I think it can. I've been working on getting an LLM (Claude Sonnet 3.7) to add missing type annotations to python code. When I naively ask it "please add types" then like you said it has about a 60% success rate and 40% hallucination rate as measured by "would an expert human have come up with the same type annotations and did they pass the typechecker".

But when I have a much more careful use of the LLM, micromanaging what sub-tasks it does, then it has a 70% success rate, and 30% rate of declining because it didn't have confidence to come up with an answer. Effectively there were no more hallucinations. (I got these numbers by spot-checking 200 cases).

So I think hallucination can be solved for some tasks, by the right kind of task-specific micromanagement and feedback loops.

That's because videos are terribly efficient. You used to be able to skim an article in 30 seconds and get all of the important information. Now it's a 45 minute video explaining that the bash command you need is du -sh /path/to/folder

to get the folder size.

Do I need to listen to two podcasters ramble for an hour? No I do not. Not only do I want to play it back at 2x speed. I also want an AI to cut out the 90% of fluff.

Might I suggest "Blind Lake" by Robert Charles Wilson. I read it when it first came out two decades ago, but it reads strangely similar to what we're seeing now, and the sinister edge is there, too.

OpenAI has $12bn annual revenue, about 3% that of Apple, about $3million per employees per year (compared to $2 million per employee per year at Apple).

I think OpenAI has a huge amount of growth potential even just from predictable growth over the next several years, even if steep changes towards AGI don't come.

Me too. After fifteen years of use, the outermost trace (left line of the keyboard) broke, rendering the Unicomp M junk. I had to switch to the chiclet keyboards they issue at work. Three days later I came down with tendonitis. So now I have a base Cherry Brown KC MX.

It's not about scale. Fiber is inexpensive to make. But it's just more temperamental than copper. You need to keep the ports completely dust free. It's not ideal for a normal home and doesn't carry electricity so you can't power a device at the other end of the plug with POE.

There are $700 gaming monitors with those specs already. There will probably be $300 gaming monitors with those specs in a year or two.

Like I said, I figured 8k would be enough resolution for soccer. As for 16k, I imagine that something with bandwidth for 16k would translate that bandwidth into twice the frequency for 8k, which would be ideal for soccer.

Like a bike messenger? Why does a delivery rider need home internet?!

Do you watch soccer? 4k resolution means a player's head is about 14 pixels high, not enough to make out much beyond a blob of color; their jersey is 60 pixels high, enough to make out the number but not much more. Doubling the vertical resolution (i.e. going to 8k) would likely be enough to let you make out similar detail to what you'd see in real life. (Frame rate is another issue: HDMI 2.0 allows 4k at 60hz which is too slow when panning in a soccer game; HDMI 2.1 allows 4k at 120hz which is probably enough). I think that 16k is probably the right bandwidth to get soccer looking good.

Do you do VR? 4k per eye isn't good enough for VR yet. It's possible that 16k will be, but we might still need more.

Do you watch the gorgeous film classics like Lawrence of Arabia? One of the (many) things that make it look great is that it was shot on 65mm, equivalent to about 12k resolution.

The world is full of troubleshooting trees. Even going to the doctor is often a memorized branching diagnostic steps.

LLMs are excellent at that. I've often wished I could just get the tech support app that the tech support call center people use to fix my problems. Like, why do I need to call and wait half an hour for someone to read a script?

Instant support, even if it's just following the tech support tree would be a lot of help I think and resolve a lot of stupid problems. "have you turned it off and on again?"

This is the problem a lot of people apply to every piece of technology that comes along.

"It can't safely fly a plane full of 300 people! It's useless!"

Ok, yeah, sure... I guess. But most things in the world don't have that degree of confidence needed. I used an LLM this morning to remind me of a plot thread in a TV show I haven't watched in 15 years. It got it right, as I remember it as well and it's infinitely easier than scrolling through 300-episode summaries.

That's a nice arrangement that OpenAI wants. "Invest in us when we're small and fund our development... and then keep all the money once we hit it big." You mean to tell me that Microsoft wants a return on their very large and very high risk investment?!