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Comment Re:Makes sense (Score 1) 292

But, nobody wants those nasty, polluting power plants (that have enough coal fuel to last another hundred years)... they'd rather burn the still-polluting NatGas that can be used for cooking and heating (and, you can get furnaces with 95+ efficiency). If you switch all houses to only electric everything, that power has to come from something. Nuclear power is better, fusion would be the best (if there was enough funding put towards it).

We want 100% renewables, so we will buy up every square inch of land to put up solar panels and wind turbines (great idea in the frozen North US where you have to deice the things daily in winter, and Tornado alley where you get to track down the missing panels a few counties over)... we don't want/need farms anymore, because we can get our ground beef from the farming land that used to be the Amazon and import garlic from China and import everything else from where ever it is that they grow it :-) and build the AI data centers (everybody needs "Clod" and all them all the time) on Ol' Farmer Joe's fourth generation farming land (and give him a couple hundred dollars to find a new place and 12 hours to get his stuff out of the house before the bulldozers start up). Hope you got to see those National Parks and got plenty of pictures, because if land is needed for 'renewable' energy production and AI crap, those might eventually be on the chopping block, too.

Not that I think this will change your mind, but a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation is interesting:

eia.gov (https://www.eia.gov/international/rankings/country/ESH?pid=44&aid=2&f=A&y=01%2F01%2F2024&u=0&v=none&pa=44) says that the US uses 95 quadrillion BTU of energy.

At ~3412 BTU/kWhr, we need 2.78 E13 kwHrs generated.

In good solar insolation areas in the US we get about 2000 hours of equivalent direct solar per year so we need 1.4 E10 kW of panels

With ~20% efficient panels, and solar insolation at 1 kW/sq meter we need 7 E10 sq meters of panels, or 7 E4 (70,000) square kilometers.

That is a lot, but the total area of the US is ~9,200,000 sq km, so we would need about 0.76% of our land area covered in solar panels, for complete energy autonomy, at least in terms of raw numbers.

Considerations:

1) there will be some transmission losses, so more panels required.

2) most use-cases will be more efficient with electricity (motors, heat pumps, etc) so that will strongly outweigh the transmission losses, so less land will be needed. Like I said, back-of-the-envelope.

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Link to Original Source

Comment Re:Good Old trn (Score 1) 130

I liked Jayson Adam's NewsGrazer on NeXT, and eventually learned to like trn. Feeds became out of control with spam, piracy, and worse, so I shut the nodes that I ran. I do miss Ludwig/Archimedes Plutonium.

Dude, I was the admin on the systems that he used! He is unique. I got to meet him on a regular basis, because people would complain about him, or he would be complaining about people.

And Ludwig covered Ludwig van Ludvig, and Ludwig Plutonium. He had a rain jacket covered with arcane symbols, element names, etc.

Comment Re:But but but (Score 1) 100

Ah, PolitiFact. Where "we couldn't find any good data" is proof that a claim is false. Note, I am not suggesting that the claim is true, either--I also don't have any actual data to bring to the table. While I agree the burden should rest on the person making the claim, the actual status here is "undetermined" rather than "false."

I would also note that your 13% number, picked from that "fact check" is sources from data that is specifically marked as "unreliable" which is a pretty strange thing to do when "checking facts":

But the Center had concerns about the reliability of its gang-related homicide numbers and stopped collecting them after 2012. It put an asterisk on top of its chart with the note urging "caution" in interpreting the results. In footnotes, the Center explained that localities had different ways of defining the term "gang-related."

With all of the above said, I felt motivated to try to answer this question. Like Politifact, I, too, found that this data is simply not reported in any kind of standardized way. You can, however, find some if you look--some jurisdictions DO do this work on their own. Contemporary with the data in the PolitiFact article is the Chicago PD's 2011 murder report. The conclusion drawn from this (data on pages 27-28) is that a full third of murders in the city of Chicago were "gang related" (either "gang altercation" or "narcotics.")

There are no specific "murder reports" available post 2011. However, data does exist in their annual reports. The most recent of which, for 2021 states on page 85:

In 2021, of the 800 criminal homicides, with the known motives, 49% were reported as death from “Gang Altercation.”

While this is certainly not 90%, it's almost four times your claimed number. Further, that 49% number is a floor as of those 800 homicides, a full 35% of them have motive listed as "unknown."

While Chicago is certainly not a proxy for the entire US, and "the murder rate would drop to almost zero" if you "removed with an x-acto knife specific neighborhoods" is at the very least hyperbole, the data suggest that "gang related" is certainly a major contributing factor, to a far greater extent than you claim in an attempt to refute "lies and utter nonsense."

Man, I hate getting drawn into religious wars, but I'm a bit of a number nerd, so:

That Chicago PD report referenced said 800 murders

515 murders with known motives.

of the 515 murders with known motives, 253 or 49.1% were gang-related

So, the 49.1% isn't the floor, 253 is the floor, so by percentage 253/800*100 or 31.6% is the floor. It is a mistake to make any assumption about the makeup of murders where no motive is assigned, in the absence of other data.

So, it is not 13%, but it is nowhere near 90% either. Using a geometric mean (more applicable to ratios than an arithmetic average) of the two guesses we get 34.2%, so if you want to assign "wrong-ness" values to the guesses, 90% skews slightly more wrong (less right?) than 13%.

Comment Re:what about use of road tax (Score 1) 220

Tesla Model S: 4,323–4,960 lbs 2 door sedan (3 if you count the lift back

Nissan Maxima: 4,685 lbs

Wait; are you actually claiming that a Model S (or any model Tesla for that matter) is a 2-door sedan? Have you even bothered to look at the specifications? In case you haven't, I assure you that it's a 4-door sedan.

Comment Re:The decisions (Score 1) 362

"Even with storage, wind is cheaper than nuclear," No it isn't. For baseload you need about 60 hours of storage, using the optimal mix of solar and wind. The optimal system comes in at about $32 billion for a 1 GW baseload system, of which 43% is batteries. Nuclear is about $10 billion if you do it the silly way, $6B if you are more sensible. Gas, for reference is about $1 billion. In my opinion the correct solution is to have an hour or two of batteries, massive overbuild of wind and solar, and then use a gas peaker 20% of the time. Compared with coal this reduces the CO2 emissions to 10% of what they were. That system would cost about the same as nuclear.

Hmm. Even using the equivalent costs for BEV batteries (at $150/kWhr, which is higher than current prices), and 60 GWhr of storage, we get $9 billion, which is considerably less than your estimate of ~$14 billion ($32 billion * 0.43). Of course, given the scale of this storage, the fact that we don't need the special constraints of auto use, and ongoing battery research, that number can only decrease, and probably significantly.

So, it seems like you are exaggerating.

Comment Re:Welp we are all pretty fucked now (Score 1) 228

Comment Re: I prefer solar installations over dead soldier (Score 1) 127

3 year ROI? Really? I currently spend approximately $150 a month on Electricity (highest, $200, lowest $100, depending on season) and highest average rate of approximately 6.7 cents/KwH (~3000 KwH). Given solar power costs are typically 8 cents/KwH or higher, not quite sure how I could ever reach a reasonable ROI, and that is before even thinking of maintenance issues --which just seems likely to cost more then nothing, and also doesn't take into account related costs like roof maintenance/replacement (my current roof will probably need to be replaced in the next 5-10 years -- replace it now, or remove the solar and replace it in 5-10 years and replace solar then? At the end of the day, people don't normally undertake expenses which provide no advantage and increase costs...

Anecdotes are the best kind of data... https://www.eia.gov/electricit... TL;DR no state has an average cost/kWhr of 6.7 cents. The closest is Alabama at 7.51 cents, and the average over the country is 10.59 cents. Even if you are correct in your costs, you by no means represent anything like normal. If you have an unusual agreement with the power company, you should note that in your post.

Comment Re:for the * (Score 1) 241

250 is what I would call roughly average, so what a approximately 10% difference? That's not that much. https://www.statista.com/stati...

Actually, that site indicates that it's around 234/100000, which is a somewhat larger difference. (total deaths in us (771576) / us population (329500000) * 100000). Also, Florida is 9th worst in the country, which puts it in the worst 20th percentile. Not average in my view.

Comment Re:Makes sense... (Score 2) 118

Fastest car? You seen the Ring times on that thing?

https://www.businessinsider.co...

Meanwhile:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

It's only ~8s faster than an old Camaro Z/28. Please.

Well, as someone as already said, best acceleration to 60. Also, I see your 'ring time stat, and raise you: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... No way any production car has gone faster than that one! :-)

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