the evidence suggests that the Peltzman effect partially offsets the benefits of some ADAS systems, but nowhere near enough to cancel them out entirely. The strongest evidence points towards a modest reduction in net benefit, with the size of the offset varying enormously by the type of ADAS involved.
For several major ADAS features, there is strong evidence of substantial net safety benefits, not least from insurers’ claims data, which find reductions in crashes of around 10–50% depending on the system. If risk compensation were fully cancelling benefits, these reductions would not appear in real-world claims data.
Maybe it will be more of an issue with more advanced systems eg levels of autonomy. But maybe not, because a large fraction of active human errors will be eliminated. The issue is that while the number of errors removed by automation is very large, and the number of new errors introduced is much smaller, the introduced errors may be disproportionately severe and attract considerable attention because they are novel and often surprising. But the empirical equation that matters is Net risk = Human errors removed - Automation-induced errors added, with all errors weighted for severity.