"Why do people believe that our current broadband speeds, both wireless and wired, would remain at ADSL2 and even LTE for much more than another 5 years? I mean, there is already VDSL2 tech (ironically, the NBN plans on using this in multi-story dwellings), and wireless has had and is projected to have a bandwidth growth profile that is just incredible."
Five years ago I was paying $120/mth for 60G of data. Now I'm paying $100/mth for 200G of data. Fixed on-a-good-day-5Mbps. It started as 8Mbps but as more people have built onto the copper network the speeds have dropped. Private industry of all flavours have done nothing to make the copper faster - its the same pathetic copper network that has been in the ground here since the suburb was built 20 years ago. Those data prices have only fallen recently because NBNCo has added extra backhaul into the city which cuts out Telstra and their gouging.
Wireless, through Telstra since they're the only ones who provide coverage here - 3km from the CBD - will sell me 20G of data for $100/mth. If the planets are in the right alignment, that might give me 4Mbps. My parents who are only another few kms away from me cannot get a phone line. So no ADSL. But they can get a NextG dongle from Telstra and get anywhere up to 1Mbps.
Politically biased? No, biased against stupidity. One party's idea of broadband under the OPEL program was 12Mbps. They haven't changed their minds since 2007, they still think that 12Mbps should be fast enough for everyone. Except the rich. For the rich suburbs they'll be quite happy to spend the chunk of the 10-20B pork barrel to give them speeds of up to 100Mbps, delivered by a hodge-podge of cable and FTTN whilst maintain the horrendous regulatory environment that pretty much gives Telstra the power to do what-ever they wish whilst their competitors have to take all of the complaints to the regulator who can take months to make a decision. More of the "private industry doing it better" (where it = screwing over consumers and other companies).
NBNCo are working towards giving most Australians access to a fibre network with a regulatory environment that favours no single provider. That is a good thing. They are actively fixing broadband blackspots and providing a single, common price for bandwidth be it wireless or fixed. That is a good thing. They are doing what no private company will do (replacing copper with fibre) and doing it in a fair manner. That is a good thing too. They've also planned to make the network profitable, which is also a good thing.
Most importantly, suggesting that FTTH is overkill for Australia is down-right obnoxious. Australia can afford to do it. Australian's deserve the best solution for the money our Government is spending. Spending the money now means that future generations have the opportunity to put the network to uses that we haven't even dreamed of yet, much like the workers spreading the copper network 80 years ago had no idea that one day we'd be arguing about ripping it up because we can't get enough bandwidth out of it.
