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Comment Re:I guess (Score 1) 118

I think that DeepSeek has proved you pretty definitively wrong already.

The thing that Westerners don't understand is that pretty much all of China's tech industry is open source, much less the effect that has on innovation. Rather than working in isolated silos of information like here, in China everyone has access to almost everything. This article delves into that a bit. I highly recommend his articles, check out the one about China's factories are like being in another world.

https://kdwalmsley.substack.co...

Comment Re:Power is hardly an issue for China (Score 2) 118

Power is a problem here, but not in China at all. This fellow lives and works in China, he writes mostly about business but his interests are more wide ranging, recently he's been researching the power industry. Worth browsing his Substack for this and other gems. Helps that he provides voluminous documentation is is a pretty good writer to boot.

https://kdwalmsley.substack.co...

Supply chain problems and shortages of everything we need to maintain the electric grid at present levels, let alone build new capacity. Prices are blowing out, and we have severe backlogs on natural gas turbines, which are needed to build new natural gas-fired power plants. Same story on transformers—we need tens of millions of new transformers just to replace the old ones, and we can’t get those either. It’s a problem across the entire grid. The grid expense is rising and nobody knows what the answer is.

We also are seeing a crunch in transmission of high-voltage power. In the United States, about 2,000 miles per year of high-voltage transmission about a decade ago, then it dropped to just 700 miles a year. And in 2023, only 55 miles of transmission. Recently a new project of 800 miles was canceled.

So not much is getting built, new demand is rising fast, and electric utilities are raising prices. Nationwide they have requested over $18 billion in rate increases, most of which will hit markets this year.

The system is already under heavy strain. A total of 2,600 gigawatts of electricity are planned across new projects, awaiting permitting and build. But that is more than twice what the United States produces now. These are projects that first need the supply chains fixed, nuclear reactors built, natural gas turbines manufactured and installed, and the electric grid upgraded. New supply won’t come for years, but the power demands for AI are hitting right now, and will double by 2030. Just keeping up with that means we need to more than triple the capacity of transformers.

Comment Re:I guess (Score 1) 118

The thing is, our oh-so-wise masters decided that if we banned our high tech chips that China would bend over and agree to be reamed because there was no other possible source in the universe. Instead they proceeded to design and build their own chips, with the result that within a couple of years Huawei's phones were using domestically created chips that in many respects exceeded Apple's M1. So instead our owners decreed that if no one sold them lithography systems they would have to give up their goals of overtaking the Western chip industry. Predictably the result has been that in under a decade of development their homegrown litho systems are catching up to the best that we can do with 70 years of experience.

Where do you think they'll be in another decade?

Comment Re:There are always power constraints (Score 2) 118

That's because you don't know anything about the electrical industry, their electrical grid is the envy of power engineers the world over. It helps that they essentially started from a 'green fields' situation, rather than having a century of installed cruft to rip and replace. More important is that they allow engineering projects to be run by engineers rather than thundering herds of useless MBAs who wouldn't know which end of the screwdriver to hold onto.

Comment Re:A genius has been lost (Score 1) 42

Roommates had the album 'One Million Lawyers And Other Disasters', I always loved the title track.

Humankind has survived some disasters, I'm sure
Like locusts and flash floods and flu
There's never a moment when we've been secure
From the ills that the flesh is heir to
If it isn't a war, it's some gruesome disease
If it isn't disease, then it's war
But there's worse still to come, and I'm asking you please
How the world's gonna take any more?

(CHORUS:)
In ten years we're gonna have one million lawyers
One million lawyers, one million lawyers
In ten years we're gonna have one million lawyers
How much can a poor nation stand?

Comment Re:Hate to side with China, but ... (Score 2) 111

These idiots are of the opinion that everyone is dying for access to the US market. They think that without unfettered access to US markets and the US banking system any country's economy will collapse overnight. Of course Russia has shown decisively that's not true, and China is giving the middle finger to the 15% of its exports that come here and it's already hitting the MIC hard. Without the magnets and rare earth elements that only China can supply Boeing, for example, is totally screwed.

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