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Comment Re:The SpaceX Valuation is Insane (Score 4, Insightful) 46

SpaceX is worth more than Microsoft or Amazon at this point. It boggles the mind how much people are betting on the future just because Musk is a genius. If he gets sick the stocks craters 80% easily and this $60B is more like $12B.

He's not a genius, I sincerely think he's average to slightly below average intelligence for a software dev. Just look how clueless he really is when he pretends to be a technical guru in front of actual experts.

That doesn't mean he doesn't have some exceptional skills, but IQ isn't one of them.

First, he's hard working, at least in spurts (during critical deadlines), and he's willing to make and implement big decisions quickly. Just look at DOGE, Republicans have been trying to lay waste to the US government for decades, but Musk is the only one to actually do it. It was a complete disaster, but it wasn't ethics or common sense that stopped the previous attempts, that's a legit talent for Musk.

Second, CEOs aren't allowed to lie, but Musk has figured out that you can get around that by building a cult of personality and then making ridiculously optimistic predictions and then sell minor advancements as progress. The result is he has a core group of retail investors that buy his stocks based on vibes and refuse to sell once in. Since these retail investors prevent the stock from going down too much institutional investors also jump in on the ride. It's basically tulip bulbs.

Comment Re:Queue the jealousy and entitlement (Score 1) 311

Musk has risked almost every penny he has on multiple occasions.

I agree he has an extremely high risk tolerance, though that doesn't make him a good person.

He has created, commercialized or drastically improved four things (five if you count the boring company). The 1T of his wealth benefits society in the products we all consume, the environmental gains (he was the first to mass produce electric cars profitably), the jobs he has created and the taxes paid by him, his companies and his workers.

His car company is pretty small as car companies go, SpaceX means some new satellites, but Starlink is the only thing that's really making a difference to normal people. And Neuralink might help a lot of people in the future, but it largely R&D now.

His wealth doesn't come from what his companies have done. It comes from his ability as a promoter and its ridiculous effect on the stock price.

the environmental gains (he was the first to mass produce electric cars profitably),

He worked hard to get Trump re-elected, if he was in fact the tipping point, he has harmed the environment far more than he has helped.

Not to mention all the potentially hundreds of thousands of people who died due to his cuts to DOGE.

Do you see any socialists doing any of these things? This is one capitalistic person. He's done more for the environment than any green party. He's created more wealth and better jobs than all communists combined.

It sounds like this is more to do with your ideology than Elon Musk.

Comment Re:Racism. (Score 2) 222

The entire original argument for Brexit was based on racist nationalism.

They wanted to kick the foreigners out (while still letting their own elite vacation in Europe).

Humans are tribal, in modern times that tribe is usually their nation, and they care deeply about the survival of their tribe.

If immigration is seen as changing the fundamental nature of that tribe (nation) people will resist it.

We need to figure out a way to deal with that fact if we want to continue to have relatively open borders.

Comment Re:Holy Pre-IPO Hype, Batman! (Score 2) 56

Anthropic made Skynet? I think not.

As it happens, the Chinese are capable of making their own near-frontier models, many of which they release publicly as open weights.

It's not hype, Anthropic is literally saying there's no actual risk they're aware of.

What actually happened is they refused to let US Intelligence agencies use their models to perform illegal surveillance. So now the US government is illegally punishing them.

Comment He hacked capitalism (Score 3, Insightful) 311

The whole point of stock markets and such is that you have hard core rational investors ensuring valuations are accurate.

But Musk figured out that you don't need solid fundamentals, all you need is a hyper-loyal core following of retail investors who support you regardless of fundamentals. So you just bullshit just enough to keep them happy, without crossing too far into fraud, and the retail investors stay on board.

The retail investors create a floor for the price and their crowing about their winnings creates a bubble. The institutional investors then see what's happening and hop along for the ride.

The result is the two most overvalued companies in history (Tesla and SpaceX). In theory, the whole pile eventually comes crashing down, but just like any bubble the fund managers who buy are unlikely to be the fund managers left holding the bag.

Comment Re:Left vs right hand (Score 1) 156

I recall that this was discovered a long time ago when sales and marketing people realised that people would tend to turn right after they enter a store. I also seem to recall that this didn't hold true for left-handed people.

It would be interesting to see data from countries that are left-hand traffic. Streams of people in left-hand traffic countries tend to walk on the left side, and tend to move to the left if someone is walking towards them - which tends to be fun when walking about a right-hand traffic country! Though given these results were also tested in Japan, which is left-hand traffic, I'd expect there isn't a difference.

Would make sense, if you're right handed and turn to the right you're leading with your dominant eye (and hand) so better able to handle threats that emerge.

Similar if you choose to pass someone on the left, you present them with your stronger (right) side.

But this study supposedly found no correlation to handedness, so either something else is going on or maybe a sample size issue.

Comment Re:Oh look. (Score 1) 346

Sorry, let me clarify - the modern conceit of applying that term to the Arab (Jordanian, Syrian and Lebanese) and Egyptian people who left instead of becoming Israelis, was invented by Arafat (an Egyptian). The word Palestine was derived from Philistine, referring to the child-sacrificing enemies of the Jewish people who were famously defeated by David and ended up founding Carthage. Those people no longer exist.

It is thought that Rome renamed the region as an insult to the Jews who were driven from their land after they revolted in the first 70's. Arafat resurrected the term in order to unite the ethnically diverse "refugees" - which I put in quotes because they are not refugees, they chose to leave instead of becoming citizens because that's how much they hate the Jews.

Drop the bigotry. They left because their land was being given away by Western superpowers to a bunch of foreigners. They did exactly what any group of people would do. And they had a far better claim to that land than Jews who hadn't lived there for centuries, especially considering those Palestinians were actually descended from the ancient Israelites.

On the other hand the ethnic cleansing in the West Bank being carried out by Israeli Settlers, with the support of the Israeli government, is not typical or excusable.

Comment Re:Not really (Score 1) 346

The main difference is that these things move. That adds to the level of danger, but not to the immorality. Landmines have done the autonomous killing for about 800 years now, apparently.

The main difference is that this technology will be harder to contain. A terrorist burying a landmine in a park is plausible, but not the most practical attack.

A terrorist letting out a few of these things in a park... that is terrifying.

Comment Re:Oh look. (Score 2, Insightful) 346

70+ years of "Palestinians" (a term invented by the Egyptian Yasser Arafat) refusing to accept the existence of Israel and trying to exterminate the Jews. The dead-enders who refused to become Israeli citizens (as very many of their fellows did) and tried to eradicate Israel the day it was formed. And then again. And then again. And then again...

What a shock that the "Palestinians" were unwilling to allow a different ethnoreligious group to move into their homeland, and give them the choice of being second class citizens or expelled from their territory entirely.

Who could imagine that they would have reacted exactly the same as literally every other group of people on the planet?!?

Comment Re:I want to see inexpensive plugin hybrids but .. (Score 1) 135

You might want to read up on how current hybrid vehicles actually work, 'cause it seems you have more than one misconception going on.

I have. For instance, my latest vehicle is the Ford F-159 XLT,, the full-hybrid model of the F-series pickup truck line. Power train is:
  - 6 cylinder dual-turbo engine. (runs low power but approoximately doubles output when a lot is needed.)
  - 47 HP motor-generator "pancake" on the engine side of the ttransmission, to scavenge / return power to./from a 1.5 kWhr lithium battery.
  - 10-speed automatic transmission, working with the lithium battery;s main alternator to fine-tune match the engine/mogen to the current driving situation. Max power of engine plus hybrid mogen; 430 hp.
  - full four wheel drive.

So it's primarily a gas-engine power train with an electric-car motor mechanically coupled to the engine shaft. Many other hybrids, from the venerable prius onward, are similar, with plug-in variants having a big scavaging/peaking battery good for pure electric operation of tens of miles rather than a minute or so and a wall-powered charger added.

What I'm looking for is essentially a pure electric - totally electronic "transmission" consisting of alternator(s) between the batteries and the motor(s), plus a tiny engine-generator able to burn gas and feed some teens of KW of charging power into the batteries when running down the road or parked near it.
 

Comment cobalt chemistry, not so nice. (Score 1) 115

Do the Waymo batteries use one of the lithium chemistries including cobalt, or a non-cobalt chemistry such as lithium iron phosphate?

Cobalt chemistries have a higher power/weight and energy/weight ratio, which made them the go-to chemistries for vehicle batteries. But they also produce oxygen when the cells overheat, leading to an unextinguishable runaway fire hazard: A burning cell makes enough heat to ignite the adjacent cells, so the whole assembly of them goes. Bad enough when it's a car's worth, but a disaster if it's a shipping-container sized module of a utility energy storage site. (And even worse when the site is a building full of racks, which someone had "protected" from fire with water-spraying, equipment-shorting system, so the whole site burns up, as happened recently with one in California creating a toxic mess.)

That's why purpose-built stationary lithium energy systems use non-cobalt chemistries - heavier, but a shorted cell just kills itself without getting hot enough to light off its neighbors.

Comment I want to see inexpensive plugin hybrids but ... (Score 1) 135

I want to see inexpensive plugin hybrids.

But not like the current ones, which are primarily an engine/tranny powertrain with a motor/generator + small battery for scavenging downhill/braking energy for later accelleration/uphill/cruise/power-boost.

I want ones that are primarily a battery-electric with a small aux engine-generator (say 15-20 HP range), big enough to power crusing with a bit left over for gradually charging. That would let you range-extend by the size of your gas tank plus fillups (i.e. indefinitely if only gas is available) or go from battery empty to back on the road in a couple tens of minutes.

The backup engine would only run at max-efficiency speed and could use an atkins-like cycle (see "liquid piston engine") to get the max power out of the fuel. Most operation would use power-grid charging (when available and cheaper than fuel).

Comment Meanwhile, at Carnegie Mellon... (Score 4, Interesting) 193

Jensen Huang to college grads: "Run. Don't walk" toward AI

https://www.axios.com/2026/05/...

Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang told graduates at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh yesterday that demand for AI infrastructure is creating a "once-in-a-generation opportunity to reindustrialize America and restore the nation's capacity to build."

Why it matters: With many college grads fearing AI could obliterate their career dreams, Huang pointed to boundless opportunity as a "new industry is being born. A new era of science and discovery is beginning ... I cannot imagine a more exciting time to begin your life's work."

Nvidia, which makes AI chips, is the world's most valuable company. Huang told 5,800 recipients of undergraduate and graduate degrees that the AI buildout will require plumbers, electricians, ironworkers, and builders for chip factories, data centers and advanced manufacturing facilities.

"No generation has entered the world with more powerful tools â" or greater opportunities â" than you," he said. "We are all standing at the same starting line. This is your moment to help shape what comes next. So run. Don't walk."

"Every major technological revolution in history created fear alongside opportunity," Huang added. "When society engages technology openly, responsibly, and optimistically, we expand human potential far more than we diminish it."

Full speech: https://www.youtube.com/watch?...

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