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Submission + - Statistical suspicions in Iran's Election (theatlantic.com)

hoytak writes: "An expert in electoral fraud, professor Walter Melbane, released a detailed analysis (pdf) of available data in Iran's controversial election (summary here). While not finding significant indications of fraud, he notes that all the deviations from the predicted model are in Ahmadinejad's favor: "In general, combining the 2005 and 2009 data conveys the impression that a substantial core of the 2009 results reflected natural political process... [These] stand in contrast to the unusual pattern in which all of the notable discrepancies between the support Ahmadinejad actually received and the support the model predicts are always negative. This pattern needs to be explained before one can have confidence that natural election processes were not supplemented with artificial manipulations.""

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