Ultimately it won't matter either way. Open source models will get better. They don't even need to achieve absolute parity with the frontier models they just need to get to 'good enough for most tasks most normies need to do'.

Some of them are probably already knocking on the door of that, and where they fail the frontier models often do as well.

Even if GenAI has dramatically increasing your business productivity, $100 a month per white collar workers becomes a pretty big expense item on the balance sheet pretty quickly. GPUs get better and cheaper all the time, eventually the market will deliver memory at reasonable costs again.. Hardware under the desk is usually cheaper than hardware behind the glass or in the cloud. Especially as the upgrade cycle has stretched from 2 years to 5 and longer. The open models get better, the GPUs get a few more compute units, in some not so distant future 32 of VRAM becomes such that it fits in $`000 price target Graphics/AI Accelerator package...even if that turns the $300 mini PCs you are putting in the cubes into $1300 dollar mini PCs, well if you get a least a year of use out them its cheaper than general Claude subscription.

Given the cloud AI boys can't make money at that price point now, it should be clear the model of selling everyone and the brother a subscription isnt realistic. It is going to make more sense for most people to 'own something'.

This is not say if you hosting some server with agents, or doing very specialized engineer or medical work as as opposed to more general office work Cloud AI won't be the sensible path forward. It very well could be, probably will be. If on the other hand your job is cleaning up the South East Region P&L spreedsheet for the your chain of HVAC dealers probably not so much; or if you're a home maker need to work up Dinosar birthday invites for little Tommy's sixth..

I think there is room to argue though, that distillation might violate copyright while training on large volumes of large material does not.

At that point you are modeling a model. I think you could argue that it is a bit like copying a novel where you hand type it; adding lots of typographical errors a long the way; get laze and leave out a chapter or two that you don't feel moves the story a long much, then slap a new title on a call it your own.

I don't think any court anywhere would say did not violate the original authors copyright. This is why we have courts someone has to effectively make an analog for events that happen that reflect existing laws and convince a jury or at least a judge that analog is correct. As much as everyone wants to believe that is some kind of perfect deterministic process, but not really. If it was we would not have appellate courts, and the SCOTUS would never reverse itself.

Honestly about the only compelling argument for how these cases will go; IMHO is that "Si Valley Bros have a lot of cash to spend on lawyers, more than most of the plaintiffs or defendants they might face; that is usually favorable."

I do honestly believe courts usually get it right, They are run by well educated people who are genuinely gifted at absorbing information quickly in most cases. I think we can see this in complex cases where we have expertise; think about the Google implementing Java APIs case for example or the SCO's nonsense copyright claims on Linux. Despite enormous effort and resource commitment to cloud the issues, the courts saw thru the BS cloud. What is important there though is those cases were broadly speaking not new territory, the arguments and key decision points of law were well known.

AI models likely represent a need to invent new "legal tests" and frankly I don't see how anyone can be certain what the outcomes will be.

They are running out of money. Their costs have exceeded the revenue for a long time, and the Anthropic is pretty clearly winning the product delivery race.

Altman is just spreading BS in the hope he can maybe get others to take their foot of the throttle, so he stop using gas he does not have.

Anthropic and X have an opportunity here to break OpenAI once and for all and I hope they do; the world will be better off with Altman out of influence.

That was long post to say "I have no understanding of evangelical Protestantism."

  This is not say there are not a number self described evangelical Protestants who also have as little understanding. These are better described as 'cultural-christian' with lower case Cs, as they have never read a Bible either.

However there is no Christian sect / organization with any significant following that believes anything like what you described there. If anything it sounds more like you're writing about Islam.

Which again points back to how un-serious the effort to really contain this stuff is.

First anyone who has developed, tested, or security-tested web applications knows, that denying POSTs inst going to give you a 'read-only' web.

First a lot of applications, even ones that use GET and POST the right way from the client would in the past allow GET, maybe even fat-GET to update data by sending to a endpoint normally POSTed to, just swap the post body content up to URL params and go. More modern stacks won't do this but there is plenty of old software out there.

Second lots of GETs are idempotent, but not really, An app might GET a document, but have a separate audit page where what users accessed a document is displayed reflected, even a simple hit counter on some otherwise site combined with time delays could be used as side channel; over which two agents could communicate. A lot wiki(s) keep and display stats....

So I come back to; either nobody was really watching these 'experiments' or they are lying about their real nature and the real expected outcomes. As an example why has/is this agent continuing to query this obscure wiki after its been full crawled five times over... Would seem to be an interesting thing if I was trying to monitor what an antigenic system was doing and was interested in things OpenAI should be interested in like failure modes, reasoning behavior, efficiency, context management...

Coming back to what I said the other day there wasn't real need to be able to follow a complex web of often deceptive agent to agent chatter to have caught and prevented this anti-social/crimes/prohibited activities, basic logging and monitoring should have flagged all kinds of things. OpenAI researchers are not stupid, they are not uniformed, they know how do to basic defensive IT, someone is making a conscious choice to 'see no evil' or they are pretending about it.

not on that; think about all the model propagation that has to occur. That is a lot of 20GB+ blobs to shovel around to endpoints.

We can fuss about over subscription etc, but at this end of the day this sort of thing shifts a lot of costs onto largely unsuspecting last mile ISPs too. I don't feel to bad for specutrum and comcast who will have peering with CDNs near their largest customer pools, but the few mom and pops and municipals that haven't been consolidated - well this kinda thing could suck for them if it gets 'big enough'

Decades of near zero interest rates and balance sheet expansion will do that to those who were previously rational financial thinkers and risk-aware investors.

The company that just had their model "escape" an hack a competitor, while producing a haystack of reasoning output and agent to agent communication their post mortem said was incredibly difficult to follow; decides to just go live with something that will make reasoning even more difficult to follow.

Maybe this technique is harder to audit, I am not familiar with it I don't know, but I think this just adds to the evidence they previous 'incident' was very much staged.

The important difference is there isn't one.

At not time were the powers really going to destroy the world with some kind of neuclear holocaust. MAD assured that would not happen.

Climate change is the same. Even if the threat proves to be real but the real, the scale of the calamity ( at least for those in the developed world ) isnt at all existential. In fact more like life will go on pretty much as usual well past 2 or 3 degrees higher. Ultimately the real consequences to the degree there are any will be mostly borne by people in distant places few voters could locate on a map if they tried.

In short from a policy perspective (not a moral one mind you) our leaders know both the most popular and practical actions are to pay the issue varying amounts of lip service depending on the economic mood while not actually doing anything to materially costly to address it, because as a practical matter it won't matter. It *could* even solve some long time problems like the middle east, if it actually is economic ruinous for those places.

For the individual there is nothing you are going to do that is going have any climate impact, all of it is determined by much larger forces, not all of them even related to human activity.

You can feel however you want but that is all it is feelings, not facts. Just like in the 80s and every decade prior a certain segment of the populations always FEELS the end of times is nigh! Reality has always had other ideas. Eventually one generation of these people will of course have to be correct, but it won't be this and that much should be obvious from the last 50 years of dire predictions on the subject...

No it makes it clear that is exactly what is going on. Look if all it did was find an open proxy or something and go nuts nobody would be impressed at all and everyone would reasonably conclude it was staged/deliberate. Basically they had to put up enough road blocks and make sure the attack chain would contain enough steps that to human who is used to getting bored, tired, lost trying to follow enough steps looks at it and is bamboozled the number of things, without realzing that each thing is trivial enough...

They obviously had no basic egress monitoring, no IPS/IDS sensors, no flagging of unusual traffic like say to competitors, nothing...or they did have those things and everyone studiously avoided looking at or attempting to understand any of the alerts that surely must have fired for days.

Is it hard to understand the haystack of AI reasoning and agent to agent comms? Sure, but detecting this and stopping this required NONE of that! It is difficult to conclude multiple technical persons at OpenAI at the very least reasonably did know or reasonably should have know the systems were behaving in anti-social and likely illegal ways with outside resources, and chose to take no action.

I always assumed where it came to TOS a couple things.

First Kirk says 'there are only 12 others LIKE her'; the implication being the fleet even then consisted of a lot more ships, but probably smaller and less capable than Constitution Class, which would have been a 'ship of the line' so to speak.

This seems almost a hard requirement given how many assets they visit, space stations, research out posts, listening stations, etc.. It does not seem like independent commercial interests would have built out all that, especially in the context of the 'post scarcity' world even TOS mostly operates in. I mean who dreams of hanging out on some small space station shuffling Quadrotriticale between transport ships? At the very least someone has to tell you 'it is noble work' or provide so motivation, so there has to be a command element to the economy. I digress, the critical point here the existence of these transports implies there are lots of other space faring vessels even in this early cannon. By extension it would make sense than Star Fleet would not be having captial ships returning to base for supplies etc, but probably at the least has tenders and things of the like in it.

As far as encountering new disasters again forward exploration is the Enterprises role, they are largely operating in least explored regions of known space furthest from support, they are seeking out 'new' things.

Presumably the other twelve Star Ships are also experiencing similarity wild events; we see this in the Planet Killer, where Enterprise is the second the party after Constellation.

Finally yes they do publish the results. In TNG's "The Naked Now" the have a complete record of the events of the "The Naked Time" in the in the ships database. So at least within Star Fleet the pretty much everything another ship encounters is available and searchable to you including the logs of the ships command crew, at least if you have clearance.

Right try visiting any large financial if you don't play nicely with shape, nudata, and friends.

Anubis is super irritating too; but the flip side is what are smaller sites supposed to do. The world collectively decided terms of service for anything not behind an authentication wall are to be freely ignored. "F*** your robots.txt" seems to be the mantra of the AI cowboys who have turned the scripting a scraping up to 11.

There "open" web won't have room for humans much longer.

Probably some version of shell company and/or reselling equipment from manufactures that nominally do not make stuff for export and can be sloppy with BOM documentation; coupled with studiously avoiding asking questions that might lead toward any material knowledge of controls violations.

Man we live in a world where phantomfive does not even read the sentences he is quoting. Maybe the problem is YOU and maybe it is a symptom of to much screen time.

Screen time is killing our kids, no wait screen time is making our kids smarter than ever, maybe screen time does not really matter, omg screen time is killing our kids...

For individuals there really is only one reasonable course here. Ignore the sensational studies and news. Make sure you kids get some play with things that are not screens. Make sure not all the screen time is 'games' and at least some of it cognitive activities even if it is writing little text games in python/ruby/perl/etc that AI could crap out in seconds, letting them think work and solve a problem matters.

wait 20 years for the science to catch up as it has on cholesterol and saturated fats; tell yourself you did your best and let your kids know to not mess up your grand kids they way you did them.