Comment Re:we’re probably gonna bust past 1.8C (Score 1) 187
unless nature flicks us off like the fleas that we are, i’m pretty sure the planet is gonna sprint past that finish line.
Since all of the climate-warning cutoff values — 3C, 2C, and 1.5C — were taken from papers where they were tossed out as aspirational goals, each with no scientific justification for that value over any other, although dire predictions were ascribed to exceeding these values, such as a 2022 study published in Science titled Exceeding 1.5C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. The IPCC parroted the study: "Exceeding 1.5C could also trigger multiple climate tipping points — such as breakdowns of major ocean circulation systems, abrupt thawing of boreal permafrost, and collapse of tropical coral reef systems — with abrupt, irreversible, and dangerous impacts for humanity." (1.5C: what it means and why it matters) And since the UN has declared we've already blown past this critical temperature goal, we can sit back and wait for the catastrophes that we have been repeatedly told, in increasingly apocalyptic warnings, would happen once we inched past the 1.5C breakpoint. Based on the accuracy of the 1982 declaration by the UN that the planet would be facing an ecological disaster within two decades, its 1989 warning of a 10-year tipping point, IPCC chief Pachauri's 2007 declaration that it would be "too late" if action wasn't taken by 2012, and its recent retirement of the IPCC's RCP 8.5 (aka SSP5-8.5) warming scenario as "implausible" (despite having been used for more than ten years as the foundation of other individuals' and organizations' apocalyptic claims, some of which continue to be made despite their foundation having been pulled out from under them), though, I'm not expecting much from this UN announcement, either.