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Comment Re:Please sir (Score 1) 150

now imagine Iran got nukes...

Attacking nuclear facilities is at least moderately rational. Various countries have done that half a dozen times over the past few years. Attacking drone manufacturing and storage might also be reasonable.

But...

What does an illegal decapitation attack have to do with nukes? Do you think the new supreme leader is going to somehow be more rational than the last one? There is a fundamental difference between going after clear military targets to prevent Iran from developing weapons that threaten their neighbors and going after civilian and government targets.

If you don't stop them now. They will just dig deeper and try again. They will keep doing this until someone stops them.

No, they will keep doing this until they are a nuclear power. They've seen what denuclearization did for Ukraine, and it's hard to argue with their logic. Having nuclear weapons is a strong deterrent to invaders, who realize that the response could be swift and devastating at a scale that countries never recover from.

It's unclear what other things they will do at that point. We can only speculate. Mind you, I don't like the idea of a nuclear-armed Iran, but again, I see no evidence that anything happening over there right now is going to change anything, or even delay it enough to matter.

Iran knows it can close the strait any time it likes. Are you willing to just let them hold the world hostage? Pay them the toll and buy their oil so they can get to the nukes faster?

Is anything that the U.S. government is doing right now going to change that reality? The way you prevent them from laying mines is the same way that you prevent oil from leaving Iran — bombing ships the second they leave the harbor. If you're not willing to start with a full air and naval blockade, you've already failed, and the only thing continuing the war can do is increase the number of ways that you've failed.

Comment Re:Maybe stick to the speed limit? (Score 1) 132

Most speed limits are arbitrarily set and have no legitimate reason other than to generate revenue from speeding tickets.

Most speed limits are in residential areas, as most road miles are in residential areas - those speed limits are not set to generate speeding ticket revenue, or do you really think it would be safe to drive, say, 40-45 MPH down a neighborhood street?

At 3 A.M.? Probably. At 3 P.M.? Unlikely.

Most of what makes neighborhood streets dangerous is pedestrians. After dark, this concern goes way down. At some point, it becomes effectively zero, and the only thing increasing the risk is the number of driveway entrances, and in particular, blind driveway entrances.

School zones are another place where the speed limit is set for safety, not revenue generation - it has to do with reaction times, stopping distance, etc.

And, of course, the presence of small children who behave erratically. In general, you should drive those speeds whenever you see evidence that small children are playing or are likely to be playing anyway, e.g. when driving past parks before sunset, when you see small children walking down the sidewalk while tossing a ball back and forth, etc.

And when there's no evidence of children, it doesn't make sense to slow down nearly as much.

Cyclists and pedestrians are also a big risk. They often behave in unpredictable ways. Also, if you pull out in front of cyclists, this is a very bad thing. But all of those factors are also highly timing-dependent. When there are no cyclists nearby, a road can be 45 MPH, but when cyclists are nearby, you need to slow down. Drivers need to have the situational awareness to realize that driving at the speed limit is not always safe, because the alternative is for the speed limits to be set so low that they are always safe, which results in miserably slow roads.

I've heard of neighborhoods pushing for 5 MPH (8 KPH) speed limits. When cyclists and even some pedestrians would be ticketed for exceeding the speed limit, you're doing it wrong. Even at 15MPH, there's only a 9% chance of an accident seriously hurting a pedestrian even if you don't slow down at all, so the benefit would only come from drivers who are completely not paying attention, and would likely be cancelled out by a higher number of drivers zoning out and not paying attention, in which case the chances of pulling out in front of a cyclist (who realistically won't be going that slowly) goes up. No free lunch. But that doesn't keep people who don't understand statistics from saying "If 25 (residential default) is good, 5 is better."

Comment Re:I would love to be in that hearing (Score 1) 25

"So, you think critical infrastructure shouldn't be repaired!?"

They know that critical infrastructure *must* be repaired, and want exclusivity over those repairs so that they can profit unreasonably.

So, let the companies retain their monopoly over repair and then regulate that repair business as a monopoly, with government oversight, regulation, and approval of all prices and offerings. If a free market doesn't exist, then there is no free market to be enabled by a laissez-faire government approach.

In theory, sure. In practice, the FTC regulates things like this about as well as the CPUC regulates electric rates. Regulatory capture and bending to industry pressure has become the default at this point. Right to repair laws are really the only solution. Such laws distribute the enforcement responsibility by potentially enabling random annoyed DAs to prosecute or class-action attorneys to sue, depending on whether they are written as civil or criminal law.

Comment Re:Please sir (Score 4, Insightful) 150

You sure you want this regime to win? Consider what happens if we pull out now and the current regime remains in power. What happens next year? What about the year after? You really think that everything is gonna return to the way it was before? And, was everything really that peachy keen before?

This reasoning is flawed. The same logic could easily be used to justify genocide. When I read your post, I read it as:

"You've killed 5% of [insert group of people]. Do you really want to stop now? Because if you do, the ones who are left will hate you for the rest of your lives, and will find ways to attack you for decades. The only reasonable choice is to nuke the entire country."

Because literally, you could justify turning Iran to glass with your same logic. This is why decent human beings do not even consider starting a war without a concrete strategy, including:

  • goals that they hope to achieve
  • exit criteria (both for a successful exit and a failure contingency exit)

Regardless, criticizing the U.S. going into the war in the first place is not letting the current government of Iran win. Hell, insisting that the U.S. exit the war is not letting the government of Iran win. Their country took a lot of damage, and it will take years to rebuild. At best, it would be a draw.

Try tuning out the constant blather of misinformation, distraction, and entertainment that's streaming from the current US administration. Yes, I know it's hard to do. The stuff is designed to hack into your brain and drain your IQ. Ignore that stuff and pay attention to what's actually happening. This thing is being executed by the military planners, not the elected hacks.

On orders from the elected hacks, with justification from the elected hacks, and exit criteria specified by the elected hacks, assuming it has been specified at all.

Sometime in the next 10 years, China is seriously considering throwing down with the US. They want to be top dog and we're not ready to give up the top spot yet. When they do, Russia and Iran will definitely be on their side. If they can.

Unclear. What is clear is that if China decides to go to war with the world, their economic output will go away, so they have a lot to lose by doing so. Russia and Iran have every excuse to be abusive neighbors, because they have nothing to lose, and this is the fault of decades of failed foreign policy by the United States.

We're making sure that they can't.

The U.S. is going after Russia? Seems like this war is creating a huge surplus of oil revenue for Russia, now that the entire Middle East is cut off from the rest of the world. It is making Iran weaker and Russia stronger. At best, it's a draw, but more likely, it's a huge mistake.

One would hope that the U.S. is going after Iran's drone factories, which does hurt Russia a little bit, particularly in their war against Ukraine, but given that this is likely to basically erase all of the consequences of Russia starting that war with Ukraine, not to mention massively damaging the relationship between the U.S. and its NATO allies, effectively making Russia *massively* more powerful on the world stage than it was before this disastrously incompetent war began, it's hard to see this war as having any meaningful upside.

This has nothing to do with Israel.

Nobody ever thought it did.

You think that the world is suffering right now? Imagine having to deal with all the current sh&t, but simultaneously dealing with China invading Taiwan and Uncle Sam trying to prevent it. Missiles flying everywhere. Oil and gas shut down. Half the worlds shipping offline. TSMC chip manufacturing permanently and totally offline. God only knows what else. Better to deal with those two things in serial rather than in parallel.

Not going to happen. TSMC is building factories in other parts of the world. Lots of manufacturing happens in other parts of the world. If China invades Taiwan, TSMC will go scorched earth. The factories will be leveled, the machinery destroyed, and the world will go on. China gains nothing from that strategy other than control over a small amount of land that has basicallyl bombed itself back to agrarian levels of modernity.

Weirdly, I'm less worried about Russia. Those crazy Russians are voluntarily setting themselves back by at least 50 years. They burned a million men to take a postage stamp sized piece of Ukraine and their economy and demographics are utterly boned. Their nukes will prevent people from invading them, but that's about the limit of their utility.

For now. See above, though. They're going to make out like bandits because of this war with Iran. Instead of the U.S. helping Russia rebuild after a defeat, the U.S. is letting Russia basically win and keep the spoils. This is quite problematic at multiple levels, at least in the medium to long term.

Russia is sidelining itself. We're currently sidelining Iran. If Emperor Xi ever seriously considers invading Taiwan, he'll realize that he has zero powerful allies left. And, maybe he will think twice and decide that maybe a hot war isn't the way to go.

Would be nice if it worked that way, but I think it is way more likely that Russia, enriched by all this oil revenue, will buy Chinese-made weapons and use them to make the lives of everyone around them miserable.

War is absolute hell, and innocents always get caught up in it. But, this one makes sense if you think about it. There's a very strong case that a smaller war now might prevent a catastrophically huge one in 5 years.

Sure, but only if it is planned competently. When you're bombing girls' schools and music schools and running out of actual military targets, while not planning ahead with enough air cover to prevent Iran's ships from planing mines in the Strait of Hormuz, you've taken what could have been a catastrophe in 5 years and turned it into a different catastrophe right now.

From my perspective, this is the most botched U.S. military action since Vietnam, planning-wise, and the only thing preventing it from turning into another Vietnam is the lack of troops on the ground. Start sending in ground troops as is currently rumored, and the outcome could be grim.

Comment Re:I would love to be in that hearing (Score 2) 25

"So, you think critical infrastructure shouldn't be repaired!?"

They know that critical infrastructure *must* be repaired, and want exclusivity over those repairs so that they can profit unreasonably. As you said they're going to make frivolous claims that you might buy counterfeit parts made by some fake parts manufacturer in China or whatever.

The problem with any argument they come up with is that most repairs don't involve motherboards or other components that could realistically have compromised firmware, but rather power supplies, RAM, and storage. (And yeah, storage could have firmware, but probably not firmware that could plausibly result in any sort of remote compromise or anything similarly interesting.)

So there's no plausible rational reason for this weakening of the original law, beyond "IBM and Cisco paid a lot of money to lawmakers so that they could continue to get their mandatory handouts."

The way I see it, this is literally a bill whose sole possible outcome is increasing the cost of providing Internet service to the people of Colorado. If you vote for this bill, you're voting to raise everyone's Internet service costs, with no actual proven benefit.

This bill is trash, and anyone who votes for it should be voted out. It's that simple. Vote accordingly.

Comment Re:Logistics matter (Score 1) 56

Unless the companies are completely incompetent, they aren't having the processors manufactured until they have a plan for bringing the building online, including power delivery.

Not from what I can see. NVidia is getting tons of orders for processors. Also the RAM shortage is because AI datacenters are buying all available memory and convincing the RAM foundries to make as much high bandwidth AI server memory as possible.

Yeah, but that doesn't mean they're ordering so far ahead that they don't have electrical connection approval for the building. Approval for connecting to the grid should happen before they even break ground for the building, after whcih it takes anywhere from one to three years *after* they break ground before the data center opens.

It can take a year or more just to get the high-kVA transformers for the building, which are often built on demand when ordered, not built and warehoused ahead of time. And it can take months to years for the power company to run new high tension lines to the site, depending on power availability. And so on. All that stuff has to be nailed down before you break ground, or else you might end up with a building that you can never light up. They wouldn't just be risking the hardware going out of date. They'd be risking dumping millions into a useless building that nobody wants.

So the only way power connections should be a problem is if they are so clueless about the way the world works that they don't get a will-serve letter from the power capacity with the projected capacity needs before brekaing ground. I wouldn't even be willing to risk building a *house* without a will-serve letter, much less a multi-million-dollar data center.

If they're even slightly competent, they'll have a hard date for when the power company can get power to the site, and that will happen in parallel with the permitting process, so that by the time the permits are available, they have a power guarantee. If they don't have that power guarantee by the time the permit process is finished, they should hold construction until they have it. And their construction plan should include dates for when building transformers have to be ordered to get them there by the time they're ready to light up the building. And so on.

I'm not saying there aren't incompetent fly-by-night companies that try to build data centers without any clue how to do it and end up getting burned, but I would hope that these are the exception, rather than the rule. If you're spending that kind of money, I'd expect you to have your ducks in a row.

When the bubble bursts, will these companies be left with orders no one wants.

Assuming the bubble bursts, then probably. Actually, that will probably happen no matter what, because when technology makes a big leap, there will still be outstanding orders for old tech, many of which will be too late to cancel.

Everything else in the data center is pretty much the same no matter what hardware you put in the racks. You still need floors, walls, and a ceiling or roof. You still need places for cables to go between racks (either above or below). The floors still need to be built to handle high static weight loads where the racks are. You still need power infrastructure. You still need cooling infrastructure. And so on.

Again, some data centers are being built without plans for cooling, power, etc. It is as if they just expect the surrounding area just to build all of that for them.

How do you build a data center without plans for cooling or power? The surrounding area won't ever build chillers for you, and you have to allocate ground space for the infrastructure for all of that stuff. What it sounds like you're talking about are idiots who think they know how to build a data center, using other people's money, and getting burned. It's 1990s startup culture all over again. And I really don't care about them. They'll all probably go under anyway, because they don't have a viable plan to execute.

I highly doubt this represents a large percentage of data center construction. You'd pretty much have to have never tried to build a data center before and never worked in a data center and never even taken a tour of a data center to make those sorts of rookie mistakes.

Comment Re:Logistics matter (Score 1) 56

Something else that has been brought up is that with delays, the hardware in these datacenters might be obsolete by the time they are built. Previous datacenters like Google ones were built with hardware that was not the cutting edge but were stable and reliable. AI always needs the latest and greatest processors. However, by the time the datacenter is fully built, those processors are no longer the latest and greatest.

Unless the companies are completely incompetent, they aren't having the processors manufactured until they have a plan for bringing the building online, including power delivery.

Everything else in the data center is pretty much the same no matter what hardware you put in the racks. You still need floors, walls, and a ceiling or roof. You still need places for cables to go between racks (either above or below). The floors still need to be built to handle high static weight loads where the racks are. You still need power infrastructure. You still need cooling infrastructure. And so on.

Comment Re:Why no such action during the Biden era? (Score 1) 74

Such duplicity. Why didn't they do this (or if they did, why didn't the media trumpet it like they are now?) back in the deep dark days of 2022? Gas was more expensive then, than right now.

Anything to throw mud at the politicians they don't like, and you people play right into it.

I'm so tired of the manipulation.

Because gas prices were elevated due to a fucking pandemic, you moron. This shit is permanent, hence the surcharge.

Gas prices collapsed because of the pandemic. Diesel prices increased because more people were buying things from Amazon and similar instead of from their local stores. Also, they couldn't do it then in part because they were enjoying all the extra revenue from people buying more online, and they wouldn't have wanted to risk disrupting that by increasing the fees.

But otherwise, yeah.

Comment Re:Call it what it is (Score 1) 74

>"A Trump surcharge. Gasoline is now averaging $4 a gallon thanks to his and Israelâ(TM)s war."

Yeah, it is almost approaching the Biden surcharge for gas... Jan 2021 average $2.39, June 2023 over $5. Hopefully it will drop a lot soon. Time will tell.

https://ycharts.com/indicators...

Okay, allow me to educate you for a moment. There are two things that affect the price of gas: supply and demand.

Supply is affected by wars, mostly, and to a very limited extent by laws regarding where you can drill.

Demand is affected by the economy.

President Trump left office with one of the worst economies in decades, mostly because of COVID and our government's botched response to it:

  • Lockdowns were put in place too late and released too early.
  • Restaurant exceptions were disastrous.
  • Part of our government ignorantly told people to not take any precautions at all.
  • We ignorantly locked down only travel from China, completely ignoring that diseases tend to escape borders, and causing the travel bans to get tied up in court and be shouted down as racism.
  • We ignorantly did not use that travel ban period to create proper isolation facilities near airports, buy buses and bunny suits for the drivers, and ensure that we could safely reopen the borders.
  • We ignorantly put a whole lot of people on ventilators who did not actually need to be, driven in part by hospitals seeing a payday from insurance, and in part by genuine ignorance about how long a blood draw is valid for blood oxygen content purposes.

All of these things made COVID objectively worse. But the global zero-inventory supply chain disruptions triggered by COVID would likely have been crippling to the economy no matter what. So I blame our former president for maybe 30 to 40 percent of the problems, and the rest was probably unavoidable, given decades of offshoring manufacturing, decades of zero-inventory supply chains not failing catastrophically often enough to serve as a good cautionary tale, etc.

So yes, when that downturn ended and people weren't so scared of not having jobs, travel increased, and gas prices bounced back to normal. Biden didn't cause that. The economy recovered. I mean, if you wanted Biden to cause an economic catastrophe to keep gas prices down, I suppose he could have done so, but it wouldn't be a good idea. :-)

The other cause of gas price increases is supply. Biden didn't really do much to affect supply. Maybe preventing the Keystone XL pipeline expansion negligibly increased the cost of delivering some future fuel by requiring it to be trucked to the top of the pipeline, but that's noise. Reinstating existing bans on drilling in environmentally sensitive areas also doesn't really affect oil availability much now, because that affects supply that might be available in a decade, not what's available today.

But getting into a war with Iran and causing Iran to mine the Strait of Hormuz, effectively isolating the entire world from almost all actively producing sources of oil other than the United States and Russia? Yeah, that reduces supply immediately and catastrophically, which increases prices.

Comment Re:Solutions.. (Score 1) 46

1a. (prohibit insurance) Probably would not pass constitutional examination. That disproportioned affecting the lives of honest people compared to the objectives. The insurance fraud rate is small (3.5% 171 identified cases out of 4782 hospitalisations according to TFA).

That's not small. But agreed that it is the wrong solution. The right solution is aggressive enforcement. Require everyone who is transported to a hospital to describe, in their own words, the events leading up to it. Immediately prosecute when fraud is detected. Keep doing this until the fraud stops.

Comment Re:They were expecting what exactly? (Score 2) 106

Did you predict "the most statistically anomalous extreme heat events ever observed in the American south-west" ?

Somehow I doubt it.

Everyone expected it — not necessarily in the American southwest, but at multiple somewheres in the world (without guarantees about which specific locations). Droughts and heat events are literally what climate scientists have been warning about for as long as I can remember hearing about global warming. And it always stood to reason that the most at-risk areas were places where rainfall is barely adequate to meet demand (e.g. the American southwest). So if you were going to make a prediction, that area would have been most people's top pick.

And maybe it is the most statistically anomalous heat, but this isn't the first snow pack anomaly in recent memory, nor is it the worst, at least for California's Sierra Nevada snowpack. It's reportedly the second-worst. I'm pretty sure that 2015 was the worst (not positive, but pretty sure).

In short, we already knew that this could happen in that location because of climate change, and that it could impact snowpack in ways that could compromise our water availability. Anybody who didn't realize this has either not lived in this part of the country very long or doesn't watch the news.

Comment Re: Why can't the pre-compiled ones be distributed (Score 1) 60

Yes, this. There are many *many* combinations. Distributed compilation and a remotely hosted shader cache would cost a lot of money to host. I don't think it's the technical considerations that are as preventative as simply the cost of hosting the service.

What is the power consumption for doing this tens of millions of times, and how does the greenhouse gas emissions from that compare with the power consumption of running the servers? It seems like there are a lot of hidden costs in the current approach.

Comment Re:Retaliatory tariffs? (Score 2) 55

Headline to read "United States Massively Raises Tariffs, Shocked When World Refuses To Not Tax U.S. Digital Exports".

Some things are entirely predictable.

The entire justification for America to raise import tariffs, is because American exports have been taxed and tarriffied to death over the last two decades by every other country profiting off it.

That justification is pure, unmitigated bulls**t. The average EU tariff on importing U.S. goods prior to last year was 1.35%. The average U.S. tariff on importing goods from the EU was 1.47%. That means the U.S. charged higher tariffs than the EU, not the other way around.

Prove me wrong instead.

Done.

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