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Comment Re:They be dead. (Score 2) 19

Funny thing is Claude is pretty much the only AI I regularly use for coding

Me too, but that doesn't address the OP's concern. I use Claude Code almost daily for multiple side projects. I have the $200 per month max plan, but my ccusage metrics show I use about $1500 in API-equivalent tokens per month. And that is on top of my regular Claude web chat usage, and I run over a hundred deep research sessions per month too. I estimate that is about $500-1000 in additional API-equivalent tokens per month. API use may be profitable for Anthropic, so that doesn't mean they are losing $2000 per month on my subscription, but I bet their losses on my account are at least $1-1.5k monthly. I realize I am an extreme example, but any huge influx of users to any of these providers does mean an increase in their burn rate (not an increase to profits).

That said, none of these losses will matter in the long run. All that matters is whether they can start replacing human labor. $1 trillion in AI spending is nothing if AI can do 10% of white collar work. That would represent $2-3 trillion in value every year. The fact we have only seen about $1.2 trillion in AI investment over the past 5 years shows investors aren't that confident AI can replace that many jobs. If they were, they would be investing 5 times as much.

I am a pretty big proponent of Anthropic's models, and I lead a $80+ billion dollar company's AI platform strategy pod within our corporate strategy department. Winning over someone like me has a significant impact on Anthropic's ability to win more lucrative corporate deals. My company can afford to spend $100 per day on a continuously running agent as long as it can replace a human employee ($35k/yr vs $50-$150k/yr).

Comment Re:The real problem is going to be training AI (Score 1) 62

Most of it came from open source projects and other public code repositories.

There are trillions of lines of code in all public code repositories, and hundreds of millions of lines of code in stack overflow pages. That puts stack overflow at about 0.01% of the contribution to these coding models. Maybe closer to 0.1% contribution considering there is more explanation for the code in stack overflow than there is in your average codebase.

Comment Re:Explains why food got so expensive (Score 1) 95

Someone already mentioned that the US already has a large amount of idle and abandoned arable land, but here are the actual numbers:

Active Cropland: 338 million acres
Pasture Only: 12 million acres
Idle Cropland: 39 million acres
Abandoned Cropland: 30 million acres

Hines Research Data Center Land Needs 2025-2030: 40,000 acres

So even if all new data centers are built on arable land, we would need to activate about 0.06% of our idle or abandoned cropland. This is a non-issue.

Comment Re:Mostly agreed, but... (Score 1) 53

You can't have a "deliberate product strategy" when inventing totally new stuff

That is 100% true. But it also isn't how trillion dollar companies get their valuations. They get it by having a deliberate product strategy and a strong moat that will defend their revenue for decades to come.

Comment Re:Not worried about the refund (Score 3, Insightful) 227

It's only $175B

That's about $500 per person in the United States. For many families, that's a big deal and would make a significant difference to them. It was taken through an illegal tax and should be returned to them.

It won't be returned to families. It will be returned to the companies that paid the tarrifs and have already passed along those costs to consumers. There will be no incentive to pass down these refunds to consumers.

Comment Re:Let's hope for our collective sakes... (Score 2) 50

That would be nice. But remember that the LLM-stupidity is currently all props up the US economy? And that the business numbers of all of them are utterly catastrophic?

AI isn't propping up the US economy. It is just keeping us out of a recession. If we had a recession it wouldn't be the end of the world. It would probably be pretty healthy in the long run.

Comment Re:We can only hope (Score 2) 50

We all know there is an A.I. bubble.

I doubt the AI bubble bursting is going to make you any happier. It will slow down the advancement of AI as much as the .com bubble slowed down the growth of the Internet and the housing bubble slowed down the growth in housing prices. The only people who'll benefit are those who didn't have much invested in the market 5 years ago and want a short period of discounted stock prices before AI really takes off. I was in my late 20's during the housing bubble so that crash definitely helped me buy a cheap house in my early 30's, so perhaps you're in a similar situation.

Comment Does 30 Under 30 actually have a lot of frauds? (Score 3, Insightful) 20

By now, the Forbes 30 Under 30 list has become more than a little notorious for the amount of entrants who go on to be charged with fraud

Have there really been that many frauds? Gemini found 7 former winners who have been charged with fraud (5 found guilty with 2 cases ongoing) out of 420 members. When you include other issues like sex offenses and workplace bullying it goes up to 15. So around 1.5 - 3.5% of their winners either went on to do bad things or were already doing them without getting caught.

Is the rest of the enterprise business world really any better than that?

Comment Re:It's not a correction (Score 2) 66

But "we fucked up but we employ enough people that it would be inconvenient if we went out of business" entitles a business to a bailout? If the bailout is not to preserve jobs, what is it for?

I don't think many if any of the bailouts of the past 20 years were done to save jobs at the companies being bailed out. They were to maintain our banking systems so other companies could continue running, or to protect industries that would have lost market share to foreign companies.

I'm not defending the behavior. I'm just pointing out that protecting jobs hasn't been a common justification for bailouts in the past.

Comment Re:and here i though they were one of the good one (Score 1) 122

That is nonsense. You can not "plagiate" without a copy right infringement.
After all you copy the work of the original author.

Just google: copyright alliance differences between copyright infringement and plagiarism. They give a good explanation for why why plagiarism and copyright infringement are completely different things (the main one being that one is a crime and the other isn't), but that they can overlap. That should hopefully clear up why very few plagiarism cases involve copyright infringement. Generally if something is actually copyright infringement, no one even bothers to call it plagiarism (since something much worse has happened).

And: in some countries it is a crime. E.g. Acquiring a PhD via plagiarism, is not a simple legal problem it is fraud, which is a hefty crime.

Some plagiarism is fraud, but that doesn't make plagiarism fraud. Just like sometimes firing a gun is murder, and sometimes it is target practice.

No US state considers plagiarism a crime (although if it rises to copyright infringement you can be charged with that). I did find that Montenegro is apparently the only country that actually considers plagiarism a crime. So I'll concede that 0.0075% of the world's population does live in a country where plagiarism is illegal.

Comment Re:and here i though they were one of the good one (Score 1) 122

The problem is when someone coaxes the model to output a significant portion of a work verbatim.

Yes they can read it in and process as much as they see fit, but if some prompt demonstrates an ability for it to reconstitute the original work, or something that from a human would be called an infringing knock off, what then?

If it really did easily spit out an entire novel just by being asked, that probably would be copyright infringement. If you have to painstakingly pull the content out of the LLM in small chunks and verify the output for accuracy, that isn't going to be copyright infringement. No potential buyer would ever take that route to read a book.

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