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Comment Re:Two reasons (Score 1) 162

I prefer FiveThirtyEight to Real Clear Politics. As they point out frequently, national polls mean little or nothing in the primary race because primary elections don't work the way polls do. The rules are also malleable right up to the moment before the actual selection takes place at the convention.

FiveThirtyEight places a great deal of weight on what it calls the Endorsement Primary. This is a points system where each endorsement of a candidate by a member of the House of Representatives is worth one point, each Senator's endorsement is worth five points, and each governor's is worth 10 points. By this scale, there are theoretically up to 1435 points to award, though members of one party are unlikely to endorse someone from another party. In any case, Clinton leads the Endorsement Primary for Democrats by 447 to Sanders's mere 2 points (and O'Malley has one point). Republicans are a much more mixed bag with Bush at 41, Rubio at 29, Christie at 25, and Huckabee at 24. Everyone else is at 15 or fewer points (Trump and Carson have zero), and only 168 points worth of endorsements have even been made among candidates still in the race, so there's still a lot of wait-and-see going on.

I expect the party will push for some of the others to drop out to make the Iowa slate a little cleaner, but Iowa and New Hampshire are worthless as predictors of the nation, doing little better than chance at predicting the actual nominee. They act as filters: if you can't make a halfway decent showing there, you're probably not going to do it elsewhere. But ultimately, the party has a great deal of control by pushing superdelegates to vote in a certain way, and even a seemingly close match-up going into the convention could turn out to be a nearly runaway victory for whomever the Establishment prefers.

Comment Not the way I read it (Score 0) 162

It looked to me like Rightscorp wants the ISPs to forward their $20 a song settlement demands, and that once the ISP does that they're off the hook again. The ISPs didn't want to hand over their customers for a variety of reasons. But from what I can tell these two (very large) businesses will work something out without the messiness of title II

Comment Re:Holy crap ... (Score 1) 162

Clinton is almost a lock. Something hugely catastrophic would need to happen for her to fail to get the nomination.

Jeb Bush is another story. He's faltering, but he may also be waiting for others to tear down Trump and Carson before trying to mount a serious comeback. Still, Rubio seems to be slowly becoming the Establishment favorite, and that counts for a lot.

Comment Re:I think this is fair. (Score 0, Offtopic) 162

Al-Qaeda affiliates and ISIS actually do fight each other. ISIS and al-Nusra Front have been at opposition for a while. Remember that ISIS came out of what was al-Qaeda in Iraq, and announced a merger with al-Nusra without discussing it with anyone else. Al-Nusra told them to get bent, AQI declared they were going ahead with it, Zawahiri told everyone to chill out, and AQI announced it was breaking from al-Qaeda. Al-Nusra has remained allied with al-Qaeda, and sometimes coordinates with the Free Syrian Army and other rebel groups, especially when fighting ISIS.

This is one of the weirdest things about ISIS: even al-Qaeda is against them, says they go too far, and thinks they're more extreme than the Quran allows. They have basically the entire world--including most terrorists--against them.

Comment Re:The IRS keeps its hooks in US citizens who leav (Score 3, Informative) 322

Your comprehension skill are lacking.

1. The $2M sum is only a test for eligibility.

2. Tax is payable on unrealized gains, not total assets:

IRC 877A imposes a mark-to-market regime, which generally means that all property of a covered expatriate is deemed sold for its fair market value on the day before the expatriation date. Any gain arising from the deemed sale is taken into account for the tax year of the deemed sale notwithstanding any other provisions of the Code.

There is a $680k deduction, which is unrelated to any primary residence:

The amount that would otherwise be includible in gross income by reason of the deemed sale rule is reduced (but not to below zero) by $600,000, which amount is to be adjusted for inflation for calendar years after 2008 (the âoeexclusion amountâ). For calendar year 2014, the exclusion amount is $680,000

Comment You underestimate (Score 1) 322

how easy it is to get out of taxes when you own the gov't. Right now they're putting a little effort in. As they get more and more power (because your giving it to them) they'll cut back and back.

Taxes are a powerful tool to drive certain types of behavior. They're often the only tool we have and the only real power the masses can exact on our corporate overlords. You don't leave a tool that powerful lying dormant. Well, you can, but you won't last long if you do...

To do two things at once is to do neither. -- Publilius Syrus