There's not one doubt in my mind that Virtual Reality is going to work.
I remember in the 1980s, there were all these people speculating that computers were a fad.
And I remember in 1993, when my nerd friends and I were in high school, talking excitedly about our experiences on the Internet. We were dialing into the public modems put up by The Armory, a geek house in Santa Cruz at the time, and from there with our SCO Unix accounts, we could talk with each other live via talk, use IRC, telnet, gopher, lynx, etc., ... We were talking about all of this, and this girl in our class overhears us, and says, "What in the world are you talking about?" And we, very excitedly, talked about how much information was available, how we had talked with and played games with people in Australia and around the world, how you could download entire programs, how you could program computers over the Internet, how were these huge usenet forums, ...
And she just listened to us for like a minute, before getting this weird look on her face, and said to us: "I'm never going to use that. I don't need no Internet. Nobody I know is ever going to do that."
That's what I hear when I hear skepticism about the Metaverse.
Now, it's true: Nobody cares about "The Information Super-highway." Everybody cares about the Internet.
And I don't care about "the Metaverse." But I know that Virtual Reality is going to be a thing.
Computers were really, really uncomfortable in 1982. I started using my mom's Compaq, in 1983, 84 -- something like that. And: Boy, it's hard to believe, but my 7 year old self figured out how to make it work. You had to boot the computer. You had to have the right disks in place. You had to know how to make backup copies. You had to know how to designate a disk writeable. You had to know about how much RAM you had. You had to know how to start BASICA. You had to know how to operate BASIC. You had to teach yourself to type -- very time consuming. With time, you'd have to know how to manually extend the RAM, you'd have to know the difference between Expanded and Extended RAM. There was a lot of stuff that -- quite honestly, most people just don't have time for.
And yet, there was also this really, really big excitement. People could imagine what it could be, and some people were really looking forward to that.
Companies, too, were all in. If there was one company I would say that -- people were sure, "This one is it. This company is going to own the future of computing" -- I think that company would have been IBM. I know that I imagined that -- come 2000, IBM would completely dominate the landscape of computers. And if it wasn't IBM, it was going to be SGI. Or Cray. Something like that.
And I remember how it was just -- there were companies of every size, big and medium and small and tiny -- It was a day in which some couple of guys, literally working out of their garages, could create some new device, some new peripheral, some new game or application, and make a meaningful contribution to the technological advancement. And it was just EXPLODING.
But, you know: You had to be there. Most people didn't care. If you didn't care, it was just this kind of oddity. It was a glorified typewriter. "Why do I have to do this on the computer, when there could be a failure, and it all just goes down the drain?" You were a computer person or you weren't, and most people weren't. They didn't see that computers had much to do with them. At a certain point, I think that people may have resigned that, "Well, I'm going to have to learn to use a computer." But it wasn't anything they were excited for. It was a physically unpleasant encounter, and they weren't nerds, and they didn't want to be nerds.
I think that -- the excitement that I see in the Virtual Reality space, and the huge number of companies getting involved, and making contributions at different levels -- it's quite amazing. And it reminds me exactly like the 1980s. The enthusiasts were really running the show, at the inter-personal level. They were holding conventions, LAN parties, and trading notes about what companies are selling what and "Oh my God have you seen this thing?" And they saw the future in their imaginations -- they could look past the great many things that **don't work,** because they saw what **did work.**
I think for *most* people, their real embrace of computers began with either (A) the Macintosh in 1984, or (B) Windows 95, in 1995. It amazes me that it took Windows about 11 years to catch up to the Macintosh, but hey, here we are, and that's how it happened. I think at that point, video games were pretty fairly rooted amongst those who cared about them, and I think that computers got to a certain "comfortable enough" point, that people who had spent 15+ years saying "no thanks" got to the point of, "Hunh, well, I guess I can deal with this..." It'd be another 5 years before it all felt firmly entrenched in most people's minds, I think. And another 7 years before Steve Jobs presented the iPhone, and people thought, "This is something really amazing."
But I remember throughout the 1980's, "This is a fad," or "It's just something nerds do." And what was the first thing the nerds were doing with computers? Computer games.
Well, I posit that 1982 Computers is 2022 Virtual Reality.
Facebook takes the role of IBM, weirdly. They say, "The future is THIS." And they're not wrong! Virtual Reality is totally going to be the future! But I don't think we can really guess who will be the "winner" in the space. I NEVER imagined that Microsoft would "win computers" the 1990s, in 1983. I mean, all they did was write an *operating system,* the thing that is in your way, until you do the thing that you *actually* are there to do. What mattered was a COMPUTER. I thought that -- it was between Compaq, IBM, Commodore (the Commodore 64 is STILL the highest-sales desktop computer model ever, in all of computing history,) or who knows, maybe Atari. Dell began in 1984, but I don't think it was on anybody's radar. I didn't think about HP until college in the mid-1990s. My point is, I think that the race is far too close to the starting line to say "who will win." I suspect that some company that hits public consciousness in 2030, but that the vast majority of us don't even know about, will begin to shape up to dominate virtual reality in the 2030s.
What I see here in 2022 Virtual Reality is that same combination of: Movies in the public sphere, over the past decade, recognizing the significance of virtual reality and working it into the background or foreground of its stories. (There were lots of movies by even the early 1980's, foreseeing that computers were going to be a big deal.) A niche of society, neophiles, exploring, without any particular training, but just really attached to the possibilities and excitement, building a network of people who keep on top of what's going on and eagerly going after it. Real businesses that sell real goods, making things and selling them, up and down the big-wig hierarchy, and exploring and contributing to the space. Also, a kind of irritated and indifferent public, that doesn't quite get it, but can't seem to quite make it go away, either. Rapid iteration in designs, with each years designs being noticeably superior to the last year's design.
Reasoning from the analogy, I expect that the following will happen:
The technology will get better and better every year. People will buy better and better headsets and peripherals for their kids. Full body tracking is available now, but it's fairly clumsy. Images are cartoonish today, and bandwidth rates are not enough. But wireless technology will continue to get better. NVidia's graphics cards will continue to push more pixels, for less. Issues that create motion sickness will, little by little, be solved. The operating system and user interface dynamics will get more and more out of the way. "It's just for the enthusiasts" will continue to be spoken, but fund advisors, military, corporations, will realize that they can work much more efficiently with these technologies as opportunities to exploit it arise. Telepresence, ways of programming in virtual reality, augmented reality systems for interacting with the real world, it's just going to gradually seep more and more into view.
I suspect that by 2035, the fundamentals of the operating system user interface will be mostly in place, and start to be usable. Also, that the equivalent of the "Internet" will hit public view. That equivalent is what Mark Zuckerberg is calling "The Metaverse" -- a kind of 3-dimensional space where people can transparently see and hear and interact with one another, in real-time, over the Internet, through virtual reality equipment. This is where you encounter people living 24/7 in the metaverse.
Now, this exists *today.* There are people today, in VRChat, who actually *live* in VRChat, 24/7. But let me remind you: The Internet *existed* in 1980, and there were people who used the Internet, *every day*, in 1980. It just was an extremely small scale thing.
"The Internet is just a fad." I remember hearing that all over the place. I had a much older friend than me, 1993, I'm guessing she was 30 at the time, a family friend, who *used* the Internet on a daily basis. "It's not going to work," she said to me, at a party. "The Internet is great, it's truly amazing, but there's no way that the infrastructure -- all of those computers out there! -- could possibly stand the load of the millions of people who would be getting on the Internet. It's just too much to compute."
I don't expect Meta to be the winner. You only get so many points, for correctly calling the future trend. Maybe it could win? But I don't know what the winning difference would come from. I don't think just being someone with the most money, AND the right view of the trend, is enough to win, either in 1982, or 2022. I don't think there's any telling who will win. But kudos to Meta for getting the right direction in mind, I think.
So, anyways, that's my picture. 2022 is 1982.