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Comment A small effect [Re:DEI is to blame] (Score 1) 140

Not sure what your point is, but let me phrase this differently.

Even assuming that DEI hires do exist, from the data, the number of non-black people who failed to be hired for professorships in England because a black person was hired instead is 1%. So, if all DEI hiring of black people didn't exist, the number of non-black people hired would increase by a factor of 1.01.

This is a small effect.

Comment Re:Its time to consider leaving the planet (Score 1) 194

as a long term plan for some of the population. This catastrophe won't go away in years, it will take decades even if we drastically curtail C02 emissions. O'neill cylinders should be part of the long term plan.

O'Neill settlements, of course, must be run with zero fossil fuels supplying energy, and with all manufacturing completely closed cycle: no atmosphere, rivers, or landfills to exhaust waste into. And the ecology likewise a closed system.

Once you have solved the problem of the closed-ecology of an orbital O'Neill settlement, you need only implement that approach on the Earth.

So, YES! Let's push forward with O'Neill space settlements! Because we need that technology for Earth.

Comment Re:DEI is to blame (Score 1) 140

I guess I assumed it went without saying to the slashdot audience that stupid use of statistics is not helpful. Apparently I assumed wrong.

As a dozen old slashdot posts will tell you, correlation is not causation. Statistics are not a substitute for thinking, they are a tool for separating signal from random noise, but you still have to figure out what the signal means.

Comment Re:DEI is to blame (Score 2, Insightful) 140

Both things can be true. White men have had it easy historically but that doesn't mean we must over-correct now.

Optimally, we want to correct to exactly the right amount.

Several things to keep in mind. First, yes, racism (and by that I mean racism against blacks) still exists. Second, not everything is racism. Third, statistics are a good way to detect whether racism exists, but, viewing 3 in light of 2, you can't use statistics to ascribe any particular firing, or failure of one candidate to get a job, to racism. Finally, fourth, when a metric becomes a target, it ceases to be useful as a metric ("Goodhart's Law") (because people then try to game the metric, not the underlying thing being measured.

And, going back to point 1: not only does racism still exist, it tends to be invisible if it's not aimed at you (and sometimes even when it is aimed at you.) The fact that you don't see racism doesn't mean it's not there.

Comment Re:Simulation (Score 3, Interesting) 31

Why cant they try to simulate processes in the organs via software? I think that should be the end goal. They take your dna, add it in the dataset and then calculate what you need to take to have best outcome.

This is a good end goal, but we are orders of magnitude away from the calculational ability to do that. What we do know is how DNA codes for proteins. What we are just solving (via AI-- not large language models, but actual calculational models) is how proteins fold into shape. What we are beginning to understand, but don't yet fully understand, is how the protein-making process is turned on and off at the right times to regulate the processes of life. What we can't yet do at all is unravel how the machinery of making proteins turns into the entire complicated chemical processes of the organism.

We have a long way yet to go.

Comment Re: Incredible! (Score 4, Interesting) 12

Light comes from a hot metal filament in a light bulb too, or a LED, so what fusion has to do with this is a mystery.

The intensity of light coming out of a black hole's accretion disk is orders of magnitude larger than any lightbulb or LED. If all you knew about astronomy was how stars work, yes, you'd expect that brightly-glowing things would be powered by fusion. But no, turns out that gravitational contraction, for ultra-massive compact objects, can be amazingly effective in producing radiative energy out of the potential energy of infalling matter.

The sun's light comes from the surface, the fusion is in the core. It is highly doubtful that the radiation blasted hell around these black holes is hospitable to any kind of life.

True that! (This is one of the gaping flaws in the science of the film "Interstellar:" the astronauts (and their robot) would all die very quickly of radiation exposure.)

Comment Anecdotes are not data [Re:Good, Bad, and Ugly] (Score 3, Insightful) 58

... I'm also not a statistician, and I only have a single data point. But it is still reasonable to conclude from this one instance ...

It is reasonable to conclude absolutely nothing from this one instance.

Some guy taking an unknown and uncalibrated amount of a mushroom of unverified origin, and doing this with no medical knowledge, no medical advice, and no medical supervision gives exactly no useful information about the clinical efficacy.

Comment Re:Truly radical, or by accepted dogma? (Score 1) 104

you ignoring the part where reports say things like "if confirmed, this result means..." or "According to senior scientist x, further work is needed to see if this conclusion holds up."

That is too optimistic on the listening. A lot of people out there only heard "stay six feet away from people" and logicked, "What, a disease can only travel six feet then it drops dead?" No scientist said anything remotely close to that, but that is the reasoning people ended up with because they weren't listening at all.

The six foot distance was from when various scientists hypothesized that the virus was communicated by large (>10 micron) droplets, e.g., the size droplets which would be produced by sneezing or coughing. These droplets don't remain suspended in the air, but fall to the ground, and hence if you are out of ballistic transport range, you don't inhale them. Good conjecture, but it turned out that this particular virus was communicated by small (micron size) aerosols, which do remain suspended in the air for long periods of time. (Took some very good epidemiology work to nail that down.)

Comment Re:Truly radical, or by accepted dogma? (Score 3, Insightful) 104

What we once thought was true may not be. But established dogma digs in its heels... Look at COVID. The powers that be were unwilling to admit 'we do not know, yet,' and the narrative changed multiple times within the same week. That bred distrust and split people along political party lines.

I was paying a lot of attention to what the actual medical scientists were saying at the time, and they were saying "we don't know. Here's our best guess at the moment" over and over and over.

But people were desperate to hear definite conclusions, not "here's what we think so far." If you think you were hearing "here are things we know for sure," that was you ignoring the part where reports say things like "if confirmed, this result means..." or "According to senior scientist x, further work is needed to see if this conclusion holds up."

Science can be bought. Results can be skewed, fabricated.

For the most part, results are skewed by the popular press, who want to be the first to report what is new and exciting, not "here's a study that confirms things that preliminary results had already suggested."

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