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Comment Re:Shocking! Indeed! :-) (Score 1) 128

Me from 2000: https://dougengelbart.org/coll...
        "Powertech -- Twenty years to widespread fuel cells, PV, wind, microturbines, etc.
  Source: My general reading in this area, like my previous post on energy issues. ..."

The referenced energy post by me from 2000: https://dougengelbart.org/coll...
        "The current land area used in the US related to fossil fuel mining, refining, storage, and distribution is roughly 1% of the US land area. So, it is not fair to say renewables would use a similarly large amount of area and disregard this amount of space used by conventional techniques. For example, the area under existing power lines in the US (for right of ways - a huge expanse) is sufficient to generate all electric power used in the US if it was covered with photovoltaics. ... Recent advances in photovoltaics (especially combining light collection of visible spectrum piped to interiors with power conversion of remaining wavelengths) may soon make them much more competitive. ...
        There are no easy answers, but remember the incredible number of people who use energy (all of us) and the large numbers of people who are already involved with the energy industry in some way. So, there are many people to implement solutions. Don't be too overwhelmed by large numbers and costs. If fossil fuel and nuclear solutions were fairly priced today in terms of external costs like tax subsidies, environmental damage, and military requirements, we would see an immediate switch to alternatives and more energy efficient technology.
          For that reason, I am quite hopeful for our energy future -- especially if developing countries can be given advanced technology, rather than having them simply duplicate the current antiquated American fossil fuel infrastructure. Unfortunately, the politics and finances of development often entail developing nations being sold the technology that no one wants anymore in the developed world (like for example DDT or old nuclear reactor and dam designs).
        We need to figure out ways to prevent that from happening with energy technology the same way it has happened in the past with other technologies. ..."

Me from 2010: https://groups.google.com/g/op...
        "As I've said before, if you look at the exponential growth of renewables, in twenty to thirty years we will be completely running off renewables. This [questionable "Net Energy Limits and the Fate of Industrial Society"] report is like a report in the 1980s saying there is no way that most people will own cell phones because only about a million people a year are buying cell phones and it would take seven thousand years for everyone to get a cell phone at that rate. But now half the Earth's population does have cell phones? What happened? Exponential growth."

Ray Kurzweil also predicted exponential solar growth back in 2000 or so.

So yeah, who would have thunk it?

I mean, it's not like there might have been financial incentives for industry groups to provide misleading predictions, right?
"Why Does the IEA Always Underestimate Solar Energy's Rapid Growth?"
https://247wallst.com/energy/2...
        "Using data from the agency's World Economic Outlook (WEO) for 13 of the past 16 years, Hoekstra graphed the actual growth of solar PV installation (the thick black line on the following chart) against the IEA predictions from the WEO. The starting point for each year's new prediction moves higher and in some years sharply higher. Hoekstra notes that "every single time since the future of photovoltaics was first predicted in the IEA WEO in 2002, the WEO has assumed the sector would hardly grow or even contract, even though this runs contrary to the observed reality."
        Because the IEA's WEO is a widely used source for policy makers around the world, consistently underestimating the growth of solar PV when the data say otherwise discourages investment in solar and can hold back even faster growth. ...
        Hoekstra, in a blog post last June, offers some possible explanations for the IEA's low and inaccurate predictions: ... The IEA could have been captured by the old fossil energy order in terms of thinking or interests. This could be conscious or unconscious. I would guess largely unconscious because I'm a firm believer in Hanlon's razor. ..."

Comment New achievement unlocked (Score 1) 166

In 1971, 'Creeper' proved the concept of a computer virus. Years later, experts were calmly and sometimes patiently explaining to people that you couldn't get a virus from an email.

Then Microsoft threw the weight of it's huge dev team into the effort and finally made the email virus a reality.

Now, 30 years later, LLMs have at last given teeth to "the honor system virus".

Comment A need for OSCOMAK or C2C or similar (Score 1) 82

As I talked about circa 2001 at the Thirteenth SSI/Princeton Conference on Space Manufacturing May 7-9, 2001:
https://www.kurtz-fernhout.com...

And earlier: https://www.kurtz-fernhout.com...
And a later version: https://www.oscomak.net/

And Slashdot in 2005 and later:
"We need DOGS as well as CATS!"
https://slashdot.org/comments....
https://science.slashdot.org/c...
        "So, what is a bottleneck is that we do not know how to make that seed self-replicating factory, or have plans for what it should create once it is landed on the moon or on a near-earth asteroid. We don't have (to use Bucky Fuller's terminology) a Comprehensive Anticipatory Design Science that lets us make sense of all the various manufacturing knowledge which is woven throughout our complex economy (and in practice, despite patents, is essentially horded and hidden and made proprietary whenever possible) in order to synthesize it to build elegant and flexible infrastructure for sustaining human life in style in space (or on Earth).
        So that is why I think billionaires like Jeff Bezos spending money on CATS is a tragedy -- they should IMHO be spending their money on DOGS instead (Design of Great Settlements). But the designs can be done more slowly without much money using volunteers and networked personal computers -- which was the point of a SSI paper I co-authored ... or a couple other sites I made in that direction: ... My work is on a shoestring, but when I imagine what even just a million dollars a year could bring in returns supporting a core team of a handful of space settlement designers, working directly on the bottleneck issues and eventually coordinating the volunteer work of hundreds or thousands more, it is frustrating to see so much money just go into just building better rockets when the ones we have already are good enough for now. ..."

Earlier companion ideas from 1988:
https://pdfernhout.net/princet...
And circa 1990: https://pdfernhout.net/sunrise...

Anyway, that stuff is all mothballed at this point, but the ideas remain essential. Along with the idea that thinking through how to support human life in space can lead to ideas that better support life on earth.

For example, here is a Slashdot article from today -- sounding almost like this is a new idea to process a rock into all it constituent minerals:
"IT Researchers Develop a Low-Cost Technique To Get Lithium Out of Rocks "
https://science.slashdot.org/s...

But in 1980 a NASA workshop (under Jimmy Carter) includes documentation for an "HF Acid Leach Process" for processing lunar ore into separate components (which did not specifically over Lithium but presumably could be expanded for that).
"Advanced Automation for Space Missions"
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citation...
"TABLE 4.12.-- RESEARCH DIRECTIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW PROCESSING TECHNOLOGIES FOR UTILIZATION OF LUNAR AND SILICATE MINERALS (Criswell, 1979) ...
3. Chemical processing:
* Demonstrate the electrorefining and alloying of metallic "free" iron.
* Demonstrate with simulated lunar soils on the bench-scale level the HF acid leach, ammonium salt fusion, and mixed acid leaching based on adaptations of well-known terrestrial industrial and laboratory procedures for extracting major oxides and elements (0, Si, Al, Mg, Ti, Ca, Fe) from a wide range of bulk lunar soils. Rates of throughput, recycle efficiencies, and separability data should be determined in these demonstration experiments. Implications of reagent composition from native lunar materials should be determined.
* Recycle chemistry: Investigation of alternative methods of salt splitting or recycling acids and fluorides.
Topics: Pyrolysis of NH4 F. Conversion of metal fluorides to compounds more readily pyrolyzed - sulfites, formates, oxalates, etc. Conversion to hydroxides with NH3 . Conversion of NaF (from sodium reduction) to Na, HF, and 0 2 via NaOH and Castner cell, or from fused fluorides using consumable anodes.
* Literature studies of methods to recover minor and trace element fractions obtainable from immiscible liquid extraction of magmas (molten fluids) such as would occur in glass production. ..."

See also the diagram: "Figure 5.41.-- Flowsheet and process equations for the HF acid-leach process."

We could have had such technology decades ago if we had made the investment into sustainable "cradle to cradle" design and manufacturing (motivate din part by space habits but also earthly needs).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
        "Cradle-to-cradle design (also referred to as 2CC2, C2C, cradle 2 cradle, or regenerative design) is a biomimetic approach to the design of products and systems that models human industry on nature's processes, where materials are viewed as nutrients circulating in healthy, safe metabolisms. The term itself is a play on the popular corporate phrase "cradle to grave", implying that the C2C model is sustainable and considerate of life and future generations--from the birth, or "cradle", of one generation to the next generation, versus from birth to death, or "grave", within the same generation.
        C2C suggests that industry must protect and enrich ecosystems and nature's biological metabolism while also maintaining a safe, productive technical metabolism for the high-quality use and circulation of organic and technical nutrients. It is a holistic, economic, industrial and social framework that seeks to create systems that are not only efficient but also essentially waste free.[2] Building off the whole systems approach of John T. Lyle's regenerative design, the model in its broadest sense is not limited to industrial design and manufacturing; it can be applied to many aspects of human civilization such as urban environments, buildings, economics and social systems."

This also connects to Bucky Fuller's "Comprehensive Anticipatory Design Science":
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
https://www.bfi.org/about-full...

That's all initiative the USA lost by offshoring manufacturing to China and elsewhere. I hope at least engineers in China and elsewhere will see the merit of comprehensive C2C design eventually.

Sadly, I did not go to my 41st Princeton Reunion, so I missed the chance to remind my sometimes Physics lab partner (and then-president of of the local SEDS chapter) about all this. Sad to hear one of his rockets blew up yesterday:
"Blue Origin rocket explodes into huge ball of flame on Florida launch pad"
https://www.bbc.com/news/artic...

Again though, we have long had the rockets -- like the Saturn V from the 1960s -- even though it is true they could be better. What we don't have is knowing in detail what to put in the rocket payloads! Or how to operate the bases or habitats the payloads would produce.

At least games like "The Planet Crafter" and "Satisfactory" and others (including Minecraft and Vintage Story) explore that all a bit. Some others including Moonbase Alpha:
"Games created in collaboration with NASA"
https://steamcommunity.com/gro...

Comment Re:This should not be acceptble... (Score 2) 124

Is that a serious question? Even in the late '70s when dinosaurs roamed the earth, the kids were dealing with the technology the parents didn't understand. While that is starting to be inverted (GenX and Millennials seemed to be peak tech-able), many parents still rely on the kids for that sort of thing.

Comment On the need for social&environmental improveme (Score 1) 197

To support your point about a need for broad social&environmental improvements, consider: "The [critical of] RFK Jr. Op-Ed the Los Angeles Times Didn't Want You to Read"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/rfk...
        "... For decades, U.S. public health policy has been dictated by neoliberal principles that prioritize privatization, deregulation, "free" markets, and associated profits over public care systems. ... Illness is framed as a matter of individual behavior and personal failure--poor diet, sedentary lifestyles, or smoking, for example--rather than the result of policies that undermine rights to healthy environments. ... Meanwhile, social problems like poverty, isolation, and trauma are medicalized, treated as individual pathologies requiring individualistic interventions, like often-ineffective pharmaceuticals or psychotherapy that cannot touch root causes, while ignoring the necessity of investing in systemic, collective solutions. This diverts resources from community-based social care and prevention, generating profits for industry while leaving patients with endless bills and disappointments. ... For example, policies like universal childcare, housing-first initiatives, and direct cash transfers improve health outcomes while reducing poverty and economic insecurity. During the pandemic, expanded child tax credits and direct payments helped millions of families and brought dramatic health and safety improvements to communities--proof that public investments can make an enormous difference for public health. ... In this spirit, this approach to public health centrally prioritizes community-based, nonprofessional care services that have been shown to improve both mental and physical health while reducing medical needs and health care costs. ..."

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