Comment Re:Tesla was a leader (Score 1) 92
I think Toyota were in a good position to make these judgements, given that for a long time they were the leaders in developing HEVs and still sell more hybrids than anyone else. They knew the battery technology, where it was going and what it could or could not achieve. Hydrogen was an opportunity and I'm not sure I think they made a huge mistake in trying it. It didn't work out but they exhausted that as best as they could and so at least we know for sure. So while they should own their failures, I think we need to respect their call on battery tech. In the interim they still sold buckets more hybrids than anyone else sold as EVs, they still dominate the market. And it's still true - batteries are heavy, slow to charge, lithium doesn't do well in the cold and is prone to damage. Capacity is better but cars with long range weigh nearly a ton more than their ICE rivals.
The criticism is that they haven't innovated but why would they have tried? Tesla sourced finance from massive amounts of government money and Chinese brands are unquestionably being propped up by their own government. Now Kia rely on China, as do the Geely group for Volvo and others. BMW are catching up but they're still going to be expensive. VW is not owning the market. Toyota will have looked at it and seen the competition burning through money and come to the conclusion that it was maybe not worth the fight
Bottom line is that the most successful brands out there are from China. Japan doesn't control the battery tech right now, it's all CATL and BYD. Maybe it's half political but I think Toyota has realised that if they can't control the battery production then they're not going to invest heavily in EVs. They know from experience that it's all about the batteries while FSD is a side show. IF they do manage to figure out solid state then my impression is that Toyota will be 100% in the game and we'll see a massive shift in their plans.