Four-year institutions awarded 2 million bachelor's degrees in 2023, up from 1.6 million in 2010
This data is more than 2 years old. While it tells us about the past, the sentiment that is measured is a better indicator of the future. After all, home sales were pretty strong right before the crash of 2008. Showing the recent popularity of a good or service doesn't disprove the existence of a bubble.
and the fraction of 25-year-olds holding a bachelor's degree has steadily increased for the past 15 years
They claim it's "steady", but there's definitely some subjectivity to that term and they don't provide yearly numbers to allow the reader to make his or her own determination.
Even after accounting for student-debt payments, college graduates net about $8,000 more annually than those without degrees.
The yearly difference doesn't tell the entire story. If the current cost of loans takes more years to be paid back than historically, then the ratio of additional salary over the course of your career versus the total cost of the degree can be significantly reduced. This reminds me of car dealers framing everything in terms of monthly payments instead of total cost of ownership.
Part of the disconnect may stem from misunderstanding how college pricing works. Nearly half of U.S. adults believe everyone pays the same tuition, though fewer than 20% of families actually pay the published sticker price.
The effects of compound interest on the loans contribute far more to the total cost of college than the difference in perception of the base rate. Of course, the two are not independent of each other.
The simple fact is that colleges have become perceived as greedy diploma mills and they haven't done a single thing to change that perception because they took it for granted that society would keep pushing for college education for everyone, regardless of how much they raised tuition. Getting an extra $8,000 per year for having a degree is not chump change, but that number could decline before you graduate in four years. Besides, the number to really look at is the break-even age for salaries of the average person with and without a college degree while factoring in student loan payments. I saw an article over ten years ago that compared that number using a truck driver as an example and the break-even age was in the low forties back then. I can only imagine with the large increases in tuition and the compound interest on top of that, it could be approaching the age of 50 at this point.