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Comment Re:Such efforts usually or always fail (Score 1) 70

> Every roadblock you have mentioned is merely a prejudiced perspective that needs to be overcome

I'm very certain that physical compatibility is more than "prejudiced perspective." Fuck man it took twelve years to decide on a connector standard in North America and that doesn't even impact the size and shape of the vehicle like a battery format would.

> Battery swapping *IS* the way forward until the tech changes

You know that even among vehicles that are swap-capable, the most common form of recharging is like, still plugging in same as non-swap-capable vehicles, right? Swapping is just one solution to an edge case.
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Comment Re: small service center or car wash (Score 2) 70

> unlikely to be insurable

This is in China.

But if you want to make it US/EU-centric, I just need to point out that we have zero problems putting stockpiles of flammable and explosive materials right next to commercial and even residential zoning.

> Or are all those videos of EV fires that can't be extinguished fake news?

Yes, because they absolutely can be extinguished. There are published procedures for extinguishing EV battery fires (spoiler alert: It involves water, and not even all that much water if done properly) and safely handling them after they are out. You have a lot of ignorant people saying what you are saying without evidence, when there is lots of evidence to the contrary.

> I do know they managed to ignite the worry in me.

Ignorance tends to have that effect on people, yes. My sympathies but the situation can be fixed through learning.

No, EV batteries do not "make their own oxygen."
No, EV batteries can not burn underwater.
No, putting water on an EV battery fire will not cause the lithium to burn/explode.

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Comment Re:Such efforts usually or always fail (Score 2) 70

> You just said there's no infrastructure needed, and then describe putting up thousands of buildings around the place.

You're ignoring the context; "you STILL need to build charging infrastructure anyway" - you do not, at least no more than any other business would need infrastructure which is already local and existing. Contrast to "charging infrastructure" which invokes mental images of huge cabinets of electrical equipment and rows of kiosks all out in the middle of nowhere.

> That's a lot of investment for no current customers

Nio has sold over 750K vehicles and they've only been in business like, seven years? They have customers. I use Nio specifically because they are the only company that's doing this on any scale worth discussing of course.

And I guess it needs to be pointed out after all; You can still charge the cars "normally" using L1/L2/DCFC systems, including home charging. You don't NEED to swap the battery every time...
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Comment Re:Adversarial Noise (Score 1) 57

> Convolutional neural networks are NOT "behind nearly all generative AI models today", as Benn Jordan so casually states. LLMs overwhelmingly use transformer architectures which do not use convolution.

Correct, but the generative models being discussed are music and visual, not language. Would you like to guess what kind of neural network is most common in those applications? (Hint: if you actually watched the video, he explains that the processing of audio is mostly done using visual/spacial algorithms by converting to and from spectrograms)

> Benn Jordan is a musician, not a technologist

Correct, though because he is a musician he has a big stake in the issue of AI use and training/theft. Again, if you watch the video, he's working with actual researchers and is taking the role of a science communicator rather than a principal developer.

> Embedding information in audio streams has been proven for decades to always be audible

You did not watch the video. You also clearly didn't bother to do any lateral reading.

> it reflects a flawed mentality that says that destroying the work of others should be the goal

Destroying who's work, exactly? The AI companies? If someone is stealing your work, I don't see why anyone should defend or facilitate that behavior. If they want to train their AI on my work, they can negotiate a licensing deal for the non-poisoned versions. (And if your argument against that is it would be too expensive or laborious to get permission from all the authors and artists whose work is used to train AI, then you may as well just admit in plain language that your favorite hobby horse requires IP theft to exist...)

> Sure, if you're technically illiterate you'd believe that.

Man you sure do love being wrong don't you? If it wasn't a problem there wouldn't be so much research into solving the problem.
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Comment Re:Such efforts usually or always fail (Score 4, Informative) 70

There is almost no infrastructure required for this; It's a single building about the size of a small service center or car wash. In there is all the charging infrastructure you need, too.

The problems with battery swap are nothing related to what you mentioned. The real hurdles to mass adoption are questions about battery ownership, standardization, and to a lesser extend vehicle integration.

Since an EV is useless without a battery, laws in some countries (like the US) make selling an EV without a battery basically impossible. Even if you lease the battery separately. It would be akin to selling a new car without an engine; since it's not in a functional state, it can't be sold as a road-worthy vehicle. Countries like China don't have this hurdle so manufacturers like Nio and BYD have been rolling out that kind of business model - Nio alone has thousands of swap stations.

Standardization also generally means you are vendor locked. The battery pack needs to be physically and electrically compatible with your vehicle. It's not impossible but it's very unlikely that the industry will develop such standards especially when it puts hard constraints on the shape and size of the whole vehicle that needs to be build around the pack. Again, not a problem for single manufacturers but if you buy a Nio you will only ever be able to use battery swapping at Nio locations.

Finally integration; To reduce costs some manufacturers (read: Tesla) tightly integrate the battery pack into the structure of the vehicle making it impossible swap without a multi-day ordeal. Imagine trying to battery swap the Model Y where the top of the battery casing has the front seats and center console bolted to it, because it's also the floor of the cabin.

> With that factored in, what are you paying per swap? 3-4x what normal recharging would cost?

From what I understand, Nio charges a flat fee of 180 renminbi, or about US$25, per swap. I'm aware of some schemes that also charge based on battery SoC but I don't think Nio specifically uses that business model. Remember; under this system you do not own the battery, you're basically renting it. This also makes the car cheaper up front.

> Besides, battery tech is improving daily. Increasingly seeing mentions of 5-6min recharge times.

I have not seen any credible demonstrations of "5-6 min recharge times" though I've seen plenty of sensationalist tech news headlines about the possibility of such... relatedly, a battery swap does take about 5 minutes.

And the fact that battery tech is constantly improving is an argument in favor of the swap model, since you can potentially upgrade to a better battery automatically at no cost or inconvenience.
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Comment Re:Adversarial Noise (Score 1) 57

Adversarial noise isn't "noise" like static or random junk. It's specially crafted to make the model see things that aren't visible to humans, to alter their behavior.

Benn Jordan created a pretty good video about audio-specific implementation. Examples include perfectly normal sounding audio clips tricking digital assistants into thinking they're getting voice commands and having music completely misidentified. The practical application means an artist can apply adversarial noise to their work and have it sound perfectly normal to a human audience, but any generative model that tries to train on it will end up producing inappropriate and useless output.

There are also methods to do similar with images. Text may be a bit harder but it's still possible with websites through embedding or invisible text and similar tactics.
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Comment Re:Only China (Score 2) 112

> How many countries have deep decarbonized their electric grids with just solar and wind energy?

China's carbon emissions have dropped 1.5% so far this year, versus last year, despite total energy demand growing by about 10TWh in the same period. Maybe not "deep" or whatever but they are investing heavily in decarbonizing, and succeeding, while still growing quite quickly.

None of that was new nuclear power by the way; All of the plants they said they were gonna built between 2020 and 2035 are either still under construction or planning stages. Assuming they meet their goals and build all of them they will have added 500GW to their production... and another 3000 GW just in solar if they maintain the pace they were putting it online in 2024. A testament to how slow and expensive nuclear power actually is for addressing the problem.
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(And more than 3000 GW of wind at current pace)

Comment Re:seen this movie before (Score 1) 276

Selecting office software is not a political statement

That's right, it's not a statement. It's just a position. You either hold the position that it's ok to be dependent on a third party and it's ok to fail if that third party turns against you, or you hold the position that it's not ok and you would prefer to stay up no matter what adversaries want.

It only becomes a statement once you tell someone that security and reliability are among your values. ;-)

Comment Re:Hmm. and what about everything else ? (Score 2) 276

Scale isn't the main problem, interoperability is. If you've solved interoperability (i.e. you've got SPF, DKIM, etc working so gmail.com and outlook.com will receive emails sent from your system) then you're in good shape.

Not that running large systems is necessarily easy, but it doesn't have enemies the way interoperability has enemies. Scale is a merely conventional problem that Google and Microsoft aren't making worse for Linux users. Nobody's pushing back, trying to make you fail; your only foe is savage reality.

And man-vs-savage-reality is a pretty nice conflict to be involved in, compared to man-vs-man.

Comment How would one measure this? (Score 4, Insightful) 53

How do they measure this? Did all the pirates magically agree to put Google Analytics on their web pages and share reporting with Muso? Or, in accordance with The Pirate Code (?!) do all pirate pages request the browser load http://muso.com/arr-trackme-1x... and (again, in accordance with The Pirate Code, I guess) the visitors configure their browsers to whitelist and load it? I am skeptical of any third parties who claim they "track" pirate site visits.

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