js7a's Journal: Does Iran already have nukes?

Given what we've learned about A.Q. Khan's operation, what are the chances that Iran doesn't already have at least 10 atomic bombs?

Wouldn't jump to conclusions...

[snjoseph]

While I think both India and Pakistan's announcements that they'd both developed nukes caught US "intelligence" by surprise, I also think that, with Pakistan, the US sort of let a lot of things slide since they were considered such an important ally. It's a similar story with the Taliban, which was basically a Pakistani client: the US let Pakistani intelligence back the Taliban and all the jihadi groups until--oops!--they realized that these forces were being used to set up attacks on the US. My guess is th

Re:Wouldn't jump to conclusions...

[js7a]

Bill Mueller has admitted that the FBI has less than 100 Farsi translators, and essentally that their Farsi translators were compromised internally, as reported by Siebel Edwards.

What makes you think that if Libya could obtain what they did from A.Q. Kahn and his ilk, that Iraq couldn't build it all internally over the past dozen years that the U.S. has been focused on Iraq?

Re:Wouldn't jump to conclusions...

[snjoseph]

What makes you think that if Libya could obtain what they did from A.Q. Kahn and his ilk

All Libya had was mustard gas and some other chemical stuff. Anyone can acquire that; the "nuclear club" is somewhat more exclusive than the "mustard club."

that Iraq couldn't build it all internally over the past dozen years that the U.S. has been focused on Iraq?

You mean Iran, surely?

Re:Wouldn't jump to conclusions...

[js7a]

My understanding is that Lybia had much more than mustard gas. They had the unassembled equipment necessary to refine uranium.

Re:Wouldn't jump to conclusions...

[snjoseph]

They had the unassembled equipment necessary to refine uranium.

What on earth does that mean? That they had some aluminum which they hadn't yet got around to rolling up into tubes? Permit me to remain unimpressed.

Re:Wouldn't jump to conclusions...

[js7a]

U.S. finds advanced nuke centrifuges in Libya [216.26.163.62]; Libya's black market deals shock nuclear inspectors [guardian.co.uk]; more here: [globalsecurity.org]

Libya initiated the dialog in mid-March 2003 when it requested the UK to broker talks with the US on weapons of mass destruction.... Libya allowed US inspectors to visited weapons sites where they saw centrifuges for enriching uranium, which was more advanced than Washington thought.... Libya denied that enriched uranium had been produced.

Speaking on background, a British official said Libya was

In related news

[freejung]

Colin Powell has one last go [xinhuanet.com] at convincing the world once again that somebody has WMD on extremely flimsy evidence. You would think that at least they would have the sense not to use the guy who got caught blatantly lying about it last time. But then again, it worked before, why not give it another try?

Re:In related news

[js7a]

Rice should be a lot less forthright, "Bin Laden Determined to Strke in the U.S." being a historical document and not a warning. But then again, Powell is still probably conflicted over Vietnam. So we got something worse. Let's hope they give the pendulum a hard enough push so it swings back to Kucinich's territory, or at least Dean's.

Re:In related news

[freejung]

Let's hope they give the pendulum a hard enough push so it swings back

Yeah, just so long as they don't break the string...