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Comment Re:Screens don't teach. (Score 1) 75

Fortunately (or unfortunately) these trends and ideas make much less of a difference in a child's educational success, than parents.

That's my belief. Do you know of any data comparing all the various influences? Money, parental involvement, charter vs. traditional public, teaching methods?

Comment Re:Screens don't teach. (Score 1) 75

But these things do tend to work themselves out over time. In the 1970s, for example, there was a big push for "new math"

The problem is, every generation of educators seem to get a bee in their bonnet to come up with new teaching methods and we go through it all again. We seem sadly incapable of learning from past experiments. There's always some new fad method. What I find annoying is we also seem incapable of trying controlled experiments and patiently waiting to see how well it works. If new math is so great, try it with 1,000 schools for a few years, then objectively study the outcome before rolling it out to the masses.

At the same time, the educational establishment is stubbornly opposed to accepting data when it tells them something they don't want to hear, e.g. charter schools work pretty well and closing schools during COVID did not. Upton Sinclair got this one right: ""It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it."

Comment Re:Procrastination kills (Score 2) 7

They've had 22 years to figure this out, but now it's a crisis requiring a rush mission because nobody thought it was important enough to do something a year ago, or five, or ten.

Swift is also 22 years into it's two year lifetime. It's lasted 11 times longer than planned. I'm kind of astounded that it still works and hasn't had problems with things like gyros failing.

I'm all for trying to dock and boost it. It's a great opportunity to try it out and if it fails, well, the mission was due to end anyway. Satellite telescopes don't last forever. You just would have thought people would have been looking into this for years so it wasn't a rush job.

Comment Re:"Risking health of billions" an overstatement (Score 1) 66

They 'jump' to that conclusion because it's based papers based on analysis of crops grown in identical soil conditions.

Does it? I'd hope so, and that they're comparing the same varieties of crops. I couldn't follow the paper well enough to tell if they filtered studies based on how well they controlled for those confounding factors.

Comment Re:"Risking health of billions" an overstatement (Score 1) 66

Seems a bit weird that they immediately jump to CO2 did it, as opposed to looking at mineral depletion in soil. Wouldn't you expect the mineral content to go down over time as the plants absorb minerals and get harvested over multiple generations?

It is and it isn't. They had a hypothesis, "increased CO2 affects nutritional value" and they set out to answer it. If they had a different question, "why are plants less nutritious than in 1970?" or "are people's diets less nutritious than in 1970?", they would need different research. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that, it's fine science.

We, the readers, should understand they asked a specific question, got a specific answer, and we cannot conclude based on that answer, that increased CO2 will cause nutritional problems in the future. It may be, it may not, this paper doesn't tell us that.

Comment "Risking health of billions" an overstatement (Score 5, Insightful) 66

The fine headline is leaping to quite a conclusion.

I was able to try reading the actual paper this time. It's a bit dense for me but whatever. It's a meta-analysis. The authors didn't actually grow any plants but consolidated results from many other papers. So far, so good. This is a normal research process.

From the quoted summary, it finds a 3.2% decrease in minerals in major crop plants. That seems a small effect to me, likely overwhelmed by other factors. For example, if you were living on 1500 calories a day 30 years ago and now get 2000, I'm going to go out on a limb and say you're likely to be healthier even if each individual bean is less nutritious.

There's also a lot of other things going on. I couldn't follow their methodology well enough but I wonder about confounding factors. For example, were they comparing the same strains of crops? Seed companies come out with new varieties all the time and it wouldn't surprise me if that has a much larger effect on nutrition than CO2.

In summary: interesting research. I'll take their word they found a real effect. I'm not at all alarmed because I expect there are much larger changes at play.

Comment Re:This is misdirection (Score 1) 154

The real reason food is less nutritious is soil exhaustion from commercial farming, not CO2.

It's certainly a plausible hypothesis. I'd have to read the original article to see whether they considered this.

I'm pretty sure part of commercial farming was selectively breeding crops to make them sweeter because that sells better. The last 60 years have also seen tremendous increases in crop intensity so it's entirely plausible there are fewer minerals left in the soil. Or that plans bred to grow more food per acre just have less energy available to incorporate minerals.

These all seem plausible to me and ought to be testable. Well, the soil composition bit may be hard, you'd need soil samples from 50 or 100 years ago.

Comment Re:Regarding pilots ... (Score 1) 78

"Ladies and gentleman, today's flight should be about 20 minutes, excluding the stops every five minutes to recharge for an hour. Enjoy today's flight. Oh, and there's no meal service, bathroom, or drinks, because that stuff is too heavy."

Feel free to not ride in one. We're going to ignore your preferences.

I strongly suspect Joby surveyed potential customers and discovered they don't need a snack or to pee in the five minute flight from Manhattan to JFK, even if they're old white guys.

Comment Re: Just build more roads (Score 1) 199

Self-driving cars are not the answer. Adamsomething on YouTube explains why.

No doubt. I was being flippant.

Thing is, HSR is a solution looking for a problem. I can drive SF to LA in 5-6 hours and then I've got my car with me so I can get around LA. If I take the train, it will take something like 3 hours, on someone else's schedule, and I don't have my wheels when I get there.

Alternatively, I can fly it in about the same amount of time so unless it's much cheaper, the money would be better spent improving airports.

If the distance is any longer than SF->LA, flying wins. If it's any shorter, driving wins. The range of trips where a train wins is as narrow as the track itself.

Comment Re: $231 Billion (Score 1) 199

Apparently that's the plan. Phase 1, the Merced to Bakersfield connection has spent something like $13 billion and is expected to be anywhere from 10-20x that by the time it's done.

We should absolutely stop this madness today. $30 billion was supposed to get us from LA to SF, two places people actually want to travel between. They don't even have a plan to actually deliver what was promised.

Comment Re:$231 Billion (Score 1) 199

How much track have they laid for the $231 billion?

To be fair, I think that's the expected total price tag. They haven't spent that much yet. But none is the answer. Not a single mile of track is ready. I think they've built a bunch of overpasses and track beds, that's about it.

I keep wondering just how long we'll ignore the clear language of the proposition which authorized this money pit. It was very clear: LA to SF, in under two hours, with no more than $10 billion of state funding.

Comment Re:$231 Billion (Score 1) 199

California has some of the best and brightest in government so this seems like a good plan to be responsible stewards of the US taxpayer.

California may have some bright people in government but they sure don't get the headlines. It seems to mostly be staffed by opportunists, idealogues, and useful idiots.

I've lived in California for close to 40 years. I've had one representative I was impressed by (Tom Campbell). The rest have been fools I'm glad I don't have to spend any quality time with.

I take that back a little. Chuck Reed was a good San Jose mayor. Pat Dando was a good city council member. So that's three.

Comment Re:"one-time, 5% wealth tax" (Score 1) 348

They seem to think they can get a few years out of it by limiting how much can be spent in one. Of course, that just pushes the problem down an election cycle, which is all most politicians seem to care about.

This is being driven by SEIU-UHW, not politicians. Most politicians in the state are vocally against this. It's amazing, the union found a tax even union-funded Californian politicians think is too much. That's quite an achievement.

It's also blatantly self-serving. Tax billionaires to fund a health care program which will hire...well how 'bout that, the union which sponsored it!

Comment Re:"one-time, 5% wealth tax" (Score 1) 348

Setup costs don't repeat, so the cost of follow-on years will differ. A large incoming lump sum also allows you to pay down debt, releasing money that would have gone on yearly interest payments, which provides more money in future years than the current budget.

TBH, I haven't really followed the proposal. Are they suggesting creating a new health care system? That seems wasteful, we have plenty of existing programs. And we don't typically use the endowment approach, where a program has an investment fund which provides ongoing income. Well, except state pension funds, which are massively underwater right now so that's not a great model to follow.

Anyway, the numbers don't work. The proponents say the tax will raise $100 billion. Invested wisely, that's $5 to $10 billion in income a year. The state budget is something like $350 billion so this is a drop in the bucket. It's not a compelling argument.

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