SailFish* (Unlike bada) can run Android APPs in a sort of compatibility mode. It can also be coaxed to load many of Google Play Services (but that breaks Google's EULA). So, most likely, very few people will develop native sailfish, even in Russia.
If Anything, this creates critical mass for affordable/Quality phones running the OS. Just imagine, say, a MODERN YottaPhone running Sailfish.
Having said that, carriers have demonstrated that they do not realy care for a Third ecosystem, all they really need is the "Threat" of a third ecosystem to restrain Google a tad.
* Also BB10 OS, but that is a whole different issue.