Journal leviramsey's Journal: Week 9 Picks 9
I went 8-6 straight-up which is not bad. That's consolation for my third consecutive atrocity in picking against the spread, though, so my joy is tempered. I have learned my lesson about picking against the Steelers...
I will now also officially declare the Patriots playoff hopes on life support. If they do as I predict (lose to Buffalo), they will be 3-5 in a division where only 10-6 teams need apply. Of course the Steelers will likely make the playoffs and get homefield in the first round with only a 9-7 record, and I see either the Colts or Jags winning the South (with a home first round playoff game) with a 7-9 record as a possibility. I take solace in that whoever wins the AFC North and South will not survive the first round; Buffalo, Miami, Denver, and San Diego are all capable of wiping the floor with Pittsburgh/Indy/Jacksonville. I'd be surprised if the NFL makes no changes in the playoff format. Only guaranteeing berths to the top 3 division winners would be a good start.
- Baltimore @ Atlanta: ATL by 8 [I'm unsure that even Ray Lewis could control Michael Vick]
- Cincinnati @ Houston: HOU by 9 [If the Bengals win a game this year, this is it... otherwise 0-16 is a possibility]
- Dallas @ Detroit: DET by 4 [Rookie versus rookie: I'll take Harrington over Hutchinson, thank you very much]
- Minnesota @ Tampa Bay: TB by 11 [Probably a dangerous spread... I think Daunte Culpepper can be counted on to throw a TD pass to Derrick Brooks, though]
- New England @ Buffalo: BUF by 8 [A soap opera by even the exacting standards of the AFC East; will Drew, spurned by Belichick torch the aging Patriots secondary? Will Antowain show Bill[s] the mistake they made letting him go? After a series of disasters, can [the] Pat[s] get back on track (what the fuck is with sportswriters and the word "untracked"?)]
- Philadelphia @ Chicago: PHI by 12 [Hmmm... the Eagles may be the best team in the NFC... the Bears may be the worst. You decide.]
- Pittsburgh @ Cleveland: PIT by 2 [Yes... I picked the Steelers. Browns have been strong though of late]
- Tennessee @ Indianapolis: IND by 4 [Tennessee throws away leads against the Bengals; Indy just can't get anything going. Something has to give. I say Flaming Thumbtacks will do the giving]
- NY Jets @ San Diego: SD by 17 [Jets are listless. Chargers are razor sharp, though this may be where the annual swoon from the Bolts begins...]
- San Francisco @ Oakland: SF by 3 [Raiders are showing their age and have some injury problems]
- St. Louis @ Arizona: ARZ by 4 [Cardinals are tough on D.]
- Washington @ Seattle: WSH by 1 [Matt Hasselbeck? Ha. Ha. Bwahahahahahahahahaha. Where will Mike Holmgren be coaching next year?]
- Jacksonville @ NY Giants: NYG by 4 [Madden actually said something insightful: "The Giants are an average team playing erratically". The Jags are worse]
- Miami @ Green Bay: GB by 8 [No Fiedler, no win for the Marine Mammals]
And the Top 12... now with fewer ties!
- Green Bay [Will Favre retire with another ring?]
- New Orleans [Tough loss against Atlanta, but still playing great football]
- San Diego [Thunderstruck. Just thunderstruck.]
- San Francisco [In control of their division and seem to have found some offense]
- Philadelphia [Yeah they rely on Donovan McNabb. Wouldn't you?]
- Denver [Tough D and more than competent O makes a great combination]
- Tampa Bay [Yeah the offense couldn't score in a whorehouse. Their defense could score in a convent, though.]
- Miami [Injuries hurt.]
- Atlanta [Vick's #7: the prescription for 100+ yards of passing and 100+ yards rushing per game]
- Pittsburgh [Can they win a shootout?]
- Buffalo [Have they found defense?]
- Arizona [Wildcard hopes still very much alive]
Nice line on the Eagles (Score:2, Informative)
Might have to rethink Pitt - I don't know. I'm sure FortKnox is happy, but I am still doubting Maddox.
Oakland, Buffalo, and St. Louis are the games I want to watch. Can't argue with the spreads, although with the way Oakland's been playing recently I could SF putting up a lot more.
OK - fine I can't resist (damnit!) Rams by 5. They're getting their groove back and had the bye week to get the timing down with Bulger (I'm assuming they're playing him - I can't find that info quickly).
Re:Nice line on the Eagles (Score:2)
I got a scare late in that game when the Giants were driving for the TD, especially since that would have meant a push and my deficit on money recommendations would be even deeper.
Maddox is at best an average QB who's in a system well-suited to his strengths (much like Brady last year, or Warner in St. Louis). Do I think the Steelers can win if Maddox throws it 40 times? No. Do I think the Steelers can come from behind? No. If the Steelers get a lead though, they'll hang on. If they score first (especially if they go up 7-0), they'll probably win. But if you can hold 'em in the first quarter and put ten on the board, I don't think the Steelers can win. Put the Steelers against an excellent offense with a competent defense and the Steelers will lose, barring a huge imbalance in special teams. The Steelers will win the division, because nobody fits the template of how you beat the Steelers. Let's say Buffalo comes to town in the playoffs. Excellent offense, and thanks to junking the moronic scheme known as the 46, a passable defense. I'd have to say 14-3 Buffalo after the first quarter. That spells Steeler doom. Miami may be the team to visit Heinz. With Fiedler and healthy WRs, the same thing can be said. Ditto if Denver comes to town. The Steelers might beat the Chargers. If the Raiders are healthy, they'll beat the Steelers. The Chiefs have the ability to turn it into a shootout.
worst team in the NFC? (Score:3, Informative)
Ouch dude. Tell you what. Wait til december and compare that team with the shell that is going on the field this sunday.
Two words: BEAT UP. The bears are crushed by injuries. But worst team in the NFC? Ouch
ummmm..... (Score:1)
lewis could be gone for the season [yahoo.com]
Re:ummmm..... (Score:1)
He already has Atlanta by 8... that's quite a bit
As a Ravens fan, I certainly hope they can pull themselves together...
Projected Final Standings (Score:3, Interesting)
No tiebreakers applied. I went through the schedules, marking which games would be won by which teams.
Miami
Tennessee
Washington
Minnesota (5-11)
In the AFC I see San Diego and whoever wins the tie between Indy, Pittsburgh, Miami, and Buffalo getting first round byes. San Diego will get home field through the playoffs. Top wildcard will be Denver and the second wild card will be Buffalo or Miami. Over in the NFC bracket, the road to San Diego runs through Green Bay and New Orleans gets a bye. San Francisco and Philly will host wild-card games. One of those wild-cards will be Tampa Bay while the Giants, Skins and Cards battle for the last wild card berth.
Re:Projected Final Standings (Score:2)
Do you really see Houston winning as many games between now and the end of the regular season as St Louis?
Personally, I think it's a miracle that David Carr, the Houston QB, hasn't been knocked out of a game yet. Any game now, his offensive line is going to get him killed. His weekly sack totals so far have been 6, 9, 4, 7, 5, 9 and 4. That's 44 sacks in 7 games. And that's discounting the number of times he's been harried, taken late hits, pressured, etc.
He's fumbled the ball 9 times, at least once in every game so far, and turned the ball over on 5 of those occasions. Ouch. Ouch, ouch, ouch.
On the other hand, St Louis should get better. They've rediscovered their running game ("Hey, I wonder what'll happen if we give the ball to Marshall Faulk...") and they'll have Kurt Warner back for the latter part of the season.
In week 9 they visit Arizona (which they should win), in week 10 they're at home to San Diego (a real test), and in week 11 they host Chicago (another likely win). After that, it's a three game road trip to Washington, Philadelphia and Kansas City, which should add another win - maybe two if Warner gets back in time to rip up the woeful Chiefs pass defense.
Finally, it's Arizona and San Francisco at home, with a trip to Seattle sandwiched inbetween. Again, it's had to see them not picking up a win or two there - perhaps three if the 49ers are resting their starters for the season finale. So that's five, maybe seven wins out there. I'd have to say you're thinking might be flawed.
(And, no, I'm not a St Louis fan. Quite the opposite.)
Similarly, Atlanta (4-3) should finish better than 8-8, assuming that Michael Vick can stay healthy. Games against Baltimore, Carolina, Minnesota, Seattle, Detroit and Cleveland all look like wins.
And how you see Philadelphia (5-2) only winning five more games is beyond me. Their two losses were each by a field goal and they have games against Chicago, Indianapolis, Arizona, Seattle, Washington, Dallas and the New York Giants to come. Their other two games are against San Francisco and St Louis, which they could both beat on any given Sunday.
Seven gimmes and a pair of games against teams that aren't exactly firing on all cylinders. Surely you can't think that they'll crash that badly? What do you see, Donovan McNabb with a broken leg?
Lastly, I fail to see how you can credit Cincinnati (0-7) with not one but two wins. If last week's loss to Tennessee proved anything it's this - Cinci couldn't win if you handed the game to them on a plate.
I pity Corey Dillon, I really do. If he was a dog, you'd take him out back and shoot him in the head because it'd be the humane thing to do.
Re:Projected Final Standings (Score:1)
Re:Projected Final Standings (Score:2)
Yeah, I know... i was too lazy to set the ol tags...