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Comment Re:amazing (Score 1) 279

Here's how you arrive at that number: 100 billion neurons (correct), each firing at 200 Hz (big overestimate, all the neurons are never firing at their max speed. A more typical number would be a few Hz), each sending signals to 1000 other neurons (underestimate, I think. The average number of synapses per neuron is about 7000). You now multiply those numbers together and say that that's the total number of calculations. That's how you get 20 million billion.

Let's do the same for a CPU. A modern Intel i7 has 1.4 billion transistors, each cycling at about 4 Ghz. Each transistor is connected to three others. So we get a total of 20 billion billion "calculations" per second.

Wow, that's a lot! But it's also nonsense. A single transistor sending a signal to another transistor isn't a useful calculation. And a single neuron firing at another neuron isn't a useful calculation either. Each neuron fires based on the total firing rate it receives, and a series of pulses is needed to stimulate it to fire itself. Secondly, lots of neurons firing together is needed to achieve even very basic things. The "20 million billion" number for the brain is probably overestimated by at least as much as the "20 billion billion" number for the CPU.

So why is the brain's output so much more impressive than a CPU's output? Probably for the same reason that a 1 MHz computer running quicksort performs better than a 1 GHz computer running bogosort. Algorithms matter.

Comment Re:amazing (Score 1) 279

I don't think it's obvious that one couldn't do real-time 3D vision and context-sensitive pattern recognition with a low-power modern cpu and beat the brain. It's so hard to do an apples-to-apples comparison here, as there's so much we still don't understand about how the brain does things. When does the object recognition actually take place? How often is this information updated, and for which objects? What spatial and temporal resolution is used for the processing of various parts of the field of vision (and probably some heavier tasks operate on a much lower resolution representation).

The brain clearly uses a very clever algorithm, and a similarly clever algorithm running on today's computer hardware is what one would have to compare with. Sadly, we don't have such an algorithm. But just to illustrate that this really is to a large degree an algorithm issue (though this example goes a bit off-topic when it comes to the energy use): I think you will agree that even a small modern CPU has more processing power than a dragonfly. But we still don't have drones that can compete with a dragonfly in moving through a complex 3d environment at high speed.

Comment Re:2x power (Score 4, Informative) 89

To make a planet-eating black hole from an accelerator experiment you need to assume that Hawking ratiation doesn't exist (or is extremely feeble), or those black holes would evaporate instantly before they can accrete any matter. So you would end up with planet-mass black holes orbiting stars.

Even if you turned off Hawking radiation, it would still be hard for a black hole from a particle accelerator to actually eat the planet. Let's say you have an accelerator much more powerful than the LHC, with a center-of-mass energy of 1 PeV. If all that were used to produce a black hole, it would have a mass of 1.8e-21 kg. An electron or proton a single hydrogen radius away from it (which we can use as a typical intermolecular distance in the Earth for simplicity) would feel an acceleration of 1e-11 m/s^2, which is absolutely tiny compared to the electrical forces that govern motion on those scales. A small black hole like that behaves much like a neutrino - it hardly interacts with anything. And it needs to do that to grow. I think we could have lots of these inside the Earth and not even notice (dun-dun-DUUN!).

Even if you included Hawking radiation but somehow only turned it on after the black hole had consumed the planet, you still wouldn't get rid of the planet-mass black hole, as a hole of that size evaporates extremely slowly, and would have a life time of more than 5e50 years.

Planet-mass black holes could be detected via gravitational microlensing. Planets are regularly detected this way. But it may be hard to distinguish those black holes from planets. As far as I know we can't exclude a population of these in orbit around a fraction of the stars in the milky way. The accretion events, when the planets are eaten, would probably be quite bright, and might be visible as mini-supernovas.

Comment Derivative works are another form of payment (Score 3, Informative) 208

There's another basic form of payment one can get as a free software developer that isn't mentioned here (in the summary at least), and that's payment in the form of more free software. You spend some time writing some sofware, make it available under the GPL and encourage others to use it, modify it and share it. If in the end this leads to the production of at least one other free software project of similar size that you find useful, then you've made back the lost time you spend writing your program in the first place. As a bonus, the body of free software has grown by at least two in the process.

As an example, let's say I write a raytracing library, and it takes me 500 work hours to do so. Then somebody uses it to write something like Blender. If Blender saves me 500 work hours over the years, then that by itself makes it worth it. And as a very nice bonus, libraytrace+Blender together will save lots of time for many other people too, since they won't need to implement these things themselves.

Submission + - SpaceX Falcon 9 Launches Rocket Recovery Attempt Scrapped

An anonymous reader writes: After scrubbing a launch Sunday because a radar glitch, and cancelling one Tuesday due to high winds, SpaceX has succesfully launched the Falcon 9 rocket holding the Deep Space Climate Observatory satellite. The DSCOVR will orbit between Earth and the sun, observing and providing advanced warning of particles and magnetic fields emitted by the sun. The planned attempt to recover the first stage of the Falcon 9 rocket via autonomous drone ship was scrapped due to huge waves in the Atlantic.

Submission + - The Mathematical Case for Buying a Powerball Ticket 4

HughPickens.com writes: Neil Irwin writes at the NYT that financially literate people like to complain that buying lottery tickets is among the silliest decisions a person could make but there are a couple of dimensions that these tut-tutted warnings miss, perhaps fueled by a class divide between those who commonly buy lottery tickets and those who choose to throw away money on other things like expensive wine or mansions. According to Irwin, as long as you think about the purchase of lottery tickets the right way — purely a consumption good, not an investment — it can be a completely rational decision. "Fantasizing about what you would do if you suddenly encountered great wealth is fun, and it is more fun if there some chance, however minuscule, that it could happen," says Irwin. "The $2 price for a ticket is a relatively small one to pay for the enjoyment of thinking through how you might organize your life differently if you had all those millions."

Right now the Multi-State Lottery Association estimates the chances of winning the grand prize at about 1 in 175 million, and the cash value of the prize at $337.8 million. The simplest math points to that $2 ticket having an expected value of about $1.93 so while you are still throwing away money when buying a lottery ticket, you are throwing away less in strictly economic terms when you buy into an unusually large Powerball jackpot. "I am the type of financial decision-maker who tracks bond and currency markets and builds elaborate spreadsheets to simulate outcomes of various retirement savings strategies," says Irwin. "I can easily afford to spend a few dollars on a Powerball ticket. Time to head to the convenience store and do just that."

Submission + - Russia seeking to ban Tor, VPNs and other anonymising tools (thestack.com) 1

An anonymous reader writes: Three separate Russian authorities have spoken out in favour of banning online anonymising tools since February 5th, with particular emphasis on Tor, which — despite its popularity with whistle-blowers such as Edward Snowden and with online activists — Russia's Safe Internet League describes as an 'Anonymous network used primarily to commit crimes'. The three authorities involved are the Committee on Information Policy, Information Technologies and Communications, powerful Russian media watchdog Roskomnadzor and the Safe Internet League, comprising the country's top three network providers, including state telecoms provider Rostelecom. Roskomnadzor's press secretary Vadim Roskomnadzora Ampelonsky describes the obstacles to identifying and blocking Tor and VPN traffic as 'difficult, but solvable'.

Submission + - The blind spots in the nuclear test monitoring system (thebulletin.org)

Lasrick writes: The International Monitoring System managed by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization relies on detecting one or more of four distinct signatures from a nuclear explosion. Seismic detectors continuously listen for the shock waves passing through the earth from underground nuclear tests. Hydro-acoustic monitors listen for sound waves in the oceans from underwater tests. Infrasound detectors scan for pressure waves in the atmosphere. The fourth kind of signal involves radioactive gases generated by a nuclear explosion and released into the atmosphere. Ulrich Kuhn and Michael Schoeppner describe the system in detail, and point out that there are blind spots, particularly in the area of noble gas detection: 'Our research has found that the noble gas detection part of the International Monitoring System is unlikely to work as it should because of the limited distribution of noble gas stations, neglect of important meteorological patterns in some areas, and the radionuclide background from emissions from the commercial production of medical isotopes.' Kuhn and Schoeppner go on to describe possible fixes, and call on the 183 states that have signed the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and the CTBTO to provide the resources to build extra monitoring stations where they are required and to curb activities that might limit the global capability to monitor possible nuclear tests.

Comment Re:Solution to Global Warming (Score 3, Interesting) 75

The Earth-Sun L1 point is 1.5 Gm from the Earth, pretty much exactly 1% of the distance from the earth to the sun. So to fully cover the sun (as seen from one spot on Earth), the blind would have to be 1% of the Radius of the sun. That's basically the radius of the Earth, or 4 times the radius of the Moon. To cover the sun as seen from anywhere on Earth, you would need a slightly bigger radius due to perspective.

But one doesn't need to cover the whole sun (unless one wants to play the grandparent's nefarious games with Asia). A 1% reduction in insolation would already help a lot. So that gives us about 1% of the area of the earth, or 1.5e12 m^2. With graphene's density, that works out to be 1,120,000 kg for a single layer. For comparison, the international space station's mass is 450,000 kg, so that mass is within the realm of the possible to launch, even to the much greater distance of L1.

But a single layer of graphene is transparent, which isn't a good quality to have for blocking the sun. So much more than 1 layer would be needed. That would very quickly bring the mass into unrealistically high levels, corresponding to hundreds or thousands of space stations. And that still ignores the mass of the supports needed to keep the graphene extended and in the right shape, which would probably weigh more than the graphene itself.

Another problem inherent to such a large surface area is that the solar wind will exert a pretty large force on it. The solar wind has a pressure of about 4nPa, which multiplied with the huge surface area gives a force of 6 kN towards the Earth. So a rockets would have to be mounted on it to keep it in orbit. Or actually, one can compensate for this force by moving solar sail blind closer to the sun, where it would be able to orbit with the same angular velocity as the Earth without any correcing rockets on average. However, the solar wind isn't constant, so it would still need corrective rockets. And it would be in the way for all the current sun-observing satellites at L1. There would also be a tendency for the blind to rotate to show its thin direction to the solar wind, which would need to be counteracted.

This could probably be done, but I it would probably be by far the largest project ever attempted, and much more expensive than other, simpler ways of dealing with global warming, such as polluting less. It's a fun idea, though.

Comment Re:Does anyone care what RMS thinks any more? (Score 1) 253

Copyright isn't the only way to get paid for writing software. A kickstarter approach lets you collect the money upfront rather than trying to track down people and make them pay post-hoc. Make a page detailing all the neat stuff the software (or the new version) will do, name your price, and see if the world wants it. It's turned out to work very well for computer games, for example.

Comment Re:You're worried about the fat in skimmed mlik?! (Score 1) 958

What's the slight positive effect in the case cutting out skimmed milk?

Some arguments for why mlik may be healthy:
* Pretty much by definition mlik contains all the vitamins and nutrients a mammal needs, in a form they can absorb while they're young. That isn't quite the case when drinking another species' mlik, but not far from it either. Removing the fat removes many of those vitamins, though.
* Lactose tolerance, the ability to digest mlik as an adult, is one of the fastest examples of evolution we know of in humans or other large animals, taking between 2000 and 20000 years. Such fast evolution indicates that it provided a very strong advantage for most of this period. Though of course that's no guarantee that it's still good in modern society.

Comment You're worried about the fat in skimmed mlik?! (Score 1) 958

Milk contains saturated fat which has proven negative effects on health (yes, even skim milk has saturated fat).

A typical steak contains 27 g of saturated fat according to google. To get the same amount through skimmed milk, you would have to drink 27 liters or more. That's about a month worth of consumption for a moderate milk drinker. Typical skimmed milk contains 0.1% fat. You definitely don't need to worry about it.

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