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Comment Typical Tesla - big promises, no follow-through (Score 1) 179

Tesla promises are usually not fulfilled. So you can disregard their projected delivery numbers. The real constraint here is probably charging infrastructure. If you have a big electrical service at your warehouse, and are making lots of short-haul deliveries, this is great. The economics make sense. And you can buy a non-Tesla electric semi to do the same thing with the same benefits, but without dealing with a crazy supplier. But for long haul, this is not a realistic option. That's only a small part of the market, but it's the part of the market that this does not really serve. Which is not to say that we need to keep using diesel trucks - merely that transition to electric is complicated and contextual and does not require BS promises from a vendor that always over-promises and under-delivers.

Comment Politics with a grain of truth (Score 1) 169

Generating capacity is not the same as power generated, since wind and solar are sporadic. Nonetheless, China generated about 2x the amount of electricity in 2024 as the US. But they have much more manufacturing, which is power hungry, and 4x the population. Per-capita, the US generated 2x the electricity as China. So what? I don't know. Just metrics. Good for China to have developed economically so fast, from such a low base, to a solid middle-income country now. But what about politics? Well, both the US and China have deeply shitty governments. Both are incredibly corrupt. Both are driven by stupid ideologies rather than data or a desire to help their populations. China's is more violent against its citizens domestically, whereas the US is primarily violent towards foreigners (in the US recently, vis-a-vis ICE, but also via wars around the world). Are Trump and his sycophants doing untold harm to the US? Yes, definitely. Will the US ever recover from it? I doubt it. Is China's economy bigger than the US in hard currency terms? Not yet, and not clear if ever. Is it bigger than the US in purchasing power parity terms? Quite likely. Should we care? I don't see why.

Comment Unreliable FSD (Score 1) 245

Okay, putting aside the political insanity for a moment ... I have a Tesla car. I've had 2 free trial periods (1 month each) of their full self-driving capability in the last 6 months. Both were used as data collection + marketing exercises by the company. I tried FSD a couple of times during each interval. My impression: * 99% of the time, it's really impressive. * 1% of the time, it's terrifyingly awful, and could kill someone. That last 1% is hard, it seems, and they don't seem to be making much headway. Elon is delusional in thinking he'll get there soon, unless the pace of improvement changes materially, more or less now. Waymo is doing it, and by all accounts very reliably, but they have way more sensors and I would guess better software. Less flashy public presence, more hard engineering. I'd trust Waymo/Alphabet/Google to drive me around sooner than I'd trust Tesla/Musk and the associated craziness. And I *own* a Tesla (nice car, overall).

Comment Re:Doomed (Score 1) 230

The problem for Toyota is that the lifetime cost of ownership of a Tesla M3 is, for most people (depends on driving distance, cost of gasoline, cost of electricity, etc. but this is generally true) *lower* than something like a Camry. So you can buy a pretty basic sedan from Toyota, or - as you point out - a pretty luxurious car from Tesla, and over time, the luxury car is actually cheaper! That spells trouble for Toyota, and is one reason why some car makers (e.g., Ford) don't really make small cars or sedans any longer - they can't compete with either ultra-low-cost vehicles from Korea or low-TCO-though-high-up-front-cost vehicles from Tesla.

https://insideevs.com/news/586195/tesla-model3-rwd-tco-toyota-camry-2021/
(yes, it's a biased web site, but their metrics look reasonable)

Comment Missed the boat, trying for FUD instead (Score 1) 230

Toyota totally missed the boat on EVs. Well meaning but ignorant leadership.

Now they are desperate to catch up. They won't have a competitive or compelling EVs for years, so they are reduced to pushing lots of fluff about future technology (no demos, no production, no realistic timeline, no product) in the hope that customers wait for them to get their act together rather than just buying a competitor's product and never looking back.

They look more like "walking dead" than "leading OEM" ...

My prediction, which I support with exactly the same amount of evidence that Toyota uses to prove they can make a good EV: Toyota's market share in NA and EU will collapse in the next 5 years.

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