There is a Nature article on this topic from just 2 days ago: https://www.nature.com/article...
It's also in the eyes of the beholder to decide what accounts as 'global crop failure'. I'd say only a 10% drop would be very disruptive to our world as we know it, while 20-30% are easily enough to force us into global wars.
Above article calculates a 94.6% chance of that failure for wheat until 2050 - that is in 25 years from now.
Additionally there are plenty of crop failures already:
Climate-Related Agricultural Disasters 2022-2025:
Major Drought Events
2022 | Europe | €25-30 billion | European Mega-Drought
Worst drought in 500+ years reduced soil moisture to second-lowest level in 50 years, causing 16% corn and 15% sunflower yield losses.
2022 | China | $7.6 billion | Yangtze Basin Heat-Drought
Record-breaking 70+ days above 40C affected 2.2 million hectares across nine provinces, severely damaging late rice crops.
2020-2023 | Horn of Africa | $1.5 billion livestock losses | Multi-Season Drought
Five consecutive failed rainy seasons created driest conditions in 40+ years, killing 9.5 million livestock and affecting 43,000 human deaths.
2022-2023 | Argentina | $14 billion | Worst Drought in 60+ Years
Eight heatwaves and La Niña effects caused 43% soybean production collapse from 43.9 to 25 million tons.
Devastating Floods
2022 | Pakistan | $12.94 billion | Century Flood
Monsoon rainfall 726% above normal in Sindh destroyed 80% rice crop, 88% cotton, and 61% sugarcane production.
2022-2024 | Australia | $650M-1B AUD | Repeated Flooding
Multiple flood events destroyed 85% Queensland soybean crop and reduced cattle herds by 475,000 animals.
Wildfire Destruction
2023 | Canada | Not specified | Record Wildfire Season
15 million hectares burned (largest in Canadian history) with smoke reducing photosynthesis during critical May-June growing period.
2022 | Europe | €13-21 billion annual | Second-Worst Fire Year
900,000 hectares burned in EU, including 365,000 hectares in protected agricultural areas.
2024 | USA | $16.59 billion | Combined Drought-Heat-Fire
Wildfire component caused $1.8 billion in direct agricultural damage alongside drought and heat losses.
Pest Outbreaks
2016-2024 | Global (78 countries) | $9.4 billion annually in Africa | Fall Armyworm Expansion
Spread from 6 African countries to 78 worldwide, causing massive corn and crop losses across sub-Saharan Africa.
2022 | South Africa | Not specified | Largest Locust Outbreak in 25 Years
Destroyed 5 million hectares of pastureland following six-year drought that created ideal breeding conditions.
2020-2023 | Horn of Africa | 2.3M tons grain saved | Desert Locust Crisis
Required treatment of 2.3 million hectares to prevent losses equivalent to feeding 15+ million people annually.
Plant Disease Epidemics
2024 | Europe | €2.9 billion annually | Potato Late Blight Crisis
New fungicide-resistant strains emerged as "greatest threat to European potato production in years."
2005-2023 | Florida, USA | 80% production decline | Citrus Greening (HLB)
Reduced citrus production from 240 million boxes (2003-04) to 16.1 million boxes (2022-23).
2012-ongoing | Mexico | 50% production loss | Coffee Leaf Rust
Temperature increases above 1,200m elevation enabled disease expansion into previously unaffected highland areas.
Heat Wave Impacts
2022 | India | $159 billion economy-wide | Wheat Production Crisis
Early season heatwaves reduced wheat yields by 10-15% and forced India to ban wheat exports.
2024 | India | 3.2 million hectares affected | Multiple Climate Stressors
109 districts classified as very high climate risk, with projected 20% rice, 19% wheat, and 18% corn yield losses by 2050.
Combined Weather Disasters
2023 | USA | $21+ billion | Severe Weather Complex
Major disasters and severe weather caused over $21 billion in crop losses, with $9.9 billion remaining uninsured.
2024 | USA | Not specified | Hurricane-Heat-Drought Triple
Hurricanes, heat, and drought created compound stress across major agricultural regions during critical growing seasons.