Considering the ridonculous cost of one SLS launch, it's hard to get excited about Artemis. Consider, it's estimated that it costs $4.1B to launch 95 tons to LEO with SLS compared to $97M to launch 63 tons to LEO with one Falcon 9 Heavy. That is, for the price of one SLS, you can launch about 27 times the mass to LEO with FH.
I can well imagine Artemis landing on the Moon, only to find that SpaceX is already there.
It could just be a simple shuffling of senior positions unrelated to Rogozin's bombast. Or perhaps he's being replaced by someone more strident and controversial?
However, manned spaceflight is a major source of pride for the Russians, and they know full well that without the ISS, they have no reason to launch people into space. They must know that the other members of the ISS consortium must be working on (or have already developed) contingency plans for an ISS without Russian participation. They have 2 years. In 2024 the first Axiom module is expected to arrive at the ISS, and considering it will be the first module for a post-ISS space station, it will almost certainly have the capabilities currently provided by the ROS. At that time, Russia may well be booted off the ISS.
Russia has announced plans for a post-ISS space station, but for all intents and purposes, that's all bluster. It took them more than 15 years to launch Nauka. And now given the current situation, they really can't afford anything new. In 2 years, Russia may well be out of the space business all together. So perhaps the Russian government felt it needed to replace Rogozin with someone who might be more conciliatory? We'll have to wait and see.
Basically, if the Russians follow through on this threat, the ISS is screwed.
If the ISS splashes sooner rather than later, then so be it.
ISS is now at end of life. The US segment seems to be in good shape still, but the Russian modules are showing their age. Zvezda has a serious leak that they're still unable to fix, which is hampering operations.
Although there were very good reasons to bring in Russia to the ISS consortium, they have had trouble meeting their commitments. How many years late did the Nauka module arrive? With the sanctions now against Russia, they will be hard-pressed to find funding for continued operations.
Realistically, even without the current blustering, I don't see Russia participating past 2024 anyways. Once they Axiom Hub One module arrives, it will certainly have the attitude control and life support functionality currently provided by the ROS, and then they can easily get along nicely without the Russians. They just need to dust off their contingency plans and muddle along until then.
But if the ISS must be splashed before then, the Axiom Station will still go ahead, and perhaps be better off. Without the Russians, they can launch to a more economical lower inclination orbit.
In the meantime, I can only imagine how well the Russians will get along with the other astronauts on board the ISS. Given the current situation, there must be tension between the two groups. Sure, they are professionals and will get the job done. But at least one of the cosmonauts has expressed support for his country's recent actions. That can't be helpful.
Decades ago I worked with someone who was at the status meeting where Microsoft gave IBM the shaft. Up until then, there was that partnership. IBM presented first, and then the Microsoft rep came up and presented their status. The IBMer's realized the implications of Microsoft's status, effectively ending the partnership, while the Microsofties present were smiling giddily.
"Most of us, when all is said and done, like what we like and make up reasons for it afterwards." -- Soren F. Petersen