Comment Re:True genius is to replace gas pumps, slowly. (Score 1) 94
Again, you are confusing product categories with product/market fit.
Then you're not properly explaining the difference. Personally, after a point it is a distinction without difference.
I'd point out that additional models are only needed if current models are hopelessly unfit for some segment of the life cycle.
There's a lot more that can sink a model than just that. Just being "ugly" can do it. Plus, competition is generally good, which means that you'll have 3-4 companies all competing for the same market segment (more or less), which tends to give customers better options at lower prices.
My point is that the current notion of acquiring new land and contracting new charger station have various flaws. That converting existing pumps at gas stations to chargers is like a far wiser move.
Well, of course, but it has its own benefits as well. You see, the existing pumps are part of the existing paradigm, and "most" gas stations aren't necessarily going to be all that supportive of it, at least for now.
For example, installing Tesla chargers might help the direct owner of a Shell Station franchise, but it isn't going to help Shell.
The complexities of this, combined with things like possibly needing serious power refits to supply the electricity necessary for charging, meant that at least initially, while Tesla was building its charging network to help it sell more cars, greenfield development was generally faster and easier.
I expect otherwise. I think people in EVs will behave pretty much like people in ICEs. That they won't think about refueling/recharging until they are low. And when that warning light alert pops up, the locations identified by our century old Darwinian process of locating gas stations will provide a convenient spot.
I think that you're failing to account for new technology. Certainly, there will be those types out there, but the early adopters (who I will agree isn't going to be a 100% match for later adopters) are showing that most are perfectly willing to plug in most nights.
Even then, charging rates with a home charger are decent enough that if the driver notices they're at 20% - and the car should be warning them about that, they plug in overnight, and within 10 hours the car is at 80% or so, without the need to visit a faster charger and sit there waiting.
For longer trips, the software already takes the route into account and will plan the charging stops for you.
On restaurants - Yes, I kind of figure on them being for guests, used as an attraction for more customers.
Government involvement. Gov't offers money to acquire land and build charging stations. So people do that, it doesn't matter if it makes sense. Gov't is paying for it. Gov't didn't consider ongoing maintenance, it wasn't part of the deal, there is no gov't support. So the developers have little incentive to do so. They got their gov't money and are gone
Fair enough.
On gas stations - it might be better to rename them convenience stores, because that's actually how most of them make most of their money, gas is just a draw. that's why I figure that convenience stores will start shifting towards business models that assume a bit longer of a stop. Less "stop and go" and more "come in for a few!". IE rather than grabbing hot dogs off those roller things, you can get a burger or sub sandwich made to order. More seating. Etc...
Thing to remember is that gas stations actually close and open on a regular basis, as businesses. There's a lot of obviously ex-stations in my area. The newer places tend to have much bigger store parts attached, and yes, some of them have chargers. But I see the chargers closer to the highway than in the middle of the residential area of town.