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Comment DEI is to blame (Score 2, Insightful) 141

They told someone who was not qualified that he could lie, cheat, and plagiarize his way to the top as long as he had enough melanin. When it became politically inconvenient, they through him out on his ear and acted shocked. DEI is the opposite of equality - it is racist and oppressive and contrary to reason.

Comment Re: Is this fine, really? (Score 1) 76

I think you misunderstood the video, which is common since there is a lot of complex math involved. What the video actually says is that we're getting diminishing returns and those returns are diminishing exponentially / returns are improving at lower rates. In addition, we are bound by the math behind LLMs to always have a certain percentage of hallucinations. These aren't abstract problems that you can solve simply by throwing more hardware at it. These are baked-in existential problems related to the nature of LLMs and the entire AI superset. The idea that we're just going to get faster, cheaper, better LLMs is not happening. In fact, the opposite is happening - LLMs are getting more expensive quickly and aren't solving the core problems that they need to in order to be a multi-trillion new category of business.

Comment Why not a ban? (Score 2) 60

If these drones are a security risk, what's the point in a large tariff when an outright import ban would make more sense. A 'large' drone that could be used as a weapon (if, say, it was taken over by China during operation over a power plan etc) sounds less like 'we should make these less prevalent' and more like 'we should not import them'.

Comment Re: Is this fine, really? (Score 1) 76

More references if you need direct sources. These are on the youtube video but it's good to have them here as well:

REFERENCES
A Neural Scaling Law from the Dimension of the Data Manifold: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.108...
First 2020 OpenAI Scaling Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.083...
GPT-3 Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.141...
Second 202 OpenAI Scaling Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2010.147...
Google Deepmind “Chinchilla Scaling” Paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.155...
Nice summary of Chinchilla Scaling: https://www.lesswrong.com/post......
GPT-4 Technical Report: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.087...
Nice Neural Scaling Laws Summary: https://www.lesswrong.com/post......
Explaining Neural Scaling Laws: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.067...
High Cost of Training GPT-4: https://www.wired.com/story/op......
Nvidia V100 FLOPs: https://lambdalabs.com/blog/de......
Nvidia V100 Original Price: [https://www.microway.com/hpc-tech-tip... GPU model,Key Points](https://www.microway.com/hpc-tech-tip...)
Great paper on scaling up training infrastructure: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2104.044...
Eight Things to Know about LLMs: https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.006...
Emergent Properties of LLMs: https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.076...
Theoretical Motivation for Cross Entropy (Section 6.2): https://www.deeplearningbook.o...

Some papers that appear to pass the compute efficient frontier
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2206.144...
https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.113...

Comment Re: Is this fine, really? (Score 1) 76

Sorry, I should have claified: Ed Zitron and Michael Burry have both referenced studies by AI researchers showing that we have discovered certain scaling laws. Here's a primer video to get you started: https://www.youtube.com/watch?...

So short version: computer science experts say it, and it fits with the financial problems we are seeing. OpenAI and Anthropic know this is an existential problem yet are silent about it.

Comment Re: Is this fine, really? (Score 3, Interesting) 76

Two great sources to get you started:

Michael Burry, the guy from The Big Short who foresaw the housing crisis of 2008. This guy know his numbers: https://michaeljburry.substack...

Ed Zitron, investigative journalist. He's been cataloging the AI bubble for a few years now, demonstrating that AI is not profitable and not AGI: https://www.wheresyoured.at/

These guys are in-depth, detailed, and thorough. You'll have to put a few hours into reading them to really understand all the details, but you can get a pretty good AI summary quickly, ironically enough. They both say essentially the same thing: LLMs might be a useful $1000B SaaS vertical, but they are not a $5 Trillion replacement for human labor - and we're investing capex like they are the latter. This is a bad thing.

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