It's the US and Israel attacking Iran. The Iran strategy is reportedly to hit trade in nearby countries forcing them on the side of Israel in order to undermine their governments and cause chaos. This explains why they are currently not hitting back militarily at Iran.
"Have you seriously never heard of polymarket"
No.
Using
How do you know this to be true and what steps could I take to verify the claim? Here's a cherry picked "Hillary Clinton Declares 2016 Democratic Presidential Bid" slashdot article from a decade ago (April 2015) https://politics.slashdot.org/... for illustration.
Today's scientific question is: What in the world is electricity? And where does it go after it leaves the toaster? -- Dave Barry, "What is Electricity?"