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Comment Re:Another part of the story. (Score 3, Insightful) 251

A Republican, Peters was recently pardoned by Trump,
largely symbolic action since she has neither been charged nor convicted in federal court.

Yet another example of how the cry of "states' rights" is hypocritical and selectively applied. Somehow, when the party of "state's rights" controls federal power, states' rights completely disappear. In this case, the constitution and law are completely clear, but the party in power still pushes the counter-constitutional idea because they know that they control the Supreme Court, which apparently has the right to interpret the constitution to be exactly the opposite of what the words say. I guess the Supreme Court also has the right to reinterpret the meaning of "strict constructionism."

Unfortunately, this destruction of the rule of law is exactly why places like China, and more and more so the US, are dangerous places to live.

Comment Re:Just a few years ago (Score 1) 112

It used to be that recruiters/companies would get their hands on a list of Stanford CS 106B students and start offering them jobs (part time, summer, or even full time). Note: That class is laughably basic. I'm talking like "what's a linked list?" type questions on the final exam.

Some years ago, my boss, who had a PhD in EE from Stanford, told me that he didn't have a high opinion of undergrad CS students at Stanford. The grad students were top notch, but he thought less of the undergrads. In a way, it makes sense. The undergrads at Stanford are smart, but they earned their way there based on high school work. The grad students competed at the university level.

Comment Re:What could go wrong? (Score 1) 112

How are juniors supposed to be mentored and gain on the job experience to become the seniors of the future then?

I suppose many companies are thinking that other companies will hire these juniors and that the best of the juniors will be filtered out through those experiences. Sort of like how major league baseball teams think of the farm teams. These companies likely realize that long-term employment, even at the most sought after companies, is becoming more and more rare, so many of the juniors trained at a company will mature and then join a competitor.

Comment Re:Can we just admit LLMs are underwhelming? (Score 2) 34

With each new generation, the cost per prompt goes up and the improvements don't even seem to be all that tangible. LLMs are not going to get us actual AI. Companies spend more and more and deliver the same crappy error-ridden responses. They can claim whatever they like on synthetic "trust me bro" benchmarks, but I've never noticed a difference in day to day from Claude versions. I shudder at the thought of someone using that to write real software. I find it useful from time to time, but it definitely has proven it doesn't know what it's doing...and it gets more expensive with each generation (from an electricity perspective alone)

But "AI" isn't the goal. That's partly because everyone has a different definition of AI but mostly because what consumers and companies care about is use cases and not some vague notion of AI. Consumers want uses cases that help their lives, and companies want profits. AI skeptics point to the apparent lack of accuracy and use cases for chatbots and use that as a proxy for AI failure. However, AI use cases that have already directly impacted people and that have led to corporate profits have already appeared over the last decade preceding ChatGPT, and that's the main reason that companies are willing to spend seemingly insane amounts of money on AI research. These companies also look back at hi-tech history and don't want to view AI as the next online retail story, where early failures were common and Amazon came to dominate the huge market through a lot of perseverance when it didn't seem wise to continue throwing money at something consumers weren't clamoring for and that didn't generate immediate profits.

Comment Re:Was there a shortage? (Score 1, Informative) 79

I don't understand how decreasing import to the USA has increased buying in Europe. Was there a shortage and more was going to the US? Did they reduce prices in Europe? The article says "redirected a tsunami of cheap stuff into Europe", so I don't quite understand how the tariff in the US has increased buying in Europe.

It's not a matter of markets but unilateral moves by the Chinese. The reason is that China's economy is heavily dependent on exports, so they are motivated to find replacement buyers. The Chinese should and actually want to increase domestic consumption, but that's easier said than done. So, the immediate solution is to dump Chinese goods on the rest of the world.

Chinese companies are motivated by a desire for increased corporate performance but also by government pressure. The Chinese government is pushing exports by actively manipulating exchange rates to depreciate the Chinese currency. This is why in the last half year, the Chinese RMB has appreciated slightly against the USD but dropped almost 10% versus the Euro as the Chinese pivoted to dumping goods on Europe instead of the US.

Comment Trading volume? (Score 1) 23

There are about 13.6 million shares floated for this company. The highest trading volume in the last year was about 2000 shares, but most days see less than 100 shares traded. This stock has essentially no real-time market for shares. As such, the price of its last trade should not be taken as a notion of its value or even its capitalization. It's more like a house that is sold once every few decades and find a crazy person who pays an inflated price. That inflated price does not mean that the house is really worth that amount, i.e., that it could be sold again for around that price.

Comment Re:Q:If they have money and think they'll make mon (Score 1) 33

Simply raising money isn't a reason to go public. The reason to go public is fundamental capital flexibility, and allowing investors to flexibly cash in when they want.

You left out the primary motivation. An IPO is a way for the founders to get rich. Since they make the decision to IPO, the desire for the founders to get rich is the single-most important reason to IPO.

Comment Re:Shortage? (Score 1) 204

The risk is it could lead to shortages of critical skills that end up harming Switzerland's competitiveness.

The chance of someone capable of learning critical skills being born in switzerland is the same as anywhere else, if the swiss are not training their own citizens to perform these critical roles then that's already a failure on their part.

While the probability of training sometime in Switzerland to have particular skills is likely equal to those in other developed countries, there are far fewer people in Switzerland, so it's not hard to believe that they would exhaust their supply of skilled workers in certain areas. That's not a knock of Swiss efficiency for training workers but rather an acknowledgement of a relatively small Swiss population.

There are those that might believe that a small country can train all the workers it needs in all needed areas, but this is a pipe dream. It would require the Swiss to know exactly how much of which workers are needed and to have the unusual capability and efficiency to have all workers in their training pipelines pan out. Even then, with fanciful planning and efficiency, it's not clear that there are enough Swiss people to fill all needed positions.

Comment Re:Now adjust the price (Score 2) 29

This time around, Google is 3.8 trillion, Meta is $1.6 trillion, Microsoft is $3.6 trillion, Amazon is $2.5 trillion, nVidia is $4.4 trililon, Apple is $4.1 Trillion....

This bubble is just massively bigger than the dotcom bubble, with just one of the big players this time being valued even adjusting for inflation more than all the big players of the dotcom era put together, and there being a fair number more of them this time. It dwarfs the 2007 bubble in these top few players alone. When this pops, it's going to be mind numbingly severe fall..

The dollar numbers are certainly much larger now. However, the PE ratios and the PEG ratios are nowhere near dot-com bubble levels. It could be argued that all the current AI sales will pop all of a sudden, but that's totally different from 25 years ago when the sales were never there in the first place. Only a few companies like Tesla and Palantir have dot-com level PE ratios, and those valuations are indeed crazy.

Comment Re:we have to many Ph.D's and when you need to do (Score 1) 62

we have to many Ph.D's and when you need to do this to keep your slot = the college system is broken.

They are students not PhDs. And you don't "need" to do this to keep "your slot". Nobody is entitled to a slot. What you have to earn is not owed to you.

It's a competitive system, and you have to maintain certain level of merit and academic progress.

There is a right way. Either follow the rules or quit, and go do something more productive. And somebody deciding to become a criminal does not mean the system is broken.

There is intense competition in research, whether it's as a PhD candidate or afterwards in a research lab. Everyone is looking out for themselves, trying to figure out how they can grab as much credit for themselves as possible. Sabotage is rare, but stealing ideas (or rather hearing something legally and then running with that idea independently) is very common. In teams, each researcher is primarily concerned with how they can get recognized as an individual for promotions and bonuses and how they can pad their own resume. If anything, things get much more competitive after graduation.

Comment Re:Or alternatively... (Score 1) 30

... use the 1.85 million unemployed in Japan to pick the tomatoes. I doubt they're all wannabe rocket scientists or AI devs just waiting for their break.

The problem in Japan is that they restrict immigrant workers even more than the US. Just like most Americans, most Japanese wouldn't want to pick tomatoes (or any other farm product) because the wages are far too low for the difficulty of the work. Even unemployed Americans and Japanese would refuse to pick tomatoes for such a low wage accompanied by literally back-breaking work. That's why Trump's immigration crackdown is affecting American fruit and vegetable farmers so severely.

The only ways to combat this problem are (1) for farmers to pay more to pickers and for consumers to accept dramatically higher prices or (2) to use robots.

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