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Comment Re:Yeah... (Score 1) 78

If we got rid of 90 percent of humanity, or returned to hunter gatherer ways, we wouldn't need to worry about airplanes or houses or overeating.

Or if, you know, we developed ways to generate and use that don't produce carbon dioxide emissions, and ways to capture CO2 from the atmosphere and sequester it, then we wouldn't have to slaughter billions and return to a subsistence lifestyle.

Can we maybe try a carbon tax for a couple of decades first? We can always do the murdering later. Given the birthrate trends, if we wait a century the population will crash without doing anything.

Comment Re:That desperate for press leading into IPOs? (Score 1) 45

I think you have a very generous view behind the true motives of these disclosures. The "let's do it safely" train left about 2 years ago.

Until the AIs have actually taken control there's still room to try to figure out how to align them with humanity. I suspect we are running out of room, though. Fast.

Comment Re:Who could have seen that coming? (Score 1) 65

Actual quote was "by 2025, AI will allow developers to complete a week’s worth of work in four days".

That quote was in the article, but the article title was about a four-day work week. Kamelia Aryafar, the author, clearly thought (correctly) that AI would allow engineers to get a week's worth of work done in less than a week and then thought (incorrectly) that this would mean developers would respond by ending their week as soon as they had done that.

What actually happens, of course, is that if you can get done in one day what used to take five, you now do five weeks' worth of work every week.

Fundamentally, productivity isn't the constraint on working hours. If that were true, Keynes' expectation that we'd be working 15-hour weeks would be true. What constrains working hours is the limits of human ability to remain attentive and focused and the demands of human life, and those constraints turn out to be roughly 40 hours per week. A little more or less than that depending on the person and on the nature of the work.

Increasing productivity has never really changed working hours, it just increases productivity, which makes us all wealthier. Yes, all of us, including the workers -- if you believe all of the gains accrue only to the bosses or owners of capital you really need to learn more about what life was like in past decades and centuries.

Comment Re:That desperate for press leading into IPOs? (Score 2) 45

You sound like an idiot

The things AleRunner mentioned are plausible outcomes of misaligned artificial superintelligence, and the research in question is trying to prevent those outcomes. If you have good arguments as to why those outcomes are implausible, a lot of people would like to hear them -- including the AI companies and their safety researchers.

Comment Re:That desperate for press leading into IPOs? (Score 1) 45

These daily "weird flexes" from the frontier AI companies are getting tiresome.

You misunderstand the purpose of this research, and the reason for publishing it. The research is not about "flexing", it's about safety, trying to understand the risks that we may be facing as the agent capabilities increase. AGI or not AGI is actually irrelevant here. What the researchers are trying to understand is what the agents will do when they face apparent opposition.

The cooperative results are great, because we think that's what we'd like highly-capable agents to do, to look for reasoned, peaceful resolutions. What we don't want them to do is to become aggressive, or to fail to step back and look at the larger situation.

And the reason for publishing it is to enable other researchers to see it and build on it, quickly, because everyone working on this stuff understands that it could pose an existential risk to humans. Find and talk to some people who work on AI research; they all worry about this. Many of them actually believe that we'd be better off if everyone stopped the research, or at least slowed it down significantly, but everyone knows that's never going to happen. So, their best option is to create the most capable and best-aligned AI, as quickly as possible. It needs to be well-aligned so it doesn't pose a threat to human existence. It needs to be capable so it can protect us from badly-aligned AI.

Get on with the IPOs already so we don't have to read these stories every day.

The IPOs won't stop the research, nor the publication. If you're not interested in it, just don't read it.

Comment Re:I think it may be a good idea... (Score 1) 254

4.0 GPa is actually a lot of pressure!

If students are being subjected to 4 GPa of pressure (40,000 bar), that's a real problem. I mean, that would crush their bodies beyond the limits of molecular cohesion, rupturing all cell membranes and turning all of their bodies' water into high-density ice. If the university is regularly murdering students this way, they should be stopped.

I'm not sure how pass/fail grades help, though.

Comment Re:Its a first step, the easy part, ... (Score 1) 67

Admittedly, this is work-in-progress on building something so I should cut them some slack. It does seem tough to get over that energy density x payload = range issue. True that early electric autos were also range-starved, waiting for the better LiPo's to be developed and scaled to cost.

But if the Wikipedia is correct that "106 foot wingspan plane" maxes at 110nm range currently. Not sure what sort of altitude that includes. 110 miles to ride a plane is a tough sell, even if you are just trying to connect a spoke city to a hub city. Like would someone fly from Milwaukee to Chicago...maybe, I guess. That Joby air taxi says 150 miles range, but they are only carrying a handful of people.

But leave it to the chemists and engineers to tweak some more miles. Fundamentally I agree that most stuff on the ground should be powered by electricity (trains, trucks, cars, buses) and stuff in the air could use bio-fuels once widely available.

Comment Re:What SHOULD humans learn now? (Score 1) 83

It's a good question, but I think framing it as what humans need to do to be able to live alongside ASI is the wrong way to look at it. The right way to look at it is "What do humans need to learn how to do to have fulfilling lives?".

Of course that question also depends on what makes sense for humans in a world run by benevolent ASI. We don't need to bother thinking about humans' role in a world run by malevolent or even disinterested ASI because there will be no role.

Comment Re:Block AI in schools (Score 1) 83

Your point about primary sources is correct. However, educators did *not* consider Wikipedia equivalent to other encyclopedias. They explicitly did not trust it, while they considered traditional encyclopedias more reliable.

Sort of. When my kids were in public school in the 2000s and 2010s, book encyclopedias were sometimes grudgingly accepted as source. Not always, and it was often made clear that they weren't proper sources (because they're not!). The solution was to use Wikipedia but to follow the reference links to the primary sources it cites and use those.

I thought that wasn't just a good answer, but a strict improvement over accepting hardcover encyclopedias, both pedagogically and as a matter of scholarly principle.

Comment Re:ATC desperately needs an upgrade (Score 1) 119

Appreciate the insight from an aviator. Agreed I still want a human in the tower (and two in the cockpit). In some ways your post reinforces what I am noting, namely that there have been a host of technological improvements in aircraft and ATC like GPS, TCAS, and the ones you listed above. But then those improvements are all pushed through the same bottleneck of one or two controllers managing hectic workload on a few common frequencies.

A recent example of an 'unforced error' might be the tragedy Air Canada jet crashing into a fire truck at La Guardia. Truck was incorrectly cleared to cross an active runway.

Comment Re:Great (Score 1) 177

CA is also:
#1 in homelessness AND #1 in per capita homeless spending!

CA is #6 in homeless per capita among states. #1 is NY. I can't find any good nationwide numbers on homeless spending; it doesn't seem like anyone collects that data. However, I did find numbers from CA and NY, and NY spends nearly three times as much per capita as CA, so CA is definitely not #1.

#1 in poverty

Per the official poverty measure, CA is #22. That's arguably not a great measure, though, since it assumes the value of a dollar is the same everywhere. Using the supplemental poverty measure, CA is #2, behind Louisiana (#3 if you include DC, which falls between LA and CA). LA is high because people are actually very poor. CA's poverty rate is high even because though incomes are relatively high, housing is very expensive. Anyway, not #1.

#1 in highest taxes (excluding property tax the only tax stat they are middle-of-the-road)

CA is #11 in percentage of income collected, though it does have the highest marginal rate. It's important to keep in mind that CA's tax burden is more progressively allocated than most other states. If you're middle-class, your tax burden in CA is about the same as someone in TX or FL. If you're poor, CA is cheaper. If you're rich, CA is more.

#1 in lowest in adult literacy rates

#6, not #1. LA, NM, MI, TX and NV are numbers 1-5. Well, that's "average literacy score". If you want to look at percent with literacy skills at or below PIAAC level 1, then CA is in a three-way tie for #2. #1 is NM, #2-4 are CA, TX and MI. Either way not, #1.

Personally, I wouldn't want to live in CA, mostly because of their ridiculous gun laws, but it's a pretty decent place to live by most measures. It's best if you're highly-educated and highly-skilled, because while it costs a lot to live there, you can also make a lot of money.

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