This is all about leverage.

You don't wait until your one and only supplier of land decides you need to tithe 50% of your earnings for the privilege of setting up your business before you diversify.

Look at the Strait of Hormuz. The countries with the backup plan (rail built years ago) have an option other than dealing with Iran. The ones that don't suddenly have a problem - a big one.

Datacenters can indeed be built more cheaply on earth... for now. In the event that changes... you want to already have your alternatives tested and ready to be scaled up. Maybe this will all turn out to be just a waste of money that historians will later chalk up to ego.

To put it another way... if you wanted to test an untried technology and attempt to scale it up, would you rather do it while people are throwing buckets of money at you, or would you rather do it when your cash flow is under threat and investors are getting cold feet?

I credit most of SpaceX's success to CEO Gwen Shotwell. She keeps things going even when Musk is off on an irrelevant tear somewhere else.

Unfortunately, Musk seems to be on a path to sabotaging her efforts. The SpaceX prospectus showed that xAI (which bought Twitter, because why not?) was the reason they posted a loss in the last fiscal year. Even with all the expenditures on Starship, SpaceX would have been profitable. Like every other major AI company, it is not at all clear that xAI can reach profitability anytime in the near future, especially since xAI is blocked from so many enterprises and doesn't seem to be able to keep up with the big three at all. As Starship production scales up, the costs are going to increase, and they need payload revenue to offset those costs. There's so much focus now on the Pez dispenser and the lunar mission that I haven't seen any hints of the conventional payload delivery version (aka, "Chomper") in a couple of years. Maybe it's being quietly worked on. I hope so, because the big space station payloads that were talked about a few years ago will need it.

It seems like it should be just theming, but there's a separate architecture to it. Even the APIs are different, with new using a GraphQL-based API and old using a more traditional structure. The core data (users, posts, comments, etc.) is the same, but the pathways are completely different. New has links into capabilities that old doesn't have (especially around abuse and scraping), and old has capabilities that new doesn't always have (especially around mod tools, which new apparently breaks on a regular basis).

"Many users" is going to be relative. I saw some numbers recently that only around 1% of users go through Old Reddit, and in many of the largest subs, it's a fraction of a percent. I don't think it will have the impact that some people think. I prefer Old Reddit on desktop, but it's clunky on mobile, so I stick with the new interface (I don't use the app).

For global energy, that typically includes transportation. As more economies have expanded, there has been more use of cars, trucks, trains, ships, and aircraft, almost all of which are powered by fossil fuels.

Global electricity generation has changed. In 2000, 64.1% of global electricity came from fossil fuels, 16.7% came from nuclear, and 18.7% came from renewable. In 2023, despite overall electricity generation roughly doubling, fossil fuel generation was down to 60.1%, nuclear was down to 9.1%, and renewables were up to 30.23%. Looking at the renewable mixes, in 2000, it was 17.4% hydropower, 0.7% biofuels, 0.2% wind, 0.01% solar, and 0.3% geothermal. In 2023, it was 14.6% hydropower, 2.2% biofuels, 7.75% wind, 5.4% solar, and 0.3% geothermal.

That's still a lot of fossil fuel electricity generation, but it is declining by percentage and their growth curves are flattening. Renewables are up by quite a bit and still growing. Nuclear is declining, and isn't likely to recover in any meaningful numbers. This program is a lot like past programs meant to encourage new nuclear power plants. Odds are that maybe one will get started, and it might not get finished.

There's also this lawsuit:

https://www.syracuse.com/micro...

"A national advocacy group and some Central New York residents filed an 11th-hour lawsuit today seeking to block Micron Technologyâ(TM)s development of chip fabs in the town of Clay, arguing that the environmental review of the massive project was inadequate.

The lawsuit was filed the same day that state and federal officials joined Micron leaders for a long-awaited ground-breaking at the site.

The litigation was filed in state Supreme Court in Albany by Jobs to Move America, a national nonprofit, and Neighbors for a Better Micron, an informal group represented by Clay resident Bonita Siegel.

The lawsuit claims that the Onondaga County Industrial Development Agency failed to adequately consider the environmental impacts of the massive project before approving it in November."

Apparently "Jobs to Move America" is based out of California... so this seems to most closely match the OP's claim that "1 guy and 9 out-of-State activists shut down a planned Micron fab in New York."

However... the fab is still planned for construction, they've just de prioritized it in favor of fabs in Idaho, where presumably there are fewer encumbrances to getting shovels in the ground.

https://www.techpowerup.com/34...

"Micron has announced a significant revision to the schedule for its semiconductor campus near Clay, New York, with initial production now set to begin at the end of 2030. According to company filings and permit documents, the construction timeline for the first manufacturing facility has been extended from three years to four, and regulators have approved this adjusted schedule. Additionally, Micron has amended its $6.1 billion CHIPS Act agreement to reallocate approximately $1.2 billion from the Clay project to expedite expansion in Boise, Idaho, allowing the Idaho site to become operational well before the New York facility. This is part of Micron's strategy to maintain at least 40% of its DRAM manufacturing operations in the U.S.

The revised schedule significantly delays the following phases of the Clay campus and changes the project's long-term outlook. According to the new plan, the second fab is now set to begin in mid-2030 and is expected to be completed around 2034. Similar delays have affected the third and fourth fabs. As a result, the completion of the entire four-fab campus has been pushed from the original target of 2040 to closer to 2045. This delay also affects the introduction of community support initiatives, such as childcare, housing, and transit improvements, which are intended to benefit the campus workforce. Local officials attribute the slowdown primarily to labor shortages and extended construction cycles."

BTW, for those who want to know, the lawsuit was settled:

https://cnycentral.com/news/lo...

"CLAY, N.Y. â" The Onondaga County Industrial Development Agency on Thursday approved a settlement to pay Azalia King of Clay nearly $3 million to move out of her Caughdenoy Road home.

King's home is on land that tech giant Micron will need for its chip fabrication plant in the Town of Clay and so is a 6-acre parcel of land she owns across the street.

"There was no circumstance that we could have Mrs. King on that property and have Micron built around her," explained County Executive Ryan McMahon. He said the deal with King needed to get done, or the project could've been at risk."

Is this what you're referring to?

https://www.wired.com/story/mi...

"Micron Megafab Project Faces a New Hurdle as Activists Seek a Benefits Deal
Activists are demanding a way to hold the memory-chip maker accountable to its promises to protect the environment and embrace communities of color in central New York."

Or this?

https://www.wired.com/story/mi...

"Legal Battle

Across the US, governments reserve the power of eminent domain to seize real estate and redeploy it for a greater purpose in exchange for fair compensation to owners. Comprehensive data on how often it is used is lacking, but King has been a target more than perhaps most Americans.

Around 1965, Onondaga County used the threat of seizure to force King and her husband, Glenn, out of their farm to make way for a power station, according to court papers. Thatâ(TM)s how King ended up at her current residence on Caughdenoy Road, along the western border of Micronâ(TM)s project.

During the dotcom boom, the couple faced seven years of additional county pressure to sell their land to allow for a semiconductor fab, court papers show. In 2005, they relented. The Kings sold their 47-acre property to the county in exchange for $330,750 and a license to live tax-free on 3.61 acres of the land until both of them were dead. The envisioned fab never materialized. Kingâ(TM)s husband died in 2015.

Micron announced its New York project in October 2022, a megafab that would surpass the much-touted TSMC chip complex in Arizona. Current plans call for the first chips to ship in late 2030, about two years behind schedule. Displacing King has been a prerequisite. Her land is set to house parking garages and rain basins, project documents show.

In recent months, Onondaga County turned to state eviction and eminent domain laws to try to kick King out of her house no later than mid-January, under the threat of fines. Last Monday, King sued the county development agency in state court, contending that any forced move would upend her life and violate her lifetime contract.

King âoemerely wishes to live out her remaining years in her home, a place where she feels safe, comfortable and can have her family visit,â the lawsuit states, noting she has three dozen grandchildren or great-grandchildren. âoeDefendant is attempting to back out of the agreement ⦠simply because plaintiff has lived longer than defendant anticipated ⦠and the agreement has become inconvenient.â"

Neither of these stories indicates that the fab is dead... just delayed.

Who says they're not expanding?

https://www.benzinga.com/tradi...

"Micron expects fiscal fourth-quarter capital expenditures of around $10 billion, bringing total fiscal 2026 capital spending to approximately $27 billion. The investment pace isnâ(TM)t expected to slow anytime soon.

Chief Financial Officer Mark Murphy said the company expects quarterly capital expenditures in fiscal 2027 to exceed fiscal fourth-quarter levels as Micron accelerates construction of new clean-room capacity to meet long-term AI demand.

âoeWe expect quarterly CAPEX in fiscal 2027 to be above fiscal Q4 levels,â Murphy said, adding that more than half of the increase next year will come from construction spending as the company expands manufacturing capacity.

The investments include leading-edge DRAM fabs in Idaho and New York, continued expansion in Taiwan and Singapore, and additional advanced packaging capacity aimed at supporting next-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM) products that power AI servers."

https://www.trendforce.com/new...

"[News] SK hynix Advances DRAM and NAND Roadmap, Targets 3x Wafer Output by 2034, 375-Layer NAND at Year-End

Nikkei reports that SK hynix is building four semiconductor fabs in Yongin, with the first facility expected to begin operations in early 2027. The original schedule had stretched to 2045, but the timeline has been pulled forward by roughly a decade, according to the report. Chairman Chey Tae-won added that demand is rising so rapidly that even the accelerated expansion may still fall short.

As previously reported by The Elec, SK hynix is targeting a significant ramp in DRAM output, lifting monthly wafer capacity from around 550,000 wafers today to roughly 1 million wafers by 2030. Much of the expansion is centered on the Yongin Semiconductor Cluster, where the first fab alone is expected to add about 360,000 wafers per month of DRAM capacity in the first half of 2030, according to the report."

https://www.datacenterdynamics...

"Memory chipmakers Samsung and SK Hynix are reportedly scaling up production of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) in order to meet growing demand from AI customers.

According to Korean news outlets, Samsung is looking to expand its production capacity by around 50 percent in 2026, while SK Hynix has announced plans to increase its investment in infrastructure by more than four times the figure previously announced.
Server memory
â" Thinkstock / NorGal

Both companies are currently constructing new fabs in South Korea to support these ambitions. Samsungâ(TM)s P5 facility in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi, is expected to be operational by 2028, with SK Hynixâ(TM)s M15X facility slated for utilization by mid-2027."

There's more than enough demand that not expanding production is just leaving tons of money on the table. You may legit be pissed that they're prioritizing HBM over DDR5 or DDR6, but money talks, and that's where the demand is.

We're not facing an OPEC situation... at least not with the manufacturers. Maybe with the distributors and the speculators who bought up all the ram and are ransoming it back to us a piece at a time at nosebleed prices?

I mean... this is just like farmers selling some of their yet to be harvested crop on the futures markets.

Sure, they could hold out for more, but something unexpected like a drought or a storm that damages their crops (or a war that shuts down the Hormuz strait) could happen.

In other words... it's risk management. Just like Southwest did for years with fuel hedging. They paid more up front to lock in prices for longer, and it paid off when oil spiked.

The customers want to guarantee a minimum supply even if prices go higher and are willing to lock in contracts to guarantee it. Micron gets money even if something unexpected happens (for example, China bans import of HBM to prop up their own domestic ram manufacturers, or the current administration bans sales of HBM to Chinese companies.)

I wouldn't read anything into this other than Micron's management seems to be acting rationally.

"which generates electricity without carbon emissions"

Ehh... Until they do resource extraction for uranium without fossil fuels, that's not quite true.

Still better than coal and natural gas fired plants, although all three generation types still require steam turbines.

Speaking of open vs. closed loop systems... how much water does a power plant (nuclear, coal, or otherwise) consume vs. a data center, during normal operation?

Construction isn't expected to start until 2030 at the earliest. From TFA:

By that time, the AI bubble may have burst, or the grid may have gone even further into renewables, or both.

We need more power, but nuclear isn't the way anymore. I was a supporter of nuclear until around 2020, when I saw how fast solar and wind were gaining. Both have consistently shown enormous growth because they are not as specific in their land requirements, can be installed in small numbers, and the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for them has plummeted to become profitable even without subsidies. Storage is still a challenge, but we're seeing rapid improvements in that, too, with sodium batteries rapidly catching up in capacity.

TFA says that construction on these won't start until at least 2030, and if they make that, it would be amazingly fast for how reactors are built these days. In that time, wind is expected to expand by almost 50 GW and solar by 40 GW. Battery storage is expected to almost quadruple in that time. By the time the reactors are built, they will be a tiny fraction of the new power generation installed and they will probably be the most expensive part of it.

I listened to a radio interview with Bernie... apparently he wants this so that "citizens can block harmful policies". So that probably explains the 50% - they want voting shares in order to control the boards.

This is a bit more than just taking a stake in companies in order to give taxpayers an opportunity to share in the gains... this is basically nationalization without taking over the entire company.

So I guess I was wrong about where this was coming from. Too bad, since if the tech bros are right and this leads to the ultimate infinite money glitch, having a resource wealth fund that pays dividends would have been one way of softening the massive dislocation in labor allocation for both white and blue collar work.

Correct. Presumably if your investors don't like the idea of getting diluted by uncle sam, they'll cut off sales once you hit 199M a year.

You'd need to get tangible benefits for letting the government "buy in"... enough that your existing investors and share holding employees would be ok with crossing the 200M cutoff.

Probably a foreign held corporation in Ireland that owns all the IP and gets paid licensing revenue from all the sub 200M companies will serve as the controlling entity.

What's odd is you could accomplish something similar to Bernie's plan by funding AI startups and taking an equity stake. Upon IPO, you sell the stake and then take the money to go incubate more companies. The leftists complain about the massive imbalance of wealth, but are unwilling to go and take the risk that the VC funds are taking by backing a bunch of unproven companies that may never pay off.