Comment Re:Watershed moment will be deployment. (Score 1) 63
We may eventually get some SMRs. But this will take a long time, i.e. 50 years or more. The material sciences are just not there. The experience is not there and nuclear power operates unter massively different conditions that most industrial installations. And the uranium supply is surprisingly limited if you need to be economically viable. That may eventually change, but whether it will ever be able to catch up to renewables commercially is really unclear. The problem is that nuclear power is a commercially completely failed industry and old and stagnant now (no easy wins to be had), while renewables and storage are continuing to get refined and better.
The one thing that may work out in the next 10 or 20 years is the THTR. The Chinese are currently trying a refined version based on the German patents. (The Germans wrecked 3 expensive prototypes and then called it quits...) If the Chinese can make it work, and so far it seems they may be able to, they may eventually be able to bring the cost down to a level where it becomes somewhat competitive. And that thing burns Thorium and cannot actually melt down or blow up. It also produces far less of a problem regarding spend fuel.
Note that the other Thorium reactor China is experimenting with is a molten salt reactor. That one has far less of a chance of being a success as the technology is even less well understood. The THTR-300 in Germany was killed by mechanical problems with feeding the fuel balls, not by nuclear or chemical problems. Molten salt reactor face all of these.