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Comment Smugness all over (Score 1) 176

During the cold war there was MAD and it was taken seriously.
Now the Russians still take it seriously but our side has become extremely smug. "we survived that long, we clearly know what we are doing" , "the russians are bluffing, we can keep pushing and they'll never dare go nuclear" "those russian nukes are in such a bad state they won't even launch", I've heard every stupid argument.
Meanwhile we have bombed Valdai while Putin was there, we bombed early warning radars and nuclear bombers, and we keep going longer distance with our drones.
There was always the fear that MAD wouldn't work against real crazies. Well, the real crazies are us.
Certainly not the Iranians, they're completely at the other end of the spectrum. Capability ok but actually building nukes, woah, won't go there.

Comment Re:That is not how the math works! (Score 1) 176

Yes. But not as precise as the numbers suggest. It's more like Drake's equation: you don't really know but you fill in different numbers that look reasonable and each time you end up with the same conclusion. In this case, it becomes hard to see how human civilization makes it into the 22nd century.

Comment Too different (Score 1) 140

We have two elementary ways to perceive our interactions with 'alien chemicals'
- the War of the Worlds way: When the Spanish landed in South America they brought diseases the people in South America had no defense against and they all died.
- The separate worlds way: two specialized mechanisms exist next to each other , they have not adapted to each other and therefore they can barely interact and they mostly act as if the other does not exist.

with mirror chemistry we know a lot of stuff won't fit so the separate worlds hypothesis gets the preference. But you can't possibly predict what will happen without going into the details, which will mostly mean trying it out..

Comment That's a diversion (Score 1) 140

The main risk right now is from the gain of function research.
You don't have to be convinced of the covid-lab leak thesis in order to come to that conclusion , even before covid.
The awful thing is that once people manage to slap the 'conspiracy thinking ' label on is everybody's thinking just shuts down. Not only about this instance but about the general risk.

Seriously, not only are there a lot of conspiracies going on at any time, how is a lab leak even a conspiracy? Conspiracy to cover it up , sure. But how often is there not such a conspiracy going on...

Comment Niche is not revolutionizing (Score 1) 33

A wheel like that would be a niche thing, like when Michelin reinvented the wheel eg see here https://www.designboom.com/tec...

It's very nice to reinvent basic things, like the wheel or warm water, but it doesn't mean it will revolutionize what is out there. It will likely become a niche thing which means most of the market is unaffected.

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