Journal leviramsey's Journal: English Premiership Handicapping: 27-28 Aug 2003 10
As some of you may know from last year, I devised an algorithm for strength rating that picks winners in NFL games. Last season, against the spread, with minor tweaks in the offseason, I racked up a record of 125-89-6.
I have made some minor tweaks to fit association football, and am now turning my attention to picking winners in the English Premier League.
As Asian Handicapping is closer to the American Handicapping approach that the algorithm is designed for, I will pick against those types of propositions. While High Street bookmakers might not offer Asian Handicaps, most online books, afaik, do.
You may want to do some googling on asian handicap (it doesn't turn up many pr0n links...) for more information on this style of betting, whose chief appeal is that draws are eliminated.
On with the picks!
[Format is Visitor @ Home: Selection (Handicap), Wager @ Odds]
- 27 August
- Southampton @ Leeds United: Southampton (+0.25), 70 units @ 2.05
- Middlesbrough @ Leicester City: Leicester City (Pick), 100 units @ 1.86
- Bolton @ Portsmouth: Bolton (+0.25), 210 units @ 2.05
- Everton @ Charlton Athletic: NO BET
28 August
- Aston Villa @ Arsenal: Arsenal (-1.5), 60 units @ 1.85
- Wolverhampton @ Manchester United: Man Utd (-2.25), 110 units @ 1.85
- Tottenham Hotspur @ Liverpool: Tottenham Hotspur (+1), 140 units @ 2.05
Odds were believed to be accurate at the time picks were made, but no guarantee of accuracy of either the lines or the picks is made. Use at own risk.
ADDED by leviramsey (28 Aug 2003, 1722 EDT, 2122 UTC): A bit of a bounceback on Wednesday, as a late goal at Highbury converted the Arsenal selection into a winner. Man Utd laying down and only beating Wolverhampton by one was a bit of a letdown, though.
Final record: 3 wins, 1 push, 2 losses. Net gain/(loss): (85 units), (12.3%)
Tomorrow should see my selections for the weekend EPL matches.
How? (Score:2)
Re:How? (Score:2)
What do you mean by "how?" exactly? If it's a handicapping HOWTO, all I can say is that every handicapper has a different approach.
If it's an intro to Asian Handicapping in particular, this may be helpful [betasia.com]
Re:How? (Score:2)
Re:How? (Score:2)
I'll give you a basic outline of the algorithm, which is something I've had, in one form or another for about 5 years or so (IIRC, I developed it early in the 1998 NFL season). It's gotten significantly more elaborate since then.
I am hoping, at some point, to make plays of a sort using this, though, so I will leave some portions out (such as the actual mapping from the results of what I'm going to give you to the actual recommendations).
Re:How? (Score:2)
Then checkout The Bookiejoint http://bookiejoint.org/ [bookiejoint.org] where you can play against the spread and it won't cost you a dime.
tf23
First day results: not encouraging (Score:2)
Looks like I'll need to make some adjustments.
Taking Southampton (+0.25) was a winning proposition, though it only paid 50%.
A push on taking Leicester City (even) didn't hurt.
Unfortunately, taking a dive on Bolton Wanderers was a disaster.
Net for the day: loss of 173 units on 380 wagered.
week 4 predictions? (Score:2)
Re:week 4 predictions? (Score:2)
I'll be catching up on the NFL preseason shortly (probably before the beginning of next week). I'm probably not going to do much until Week 3 rolls around, though.
Re:week 4 predictions? (Score:2)
Re:week 4 predictions? (Score:2)
Yeah, I'm talking regular season, when the games actually mean something. ;o)