It's that kind of thinking which led to Steve Jobs being drummed out of Apple by the Board of Directors in the first place, who thought Apple had outgrown it's startup leadership. It's not an "Apple gizmo fad", but a company which (under visionary leadership) has transformed the world multiple times, with:
* the first microcomputer (Apple ][)
* first GUI user interface (Macintosh)
* first useful mp3 player (iPod)
* first useful desktop certified UNIX (OSX)
* first useful smartphone (iPhone)
* first useful tablet computer (iPad)
My point is that, as a company, they have a decades long track record of providing groundbreaking, useful technologies. They have had flops. They may not be the first to market in a niche, but when their products ship they come to define the niche.
The biggest threat to Apple IMHO is that it:
* concentrate too much on consumer and ignore enterprise level solutions
- why does not OSX server have built-in iOS policy enforcement features? (instead of relying on 3rd parties) etc etc etc.
- why has the MacPro line not been updated still long after xServe discontinued?
* corporate management brain rot redefines Apple as a "cash cow" instead of continuing the tradition of useful and world transforming innovation established by Jobs & company.
They can continue to push current technologies down the road, with faster/larger capacity devices, but this is incremental improvement. How far can they push the "digital hub" paradigm? What's the next innovative paradigm? What can they do new?
* iTV (if they can make it not suck like AppleTV)
* enterprise deployment and management solutions, better business quality scheduling and groupware built-in
For the last decade I have looked at the market capitalization of stocks like RIM, Motorola, Nokia, Dell, HPQ, MSFT as fodder for Apple growth. This has been immensely profitable to me. The numbers at Apple look great at this market cap, it should be sustainable as phone and computers have fairly limited lifespans and computer market share had lots of room for growth. But how far up is up? Management at Apple must be genuinely visionary, and not what generally passes for this across the industry.