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Comment Re:Followed by: (Score 1) 437

You need many decades and perhaps centuries of that data to make the determination you want to make. Extreme weather events are part of the weather pattern. What you have to show is that the distribution of weather events has shifted to the more frequent or more strong. And because we have to reject the null hypothesis (chance) with enough certainty, we need a long time of observing.

Comment Re: And... Then there's actual science (Score 1) 437

But that is precisely the point. Extreme weather events are a part of the normal (no pun intended) distribution. So extreme weather events are ambiguous information. You need many decades of data to determine if the distribution is shifted or flattened with a confidence level required.

Comment Re:Followed by: (Score 3, Insightful) 437

The system is far too complex for you to be making almost every claim in your comment. You can do a small physics experiment to prove that CO2 increases are causing all of the ocean temp increases? No, you cannot. There could be a feedback system that 100% counteracts that effect or even 175% counteracts that effect and some completely different interaction is responsible for the net increase of ocean temps. And then higher ocean temps will cause more storms? Maybe, maybe not.

If everyone who patted themselves on the back for being "pro-science" would take a couple months and read some philosophy books on science and its methods, I feel like we would end up with far more productive conversations and better research investment and policy decisions. Science isn't s out memorizing facts of what "we know" according to "consensus of scientists". Science is the opposite of relying on what authority figures say is true. That's called religion. It's important for consumers of science to understand what is knowable and how powerful (or not) certain statistical and scientific methods are. The single biggest problem we have in science today is overstating findings that simply are not supportable by the evidence. Scientists included, too -- see: replication crisis, endless reversals in nutrition science, etc

Comment Re:Followed by: (Score 3, Insightful) 437

> The number of major floods and the intensity of those floods is increasing, and the most likely agent is AGW", well that's a statement of probability.

Except it's not. Floods are steady and the damage as a % of GDP has fallen 75% since 1950.

Truth is you need a much longer time scale before you have enough power to see an effect of climate change in the statistics.

Comment Re:Followed by: (Score 1) 437

Actually I think you got it wrong too. Saying climate change most likely increased the amount of rain is actually a causal conclusion that is not supportable. It's an opinion. The more accurate way to say it is that the amount of rain is consistent with what one might expect given the effects of climate change.

But it's actually just as possible that the rain would have been more if not for climate change.

Comment And... Then there's actual science (Score 2) 437

I actually don't thin Bill is saying it's the result of climate change. He is saying it is consistent with what we would expect from climate change. And then I can't tell if Bill or the journoclown is getting it wrong by making the leap that THEREFORE it was the result of climate change. Of course that does not follow logically.

The power of statistics is such that we would need many decades of data before we could theoretically detect that climate change is indeed changing the frequency or intensity of these events. Truth is that things like floods APPEAR to be dropping when measured in meaningful ways.

When people make these statements, they are worse than people who deny science. They are pretending to be scientific when being quite the opposite.

There are sane people out there. They are rare. But they exist. Here is one:

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