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Comment Re:In 2024, why is the market only open 9:30-4pm E (Score 2) 31

There are extended sessions, the market is open effectively from 7am-8pm: https://www.nyse.com/markets/h... (ctrl+f "late trading session")

Why not longer? Effectively exchanges, brokerages, and anyone involved in trading would need staff 24/7. Its been awhile since I was out of the direct electronic trading world, but no firms I saw had an ability to do zero-downtime deploys, so you needed maintenance windows. I myself had a little "oops" when I was doing an upgrade on a trading engine right after FB announced earnings that made the price jump. I made some kind of error and it was down for roughly ten minutes, but exactly the wrong ten minutes, and it was costly to the firm. Prior to that, we didn't really think about the post market that much, because very little action happened there.

Comment Emissions to get the things to space? (Score 3, Insightful) 166

I was under the impression that sending things to space requires a ridiculous amount of non-renewable energy. Has anyone seriously calculated when the solar panels would break even, especially compared with a comparable installation on Earth? Also, what is the cost of replacing panels 20 years down the road when they start degrading?

It is probably much cheaper to just fill Sahara with panels and invent some way of storing and reusing energy during the night.

Comment Re:Suspicion this isn't a real "particle" - prepri (Score 5, Informative) 55

You are correct. This isn't a discovery of a new fundamental particle.

The math that describes particles can also be used to describe various quasiparticles that arise in materials. For instance, one can rigorously define a "phonon" as a particle that carries vibrational energy in a solid material (the phonon is essentially a localized packet of atoms vibrating), or an "exciton" as an electronic excited state (an electron and the corresponding positively charged "hole" it leaves behind), or a "plasmon" as wave of electron excitations at the surface of a metal. All of these are interesting concepts, and defining them as particles is extremely useful. But they are not fundamental particles. They are collective excitations of known entities (electrons, atoms, etc.).

One can thus establish a mapping between the math of fundamental particle physics (the standard model), and the math/behavior in various electronic systems (like superconductors or other "strongly correlated electron" systems). This is useful because in principle if you prove something in one instance, then there is a good chance the analogous thing is true in the other system. So discoveries can go both ways.

The problem is with media reports that do not make these distinctions clear. What the current researchers did was identify an "axial Higgs mode" in a "charge density wave" (CDW) system. They basically discovered a particular kind of excitation of the electron configurations in that material. Very cool stuff. But to then make the leap and pretend that this means they've discovered a new fundamental particle is just bad reporting.

Comment Re:So I've read the article now (Score 2) 119

Apparently he took out a "Flash Loan" and borrowed the tokens. Once he executed his trades to grab the money he bought up enough tokens to repay the loan and all was fine.

It seems it is totally normal for 18-year-olds to take out multi-million dollar loans with no collateral to back them in the crypto world? I feel like this points to a whole lot of other potential problems in the crypto/DeFi world.

Comment Re:Yup, and the iPhone was just a fancy Palm Pilot (Score 1) 85

I don't have mod points but 100% agree. I actually turned down a job offer from Peloton about 5 years ago, partly because I thought it was a fad. Wife was addicted to Soul Cycle, I went with her a few times and learned I HATE group fitness and vowed to never go back. She decides she wants a Peloton, she had been going to Soul for about 10 years regularly and it was starting to feel a bit stale. I roll my eyes, figure its going to be a dust collector but say whatever lets give it a go, this was a few months before the pandemic started. I am mostly sedentary at this point- I get all of my daily activity from commuting more or less.

Today, I am at a 105 week streak and have lost weight and am actually fit and look good- I am not quite six pack abs but close enough. The "gamification" with the leaderboard, the engaging enough instructors, the quantitative ranges that tell you exactly how fast to turn the pedals and exactly how much resistance you need (Soul Cycle would just say "alright two turns to the right and now we are going 1-2 1-2 1-2" and I would get scolded for not being able to match the cadence from that) the tracking of stats over time so you can see just how much you have improved, the library of classes so you can choose the people you really like... its all gotten me over the edge and exercising regularly.

It just frustrates me because people hate on the idea and have never even seen one- and this shows most because those critics don't even realize that there is far more available than just the bike- yoga, strength, running, bootcamp classes... etc. I guess people can hate, but it absolutely brought value for me, and even saved my household money- the wife has not been to Soul Cycle since we got it (and Soul classes are about $40 each after water and shoe rental). I looked into pricing out a DIY setup with a decent bike (which alone can easily cost more than a Peloton bike), a zwift trainer, and a tablet and all that, and it came out to more than the Peloton for a hacked DIY solution. I am pretty sure the types that are like OMG so expensive what idiots!!!- don't even realize how expensive a bike you actually want to ride for real periods of time are.

The only thing I disagree with is the IPhone/Treo comparison- I knew in 2007 when I was rocking my Treo 650 that I was willing to pay big bucks for a device that could combine an Mp3 player, an e-reader, a pda, a phone and GPS into one package. I didn't even realize with an Iphone I would also get a decent camera a basic web experience, and how much location bases services would allow useful apps...

Comment Re:Texas (Score 1) 284

You only need a something over 50% of the mining power -- as long as they can add new blocks with no Assange transactions at a faster pace than than the rest of the mining pool they can keep the longest chain Assange donation free. A 51% attack isn't just for double spending, and simply blocking particular transactions is the kind of thing you might be able to get tacit agreement for; and it does only have to be tacit if you are fine with a few transactions getting through every now and then (which also helps hide any collusion).

Comment Re:Texas (Score 1) 284

It solves the problem of "where do I go if Powers That Be decide to boot me off traditional wire transfer systems". Like has already happened in case of Julian Assange and his legal defense fund.

It swaps in some different powers that be. If Wikileaks published something that embarrassed people behind a bunch of the major miner consortiums and they decided to just not include any bitcoin transfers to Assange or Wikileaks in blocks they mined that could severely limit or completely stop such transfers, depending on how big a proportion of the mining pool they pissed off. And let's be clear, there are a very small number of mining consortiums that control a very large fraction of the total hashing power; this is a lot more possible than it may appear at first blush.

Hell, even the old school powers that be could put a severe crimp in things if they were sufficiently motivated. If such a power decided to lean on the mining consortiums they could likely get the result they want with either enough bribes or a big enough stick (and they would have both).

Comment Re:One Day... (Score 3, Informative) 148

There isn't a single project plan for fusion (that I'm aware of), mostly because this is a challenging problem being attacked by a host of different organizations (some publicly funded, some commercial) across many different countries. However, there is communication and coordination among these efforts, and they do have concrete plans that are moving steadily towards viable fusion power.

For example, the US fusion community has produced several reports (2018, 2019, 2020). The US Department of Energy is one key player in this space (here are the reports for various sub-topics). A key aspect of the current fusion strategy is ITER, which has a set of concrete milestones.

If you glance through those reports, you will see they are more focused on fundamental science aspects, rather than the more practical milestones you mentioned. This is in part because these public reports are issued by organizations whose mission is to pursue fundamental research (and then pass those results onto industry for commercialization), and partly because there are indeed many fundamental science and engineering questions that need to be resolved.

The EUROfusion roadmap (2018) provides a plan for successive projects (ITER and beyond) in a transition to viable power plants.

Comment Re:Numbers don't add up (Score 4, Informative) 187

The NIF press release is a bit better.

Fusion yield was 1.3 MJ per pulse/capsule. Laser energy delivered to the fusion capsule was 1.9 MJ, so the efficiency is 68% by that metric. However this omits the laser energy that didn't get correctly focused/absorbed by the capsule, as well as the energy lost in the lasers themselves (which are probably ~1% efficient). The press release doesn't list a gain factor, but based on other results NIF has reported, I believe this new result is roughly Q ~ 0.007. This is a huge achievement for NIF (who were sitting at Q ~ 0.00008 in 2013 and Q ~ 0.0003 in 2018). However Q = 1 is what's necessary to reach "scientific breakeven" where the fusion energy output equals the energy input for heating the plasma. Obviously a viable power plant needs to be Q > 1 to account for other losses (like the inefficiency of capture/conversion into electricity). Q > 5 ("ignition") is considered necessary to achieve a self-propagating fusion reaction.

By way of comparison, the current record for magnetic confinement fusion is Q = 0.67 achieved by JET in 1997.

Should we be excited? This is great progress, and every new experiment increases our understanding of the complicated physics of fusion plasmas. From a scientific and engineering perspective, this is amazing. However, if you're most interested in eventual fusion power, then magnetic confinement (tokamak designs) are well ahead, and ITER is much more likely than NIF to provide a pathway to fusion power plants.

Comment Re: We abandoned real value (Score 1) 231

There is real innovation happening in the space, and as it all transforms from pure speculation into tangible, useful applications and assets, prices rise.

The biggest current (last couple of years) price rises have been in Bitcoin, which is over a decade old now. Since it has been around so long, but the price is still going up a lot, presumably that is happening because of "tangible useful applications". So what are those applications? As a currency it has stalled, not least due to price volatility. Despite occasional bursts of announcements of retailers accepting Bitcoin, the number of retailers actually accepting Bitcoin remains very small, and often quite niche. Bit coin is not taking over as a currency. How about Bitcoin as a means of fast, easy, cross border money transfer (remittances). In the early days of Bitcoin is was widely touted that Western Union was going to get crushed by Bitcoin. It turns out Western Union is doing just fine. And over the major money transfer corridors WU fees are often lower than Bitcoin. Other major remittance agencies are also doing just fine using traditional methods. If any service is getting squeezed out of the remittance industry it is crypto ... fees can be larger, money often still needs to be exchanged from Crypto to local currency with all kinds of associated other costs, and so on. How about "digital gold", a hedge against inflation? It is not clear Bitcoin is really doing any better here, and assets and investments to hedge against inflation is a pretty huge market; Bitcoin has very limited appeal over all the other options available. So again, what are the magical tangible useful applications that make Bitcoin so very valuable? It's been a decade, but there still isn't anything to show ...

Comment Re:Critcism (Score 1) 169

Bitcoin is cheap: It's worthless as a currency!
Bitcoin is expensive: It's a bubble!
Bitcoin prices are volatile: It's useless as a currency, it's too volatile!
Bitcoin prices are stable: It's dead! Nobody is buying!

The first mistake is evaluating bitcoin by its "price". Assuming the key is that it is a currency the real question is the volume of actual transactions going on in bitcoin.

What is the amount of good purchased with bitcoin? It certainly isn't huge. How about remittances? Money transfer was one of the big use cases. It turns out that, despite a lot of hype and years to make a difference, bitcoin in particular and crypto-currencies in general, have made practically no dent in the remittances market. How about total volume of transactions? That's certainly higher, but how much of that is speculation trading based on the price of bitcoin? Hard to say, but surely we would see higher amounts of goods purchases and remittances if it really mattered.

So, instead of looking at prices, if we look at utility how is bitcoin doing? It's been a decade and it still hasn't had any significant uptake as currency -- not on any scale that justifies the hype anyway. Might it still be useful and gain traction in the future? Sure, it's possible. But the outlook isn't that great.

Comment Re:Nope (Score 4, Informative) 36

The underlying point TFA is trying to make (though not necessarily making it well) is that there is one class of problems for which quantum computers are already better than classical computers: simulating the behavior of small quantum systems.

You are right that current QCs are still too small (and have too high an error rate) to implement any of the "quantum supremacy" algorithms that people dream about (like breaking cryptography). It will be a long time still before those are ready for realistic use. However, many scientists are actively studying quantum mechanics, and simulating such systems on conventional computers is extremely computationally expensive, owing to the complex non-classical correlations that underlie quantum effects (superposition, entanglement, etc.). There are rigorous theories/proofs showing how the effects go beyond the classical.

So the idea is to use a quantum computer to simulate a quantum system. You get all these "quantum correlations" for free. Of course you may consider this "cheating". It starts to sound less like quantum computing and more like doing a physical experiment that is highly analogous (rigorously analogous) to the experiment you are trying to understand. And you are limited to rather small systems. But, at least, this points to some interesting near-term goals for quantum computing folks to work on: how to make these systems better and better at simulating larger-and-larger quantum systems.

Comment Re:Aspirational fitness is a safe market (Score 1) 34

The idea of going to a gym is ghastly to me. All that time getting there and back, dealing with locker rooms and such... ugh. Even when I had one in my building I felt it was fairly inconvenient to go.

So, I actually turned down an offer from Peloton a bit over 4 years ago. I thought it was a fad, I didn't like the group fitness cycle classes I took at Soul Cycle that my wife asked me to join her in. I really rolled my eyes when in November 2019 my wife said she wanted to get one. I thought it would be a clothes hanger and a waste of money. Luckily, my company let me expense the subscription portion in lieu of paying for a gym membership. Yet.. here I am on a 64 or so week streak on the thing. The draw is I just go down the hall and get on the thing and get right off and get in the shower and its not a real even out of my day that requires planning around. The instructors are engaging enough and do a good job of keeping me out of my comfort zone, even though I now routinely finish in the 10-20% of the class. The fact they keep "score" helps motivate a bit too.

And its not just about the bike, though that is the primary draw. There are yoga, strength, walking/running classes, and probably a bunch more. I have done a "power yoga" and a bunch of bodyweight strength classes. But I am never going to a gym, and will be on the Peloton. I mean clearly its not the same workout, I would much prefer to get my cardio doing some intense treadmill running and then do some weights for more focused strength training, but I look better than I have ever in my life, and its entirely due to Peloton. I might be somewhat unusual, but all those parents out there, and those that feel that Peloton is good enough are likely to going to keep it and may not even go back to a gym.

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