I think there is another gaming depression looming similar to the great Atari game depression of the early 80's.
While I agree that the amount of shovelware on consoles and clones on mobile platforms seems greater than ever (as a %), I don't think we're going to hit the over-saturation that caused the Game Crash of '83.
A big part of this is that gaming is far more decentralized these days. Back then you had a handful of consoles and limited computers. These days we're down to only three major consoles and two handhelds at any given time but now we have two (well, three if you want to include BB or WP) mobile operating systems as well as the PC and Mac (and Linux.) If consumer confidence (the lack of which was a major contributor to the '83 crash) falters it will likely be only on one platform (like the Xbone and/or Wii U) or with one company (such as EA). The number of indie developers now vs. then will also mean that, even should most major devs fall, games will still be made a-plenty.
Instead, I think we'll see the introduction of more curated systems for the mobile platforms. Apple seems to be giving gaming a more prominent place in their walled garden with the next version of iOS, which will likely include something that focuses on "best of the best" for presenting games up front (with all games, including the million "jump" clones, available if you dig a bit deeper). Android is much more decentralized, so each major carrier might bring up their own curated list, but I don't know how important gaming is to any of them beyond Angry Birds and Cut The Rope. Valve is in a great position here with Steam, but so far their mobile Steam app is only for working with your PC account on the go and doesn't seem to offer any Android games at all.
Ironically, it seems that the Big Three are trying to open their systems more to enticing indie games to be released on them. Mobile gaming (that is, phones, not the 3DS or Vita) is a far more casual crowd will put down just as quickly as they pick up, and so the massive amounts of shovelware just means that good games will get less visibility. This is what will cause a loss in developer confidence and lead to the curated gaming services. I also foresee a "renaissance" in the gaming development world: right now most studios are make or break on a single game, to something more streamlined and in line with movie/TV studios. Yes, it means the trend of sequelitis will increase, and we'll see lots of companies like Zynga, but it will also mean more stability for the industry as a whole, which will hopefully lead to more "A" titles (which are a bit cheaper, but still fun for a run through or two) instead of every developer trying to hit the coveted "AAA" title.
The likes of EA will drown in their own, self-dug pit of shit, but sadly they'll pull many good devs down with them before this happens.