> Your opinions aren't facts
Your's aren't either. But mine are at least rooted in observations and logic. (Insert YouTube picture here with "serviscope_minor DESTROYED by facts and logic!" here. ;-)) Seriously though, knock it off with the "opinions" BS, you're not posting any fewer "opinions" than I am, and generally what I've said is either obvious or something I've explained the logic behind. I'm actually baffled that you felt UBI and labor pool linkage was only an opinion, for example.
> The government already makes benefits and pensions broadly livable (well just about, opinions vary as to what livable is).
Unemployment here in Florida is about $250 a week per person. The average rent is over $1,500/mo for a two bedroom apartment. So a father losing his job with a stay at home mom and kids is suddenly $500/month in the hole if the family was already poor and thrifty and had made a two bed apartment work before food, energy, vehicle usage, etc. You get some help with healthcare and food stamps can make some food ingredients free.
Both unemployment and social security (government provided pensions) have been subject to repeated cuts over the decades, and social security is only viable to live on because most elderly people own their own homes or can be supported by their families. Social security depends on the person, but a couple I know personally received $2,000 a month via SS per person. When one died, the household income cut in half.
The government does not generally want to be in either pensions or the unemployment business. When the great recession started, Florida cut unemployment benefits, putting an arbitrary $3,000 cap on it (that is, once you've had 12 weeks of $250/week, you don't get any more.) That cap has never been lifted.
So benefits are already low. Too low. It "succeeds" only because people who work try to save money for events like this, and people who are retired usually own their own homes.
> No you're sating opinions that you think are obvious facts but aren't actually facts.
Please discuss this in good faith. Simply quoting sentences out of context isn't good faith. Nor is wasting time just saying "Nuh-uh" which is what the above quoted sentence actually boils down to. You're being an asshole. Stop it.
> Same way it works with benefits, really. We as a society don't generally like people starving in the streets so we don't have a complete starvation level welfare state.
Again, good faith please. You claimed it was only an opinion (and somehow thus wrong) to state "Increasing (UBI) reduces the number of people in the labor pool". We're discussing the effects of the government facing pressure to reduce UBI when employers need more workers. You claimed, bizarrely, that "You're stating an opinion as a fact."
So the above comment pretends that we were discussing something else. Again, if you reduce UBI, then unless you seriously believe that people will say "Welp, time to go bankrupt and die", you have to accept it will increase the labor pool. People will become desperate to accept jobs they otherwise wouldn't. That's basic economics. Is economics an exact science? Of course not, but calling it "an opinion" is an absurdity.
> You explained the reasons and having read the reasons, I disagree. They apply equally to the existing benefits and yet that broadly has not happened.
And yet it's both untrue that they apply "equally" AND those benefits that supposedly will never get cut keep getting cut.
It doesn't apply equally:
- Most people see benefits as something they may have to rely upon in an emergency (Krugman's "A government is an insurance company backed by an army" quote springs to mind), so as long as the number of people claiming them is minimal, they're comfortable with them being livable.
- UBI will be a source of income that won't even make sense to many recipients, and people receiving when earning many times the UBI rate and making future decisions based upon that level of income (ie when getting mortgages etc) won't see it as a fall back they can rely upon when jobs become scarce.
- UBI's level is directly related to the size of the labor pool, no matter how much you want to call that "my opinion" or pretend we're talking about something else. Employers can and will put pressure on the government to keep it as low as possible. This is not as true (it's partially true, but not to the same extent) of pensions/social security. This is also mostly not as true of unemployment as long as unemployment is policed and those on unemployment are forced to prove they're looking for work. Governments can at least protect the unemployed from poverty while encouraging them to work.
The above points mean there isn't nearly as much pressure on governments to keep UBI rate high as there are existing benefits. The above points mean there is more pressure to keep the UBI rate low, than there are existing benefits.
- Benefits are constantly being cut. It is not possible to live on unemployment benefits in much of the US. They remain the same numeric number as they were in 2008, but are capped, and inflation has shot up. Social security is constantly under review and COLA updates occur sporadically, not automatically.
At the end of the day, you ignore the central point that I and OP originally made: UBI is, very clearly, a politically unsustainable system by design. It's designed to be killed by increasingly conservative governments, rendered useless, and by replacing existing benefits, something that will ultimately result in the complete destruction of the safety net.
You want it to not be that, I get it. Everyone loves the idea that they never have to worry about unemployment again. When I was in my twenties (and unemployed! and a Wired-reading libertarian doofus) I "invented" (that is, thought of it without anyone telling me everyone else had already thought of it) UBI as an obvious fairer way to handle income and inequality and so on. But 30 years of living in a world where recessions are greeted with layoffs, even by governments, and where the only US President to ever prioritize employment over inflation had his successor defeated by a notorious conman because "he'd be better on the economy, have you seen the price of eggs?!", makes me know that it's just not going to work. To make it work, you'd probably have to pass a constitutional amendment, have that amendment define and tie it to the cost of living, create an wholly independent unelected agency to manage it, made of people of Monk-like devotion to that system.
And... someone who ends up earning many times UBI, starts a family, buys a home using a mortgage to house it, and then loses their job, will still end up going bankrupt and on the street. So in the end, what's the point?
But that's not how it'll happen. There will be no constitutional amendment. There will be no permanent minimum. There will be no priesthood maintaining the system. It'll just replace the existing benefits, without the pressure to make sure the benefits are high enough to... not go bankrupt when qualifying for them.