say $100/ton.

CH4 can be created many ways. The cheapest is probably to purify natural gas, which costs about $190 per ton (that site shows ~$5 per 1000 ft^3, and a ton is 38k ft^3). Add some costs for purification and cooling, so call it $250/ton.

3500 tons LOX * $100/ton + 1000 tons CH4 * 250/ton = $600k. Musk usually calls it $1M, which seems pretty reasonable, since they're probably not separating/purifiying it themselves and there transportation costs. 150 tons of payload to LEO with $1M worth of fuel means the fuel-only cost is $6.67/kg.

Comment Re:Erm... (Score 1) 137

we have enough accumulated knowledge that just getting to orbit shouldn't be accompanied by a string of failures like Starship has been having

Nonsense. Our only experience with reusable orbital rockets is the space shuttle, which was an unsustainably-expensive and complex beast that was more refurbishable than reusable and had a payload one fifth of what Starship is designed for. It's all of the differences that aim to make Starship both reusable and cheap that make it hard. It's possible that it's just too ambitious, that we don't yet have the technology to make a cheap, fully-reusable (not refurbishable, reusable) orbital rocket with massive capacity. No one else has done it... no one else is even trying, that's how hard it is.

Failure is expected. If they managed to launch and land both Starship and SuperHeavy in less than a dozen test flights, that would be the surprise.

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