Journal zogger's Journal: Some possible economic situations through 2010 13
An interesting article where odds are given for a variety of perhaps possible and in some cases, probable events to occur during 2010. The author has agreed with me in one of his odds makings, about a coming food shortage and big price jump being probable, he gives it an 80% chance. I don't agree with his China economic odds, I think they are higher than his 20% rating, and that they will be increasinly a lot more insistent on getting their way due to their threat of being able to collapse the dollar "at will". They have the catbird seat in that having a command economy, they can shift customers to *whomever they choose*, including internally, because they got the real stuff, and everyone else..do not. That is their big, highly credible fallback ace in the hole.
They also can just give better deals in goods to those areas they source raw materials and energy from, a totally robust enough market and large enough to ignore the US and Europe if push came to really hard shove. That's right, I said ignore, as in "go pound sand, sucker, and thanks for the free giant manufacturing base, have fun with YOUR tens of millions of out of work and annoyed people, higher energy costs, and worth-less-daily IOU paper!"
I keep reading all the time people saying china "needs" the US as a market and so on and dang, that was true 30 years ago, but please, get with the modern times and take a look at what has happend since then, this isn't true now, they GOT what they wanted, it is a fait accompli, it is past tense, they now have the means of production, the worlds largest ever created. The "two billion armpit" theory, the way they first sold this con, and I know some of you clearly remember that, has been debunked now by true facts modern day reality. They not only got a shipload of IOUs they are sitting on now from their exports, but as they were eating that deal raw, they doggedly kept shipping the machine tools and expertise needed to run and build same home, now they don't need much more, so the artificial need to sell us stuff at incredibly cheap prices to maintain that swap is *over* for the most part. You go way back and look, see what China was importing, not exporting but buying, importing, for the past few decades, and I have, you'll see what I am talking about. A to Z, the ability to make any-thing. That's what they have been spending on, and even then, buying as much as they needed, they still made enough to dramatically increase internal spending, buy up the raw materials and energy sources they need all over the planet, plus accumulate the biggest pile of IOUs from other folks ever. In 30 years they pulled that off. If you ain't scared, you ain't paying attention.
The IOUs used to be at the top of the wealth heap, but now, they are at the bottom (where they belong) and if they need to sacrifice them, they can, and pull through it. Temporarily painful, but not near as painful as it would be to the IOU issuers when their supplies of most everything get cut off. I don't think they will need to, the western pols and businessdweebs who have been selling everyone out, selling the US and Europe down the river for short term gains just don't care, they are, and have been, *professional liars*, high stakes conmen, grifters, so, seeing as how this is their nature, they will keep their little rigged scam going as long as possible, and will kowtow to them and give them most anything they want. But even if there was resistance, say due to populist pressure and social unrest, China retains the "go pound sand, sucker, we don't care, keep your toilet paper, we got all the real stuff" backup option.
And all of those US and European black suited grinning grifters who wrangled this big huge wealth transference scam so they could skim a few points from it..they all think that when this big push comes to shove situation occurs that they can go just relocate and sit over there and be some sort of big poohbah or something.,,man..ain't a single damn one of them turkeys ever cracked a history book to see what really happens in similar situations. Here's a hint, it involves the locals going "we don't need you anymore, you were a traitor to your own people, untrustworthy to the extreme, plus,,your services no longer needed...you are now an unreliable liability not an asset.. bye". Pop to the head, some local fatcat takes over that operation.
China (Score:2)
I think China is an interesting case, and I think most people seem to have it wrong, at least in the long run.
I suspect people look at China as an emerging economic powerhouse with wiser hands at the helm than those in the US. It may appear that way, but I see China's leadership as wanting the best of both worlds. They want all of the economic, material, etc, benefits of modernization - the good side of freewheeling innovation and entrepreneurism, yet they also want to firmly retain their political power.
Supply maintenance (Score:2)
I've caught a few things you've said on the topic before, but can you tell us a few of the things you do to maintain the longevity of your supplies? Do you rotate your canned goods and staples? How do you keep track of the expiration dates on a good sized survival or emergency stock? It seems like such a good idea in uncertain times, but is it practical?
Sure (Score:1)
Basically just a normal grocery store type restocking. A little tedious but not that bad once you get into it. Move the oldest forward on the shelf, place the newest in the back. And yes you can get shelves with a slight slant and lay the cans on the side so they roll forward, but I wouldn't like to do that with home canned glass jar stuff..just because. You can modify existing totally flat shelves in your cabinets with some cut small pieces of plywood, add a lift to the back for a slope, then a cross piece
Re: (Score:2)
That's useful info, thanks!
You are welcome (Score:1)
I just did a review on a new high tech splitting ax [boardhost.com] on my site, you might be interested in that as well (even if you don't heat with wood now..ya never know...). I am at about a cord even now splitting with it, works better than the older traditional splitting maul and wedges for most wood. Certainly faster. Now over the past few days working with it off and on (dang cold here lately, that splitting action warms ya up and gives me something to do..) and I got my aim and swing down good..zooba. best single h
I wonder... (Score:1)
...if your predictions of what will happen suspiciously coincide with what you're prepared for (e.g. food stores and water supply) and you don't prognosticate about what you're not prepared for (e.g. defending that food and water from armed mobs)? Either that's just part of the hobby of survivalism, or you've been predicting doom for a long time now.
I predict none of TFA's bad things happen in 2010. People like to only feel negative for so long, and then irrational optimism takes over. There will be no cras
I don't (Score:1)
Umm, I have been a survivalist since well before the term was invented by Kurt Saxon, since the mid 60s. It's because I have lived through several epic fail situations of where not being a survivalist was an obviously bad idea, like major weather related disasters, unexpected job losses, injuries, etc. I look at it as real life in my hand tangibles insurance, as well as a spiffy lifestyle choice with very low stress levels, and the ability to weather geopolitical events much easier than the other way, ie, b
Re: (Score:1)
I just think if you've invested a lot (time and energy and learning and face) in getting yourself set up for a doomsday scenario, and you're to the point where you're all set for it, and then it doesn't come, and it doesn't come, and you get a teaser (like a severe economic recession), but the big one still doesn't come, or at least the size you've been preparing for, you would be in a way disappointed, that you desperately want to be proven right and be able to say "I told you so", so you're going to be pr
Re: (Score:1)
OK, I see what you are saying now. Nope, don't work that way. At least for most survivalists I know. We prepare for nasty eventualities as a risk mitigation effort, hoping to not ever have to go full bore into it, but it is modified to the extent that incorporating this mindset into our daily lives, it stops being an issue of a "chore". It just becomes automatic, and you learn to roll with it. Boy scout motto "be prepared" taken into adult life and situations. Like first driving, buckling a seatbelt. You ar
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(This is probably more understood if you have grown up and lived a long time where weather extremes, especially the extreme cold, are not an annoyance but a clear threat of injury or death if situations change radically for the worse.
Yes, this is prolly a big part of it -- I've been a SoCal boy all my life, and except for the fires that with all our smarts and technology we're quite powerless to stop, and an earthquake every few decades or so, nothing ever interrupts the modern daily life here. I would prol
When just in time..ain't (Score:1)
I spent some months before twice in socal, once lived in hollywood proper, then again in huntington. Yep, if that's it for thinking about contingencies due to inclement weather, you would have no real frame of reference. That area is about as moderate and easy as it gets on the planet. You are pretty susceptible to dramatic and sudden loss of freshwater supplies though..one earth quake away.
It takes about two years to adjust to radically different climates..it ain't that bad, I've done it several times now.
Re: (Score:1)
Heh, if I was *that* adventurous (and young (and "normal"!)), I'd prolly go look over in *rusky* land! (And change my name to "Ed Balls"! (from your referenced article))