Comment Re: What could possibly go right? (Score 1) 96
The estimated cost is $21B, but as most of that is upfront the real cost is interest. The LCOE you see most often is $149/MWh, which is calculated at an interest rate of 4%. 4% is the 10 year government bond rate - the "can't fail" rate. It can only get the because it is government guaranteed, so it's a subsidised rate. Energy utilities using established technologies with a well understood risk profile and a "no risk" government contract usually get around 8%, which translates to a LCOE of around $200/MWh. If you think the initial delivery of a first of a kind technology has a higher risk profile then it warrants a higher interest - then the typical business rate of 10% might be applicable, which translates to $240/MWH.
None of those can compete with renewables, which usually come in under $100MWh. It only works if they can mass produce them, and they achieve their predicted 50% cost reductions. If they pull that off, this $20B will seem like one of the smartest investments in the 21st century.