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Comment Re:A weird generation... (Score 1) 230

That's not a generational problem, that's fucked up parenting.

This kid sees no benefit in getting his drivers license.

Maybe he lives somewhere where it's not required? I don't know much about SF, but from what I've heard it's one of the few better connected American cities. I know many adults without drivers licenses where I live, but I concur for many Americans a drivers license is critical to survival. Is this the case in SF?

That was the high point of high school...FREEDOM.

What part of highschool was freedom? The bit where the bell rang and you had 5 minutes to get your arse to your assigned desk for your assigned learning activity which you were to do without speaking unless spoken to or risk more "freedom" detention after everyone leaves?

I'm thankful for my education, but highschool is very much the antithesis of freedom. Real freedom came at university where people didn't give a crap if you went to class or not, your education at that point was voluntary and when your lecturer bored you to tears you could just get up, leave, and go have a beer in the engineering building pub.

Comment Re:Mental Health Crisis??? (Score 1) 230

So why is it a mental health crisis now?

Because someone actually identified the problem rather than sweeping it under the rug or dismissing it as quirky behaviour.

There's often this idea that something is a problem "now" and thus didn't exist in the past. It's like saying why was tuberculosis a problem "now"? It never existed 10 years before it's discovery, ignoring the fact that people were dying of consumption.

The problem exists "now" because someone studied it and identified it "now", not because you didn't also have the same problem 20 years ago.

Comment Re:The fallout of compulsory education (Score 1) 230

Almost none of them do, even the high-performing ones.

Kids are horrendous at judging the long term actions of their childhood. Given the opportunity to not be at school many capable people wouldn't go. That's why we make it mandatory. A kid in my wife's math class has failed math repeatedly, he says he doesn't care he has a football contract and doesn't need to know anything about basic math because he'll be rich.

He will certainly end up one of those statistics where they age out of their career in their 30s like most sports people do, "retire" filthy rich, and then be completely broke and looking for work again in their 40s wishing that maybe they should have paid attention when the concept of compounding interest was taught to them at school.

Kids aren't given autonomy because they are too dumb to make good decisions. Education needs to remain mandatory, we just need to find a different way to make it joyful (and sitting down while being pontificated to from a whiteboard probably isn't it).

Comment Re:the solution to "the mental health crisis" (Score 1) 230

If I am looking at a new college grad and give any weight to GPA, I won't care if that GPA excludes the sorts of classes they would have first semester.

In my experience GPA means nothing beyond someone passing, so a pass/fail criteria should be perfectly fine. I've seen people with excellent GPAs be rubbish in the real world, and people with poor GPAs be excellent and dedicated problem solvers.

There's a disconnect between GPA (which is very often tied to an ability to remember arbitrary crap) and real world skills. At least in engineering. And the direct example is that people with poor GPAs in engineer are often those who suck at math, which isn't a problem because engineers hand calculate virtually nothing anymore. On the flip side if I was hiring for a company developing engineering software... well math skills may be important, but then I'd probably tease this out of applicants rather than just relying on their GPA number.

Comment Re:the solution to "the mental health crisis" (Score 1) 230

Dropping the actual grades for pass/fail would have been the WORST thing to do.

Pass/No Credit is only provided for the overall course (and of course it is because precisely no one gives a fuck what grade you got in your first year courses). Students still get the actual results of their work, assignments, exams, practical's, etc and know how badly they did at every point.

Back in the real world we live by pass/fail. No one in industry gives you a ranking on your professional certification. You're not a 8/10 engineer, you're either a PE or not. You're not a 6/10 accountant, you're either chartered or not. Why should university be different?

Comment Re:the solution to "the mental health crisis" (Score 1) 230

It crazy, some people will want to protect kids from literally everthing and then expect them to wake up one morning magically equipped to deal with the world.

Who said that this won't allow them to be equipped to deal with the world? The difference between a pass and an ace should have no impact on a person's ability to deal with the world. At no point here is the university passing people who would have otherwise failed.

Comment Re:the solution to "the mental health crisis" (Score 1) 230

You are here to educate these kids. This is your role.

And how does arbitrarily ranking them aid this role? Is education improved by dividing and ranking someone among their peers? We don't do that in the professional world, even in education. People get ranked as competent or not competent for their jobs and certifications. Why should university be any different?

The Dutch have an interesting answer here, zesjescultuur (it literally translates to: sixes culture). It's the idea that if you pass (6/10) you pass anything beyond that is unneeded stress in a world where no one is going to give a flying fuck if you got a 6 or a 8 in your intro to engineering course. This concept is repeated in many cultures where people rank highly in mental health and happiness.

Comment Re:just stop (Score 1) 48

Or you could stop foisting software on users and let the users decide what they want/need.

Well... this software is already there. You've lost that battle already. This change is a good thing. I think Microsoft's marketing team needs to be taken to a farm upstate for their stupid software naming. TIL Copilot and Microsoft 365 Copilot are not the same thing. Probably like Outlook, Outlook Lite, Outlook (New), M365 Outlook are all different programs as well.

Consolidating this rubbish is objectively good.

Comment Re:I initially dismissed the idea of agents (Score 1) 48

I think the only thing you missed was the idea of the simple UI and the complexity of speech. The issue wasn't software UI, it's that our use cases got incredibly complex. example:

If you were to replace a system that listed out emails, highlighting the unread ones with a text to speech AI system it would be incredibly slow. We are good at quickly glancing at titles and using visual queues to determine a state.

On the other hand that's not the use case for an AI agent. The use case for an AI agent would be "Go through my unread emails showing the top 5 most urgent ones sorted by any due dates in the message." Now that we're in the complex world of displaying a subset of messages based on some user provided context related to email content quickly saying or typing this instruction is orders of magnitude faster and easier than developers considering every possible user use case and creating a UI for it.

It doesn't matter how easy to use an email client is if I need to manually look through the content of what I receive. And a client that covers every use case will cease being simple (that's the open source trap, and why the old open source software approach of presenting every option to the user at all times was so overwhelming and complicated to non-powerusers).

Agents seemed backwards to me too until things got to a point where they were too complex to easily automate.

On the flip side I heard a colleague ask copilot (via voice command, in an open plan office, but that's a different debacle) what the temperature was outside, and I responded to them 34deg before Copilot had even finished processing the speech input. This is something literally written on their fucking taskbar, so I think a not insignificant amount of agent use is users being fucking stupid.

Comment Re:lol, what? (Score 1) 88

Maybe join the conversation some time instead of placing a completely irrelevant ad hominem attack by listing a handful of incidents about an agency that publishes literally hundreds of articles a week.

I understand why you post AC. Imagine all the stupid shit we would find going back through your posting history to use to discredit anything you say.

Comment Re:Heavy Lifting (Score 2) 54

Investors are chasing a company that achieves some kind of AI singularity. Let's set aside the fact that there's no reason to believe there is anything but diminishing marginal returns by making marginal refinements to current frontier models. Let's imagine someone hits the jackpot and gets, not even AGI, but a system that's as far ahead of today's frontier model are ahead of 2020's GPT 2.0 in performance.

Globally AI revenues are 150 billion, against a cumulative burn rate of 450 billion. A model that is a generation ahead of others would almost certainly capture the lion's share of that revenue.

If AGI magically appears as a Sam Altman has promised investors it will, a hundred million is way too low. Add, maybe, another zero to the revenues.

Conservatively, a safer assumption is that frontier models will get marginally better based on refinements in training and reinforcement and the other bits and bobs that go into these systems. The nobody is winning the lion's share of anything, at least overnight. But you have to define "safe". By "safe" I mean unlikely to lose money. But some investors are clearly defining "safe" as "having the greatest chance of owning a piece of the biggest thing ever."

I'm not following this super-closely, but if Anthropic is pursuing adding multi-step model based reasoning to their system, that could be the basis of a generational leap in capability. But if that is an approach that looks like it has a chance of working, then their competitors are no doubt pursuing the same thing. In that case you'd expect the revenue pie to grow as the scope of model utilty increases, but that growth to be split among several competitors. This could credibly result in a revenue stream for some of them that is as big as the entire industry's revenue stream today. But there's going to be hell to pay on the data center impacts end of things.

Comment Re: Social engineering. (Score 1) 88

f you don't believe in national borders, then you don't believe in Nations, which raises several questions including how do you feel large groups of people should govern themselves, and how does one interact with said government?

I didn't say there shouldn't be a government, I said there shouldn't be borders. Learn the difference retard.

Again why do you think those Western Countries are desirable? It's b/c of a history that includes the formation of nation-states with, wait for it ... borders!

Yes because that's why migrants come: "I want to go to a place with government" /s. You got so close you just missed a few words. In reality they want to go to a place with "a different government" which again the basis of the problem is the concept that piece of land A is governed differently from piece of land B.

Arbitrary nation-states created solely by the use force are the fundamental problem here, even by your own logic.

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