Comment Re:Suggests abiogenesis is easy (Score 1) 104
There was already an argument that we should expect life to be somewhat easy since if not, we'd expect it to have arisen somewhat late on Earth's existence, not soon after.
What do you define as "soon" and "late"? Depending on how you define "complex life" and when you consider this planet to start being non-viable for life, Earth hosts "life" for only 13% - ~45% of its existance. Some estimates put life as we know it only being viable for another 500 million years, others say out to 1.5 billion years. If we say life started 2.6 billion years ago and say humans can exist for only another 500 million, then intelligent life only gets less than 6% of this planet's existance to function. If we only have 6% of this planet's existance with which to work out how to survive the Sun's expansion, did life start out late or early?
Personally, I used to be generally skeptical of AI being the Great Filter
To leverage off of Silo (TV show), what if someone created nano-bots as a weapon, unleashed them on the enemy, only to find out that they couldn't be controlled and proceeded to wipe out everything living? It's not clear if whatever it was that wrecked the planet in that scenario also died. This is another version of the Terminator world where technology created to defeat an enemy turns upon (all) humans.